CBS News / YouGov: Braun +3 (IN), Sinema +3 (AZ), Tied in FL

[UncleSam]

Word of caution: young voters make up too large a portion of the electorate in AZ and IN in these (15-17% under 30 lol...). Florida looks about right demographically (12%, which might still be high but isn’t unreasonable).

When dealing with online polls I’d bet this is the biggest struggle.

Overall these results indicate that Donnelly has a tough road ahead, Florida should go Dem narrowly, and AZ will be a pure tossup. Personally I think that Ds got way oversampled in the AZ poll but everyone knows I think McSally is going to win by 5-7 so I probably don’t need to repeat that again

Gilium+1 on Desantis in this poll, and Ducey +13. Pretty good results to Ds in both races considering the senate outcome.

[UncleSam]

So the AZ part is trash but IN and especially FL are fine? That’s really being hackish

I don't think anyone is saying that (well, no one who knows what they're talking about). I think that what people are saying is that the crosstabs for Arizona make less sense than the crosstabs in the other two polls, particularly in light of the early voting numbers thus far.

Personally I don't think any of these polls are 'better' in terms of likelihood of being correct, though I do think that their turnout models are conflicting. These polls would be higher quality if their models were more consistent and if they weren't purely conducted online.