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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  OR: DHM Research/OPB: Gov. Brown (D) +5, many undecided
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Author Topic: OR: DHM Research/OPB: Gov. Brown (D) +5, many undecided  (Read 827 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 16, 2018, 10:46:23 am »

New Poll: Oregon Governor by DHM Research/OPB on 2018-10-11

Summary: D: 40%, R: 35%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2018, 11:12:08 am »

DHM pulling an Emerson with all these undecideds.

Still a Safe D race, of course.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2018, 11:13:10 am »

Brown isn't going to lose. I know many here on Atlas get a hard-on at the thought of Oregon going Republican, but it's not happening, certainly not in a year like this.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2018, 11:14:21 am »

DHM pulling an Emerson with all these undecideds.

Still a Safe D race, of course.

If a Republican was up 5, would you call it a Safe R race?
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2018, 11:15:35 am »

DHM pulling an Emerson with all these undecideds.

Still a Safe D race, of course.

If a Republican was up 5, would you call it a Safe R race?

If it was a Republican version of Oregon in a Republican wave year, yes.

There is absolutely no way Kate Brown is losing in a Democratic wave year in a solidly Democratic state.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2018, 11:18:39 am »

DHM pulling an Emerson with all these undecideds.

Still a Safe D race, of course.

If a Republican was up 5, would you call it a Safe R race?

If it was a Republican version of Oregon, yes. There is absolutely no way Kate Brown is losing in a Democratic wave year in a solidly Democratic state.

I'm not arguing that she's going to lose, but I think there's a double standard for reading polls when a Republican is midly ahead versus a Democrat. So, if an incumbent Republican governor was up by 5 in Indiana or Missouri with 17% undecided, would it be safe R?
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2018, 11:19:10 am »

DHM pulling an Emerson with all these undecideds.

Still a Safe D race, of course.

If a Republican was up 5, would you call it a Safe R race?

If it was a Republican version of Oregon, yes. There is absolutely no way Kate Brown is losing in a Democratic wave year in a solidly Democratic state.

I'm not arguing that she's going to lose, but I think there's a double standard for reading polls when a Republican is midly ahead versus a Democrat. So, if an incumbent Republican governor was up by 5 in Indiana or Missouri with 17% undecided, would it be safe R?

In a Republican wave year, yes.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2018, 11:31:08 am »

DHM pulling an Emerson with all these undecideds.

Still a Safe D race, of course.

If a Republican was up 5, would you call it a Safe R race?

If it was a Republican version of Oregon, yes. There is absolutely no way Kate Brown is losing in a Democratic wave year in a solidly Democratic state.

I'm not arguing that she's going to lose, but I think there's a double standard for reading polls when a Republican is midly ahead versus a Democrat. So, if an incumbent Republican governor was up by 5 in Indiana or Missouri with 17% undecided, would it be safe R?

In a Republican wave year, yes.

Fair enough. But I still don't think that would be the case with most people here.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2018, 11:44:10 am »

DHM pulling an Emerson with all these undecideds.

Still a Safe D race, of course.

If a Republican was up 5, would you call it a Safe R race?

I realize you're talking to ON Progressive, but here's an example in my case: Some polls showed TN-GOV to be within 5, or even had the Democrat slightly ahead early on. I never moved it past Likely R, and I thought I was still being generous to Dean. The second polls started to shift away from him, I moved it back to Safe R. Had it been a Democratic midterm, I wouldn't have even moved it to Likely R to begin with.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2018, 11:44:24 am »

DHM pulling an Emerson with all these undecideds.

Still a Safe D race, of course.

If a Republican was up 5, would you call it a Safe R race?

If it was a Republican version of Oregon, yes. There is absolutely no way Kate Brown is losing in a Democratic wave year in a solidly Democratic state.

I'm not arguing that she's going to lose, but I think there's a double standard for reading polls when a Republican is midly ahead versus a Democrat. So, if an incumbent Republican governor was up by 5 in Indiana or Missouri with 17% undecided, would it be safe R?

In a Republican wave year, yes.

Fair enough. But I still don't think that would be the case with most people here.

Well there's the case of IceSpear with OK-Gov.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2018, 02:02:03 pm »

Brown isn't going to lose. I know many here on Atlas get a hard-on at the thought of Oregon going Republican, but it's not happening, certainly not in a year like this.

KGW said Buehler has a chance
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2018, 02:52:44 pm »

DHM pulling an Emerson with all these undecideds.

Still a Safe D race, of course.

If a Republican was up 5, would you call it a Safe R race?

There's this thing called fundamentals.
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Figueira
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2018, 04:59:52 am »
« Edited: October 17, 2018, 03:00:12 pm by Figueira »

Weird things happen at the state level so Likely D, but I don't see any good reason to expect Brown to lose.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2018, 09:06:51 am »

Weird things happen at the state level so Likely R, but I don't see any good reason to expect Brown to lose.

I think you made a typo. Wink
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Ἅιδης
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« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2018, 07:42:12 am »

Can anybody explain to me what's happening in Oregon?
Is it Brown's weakness or is it Buehler's strength that leads to the closeness of that race?
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Former Senator Zaybay
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« Reply #15 on: October 25, 2018, 07:50:59 am »

Can anybody explain to me what's happening in Oregon?
Is it Brown's weakness or is it Buehler's strength that leads to the closeness of that race?

Probably neither. OR is always close for gubernatorial elections. Brown won her special by 7 points. In 2014, the margin was 5 points. In 2010, it was 2 points. In 2006, it was 8 points. 2002, 3 points.

For some reason, one that I do not know off the top of my head, Rs do much better all around gubernatorially in the state. If Brown wins by only 6, then she would be having an average performance for the state.
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Hydera
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« Reply #16 on: October 25, 2018, 09:15:04 am »

Can anybody explain to me what's happening in Oregon?
Is it Brown's weakness or is it Buehler's strength that leads to the closeness of that race?

Probably neither. OR is always close for gubernatorial elections. Brown won her special by 7 points. In 2014, the margin was 5 points. In 2010, it was 2 points. In 2006, it was 8 points. 2002, 3 points.

For some reason, one that I do not know off the top of my head, Rs do much better all around gubernatorially in the state. If Brown wins by only 6, then she would be having an average performance for the state.


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My guess is that voters in denser areas are more comfortable voting Dem in Presidential elections but not in Gubernatorial elections.
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #17 on: October 28, 2018, 12:35:53 pm »

OR has a fairly consistent history in recent elections of having closer gubernatorial elections than one might expect from its presidential tendencies. 1998 was the last time Democrats won the election by double digits (and that was a landslide) and Democrats haven't cleared 50% since 2006. The last double digit win for a Governor before that was 36 years ago (in 1982; the last GOP win).

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Majority Dem Wins: 1986, 1994, 1998 & 2006
Plurality Wins: 1990, 2002, 2010, 2014 & 2016

Single Digit Dem Wins: 1986, 1990, 1994, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2016
Double Digit Dem Wins: 1998

So yeah, Dems have won the last 9 gubernatorial elections, but only 1 by more than 10 points and less than half with a majority of the vote (and none in the past 12 years). Just because a poll or a race looks close doesn't mean it's competitive. Combined with the EV data coming out of OR and the sheer overperformance of Dems even in the southeastern interior, there's not much action here.
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #18 on: October 28, 2018, 12:41:05 pm »

It's not like Buehler doesn't have a chance. Dennis Richardson won in 2016. But he hasn't led any good quality polls, so unfortunately it's Lean/Likely D.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #19 on: October 28, 2018, 10:55:02 pm »

OR has a fairly consistent history in recent elections of having closer gubernatorial elections than one might expect from its presidential tendencies. 1998 was the last time Democrats won the election by double digits (and that was a landslide) and Democrats haven't cleared 50% since 2006. The last double digit win for a Governor before that was 36 years ago (in 1982; the last GOP win).

Quote
Majority Dem Wins: 1986, 1994, 1998 & 2006
Plurality Wins: 1990, 2002, 2010, 2014 & 2016

Single Digit Dem Wins: 1986, 1990, 1994, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2016
Double Digit Dem Wins: 1998

So yeah, Dems have won the last 9 gubernatorial elections, but only 1 by more than 10 points and less than half with a majority of the vote (and none in the past 12 years). Just because a poll or a race looks close doesn't mean it's competitive. Combined with the EV data coming out of OR and the sheer overperformance of Dems even in the southeastern interior, there's not much action here.

And its senatorial tendencies, as well. Wyden won re-election by 20 points in 2016, if I am not mistaken.
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