Listen, everyone is trying to guess the right turnout model, which is why all the polls are all over the place. The averages will probably end up being fairly accurate, as usual, but this election is pretty unpredictable.
I agree with YC here. The turnout model is a big reason why the polls could be spot on or fail completely, and thanks to the few amounts of polling, we could be taken by surprise, either by the D incumbents winning handily, or the Rs taking more than 4 seats in the senate race.
(Personally, based on the early vote, I would lean towards the former, but I would actually have to wait for the election to confirm)
