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News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

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Author Topic: NYT/Siena: Gillum +5  (Read 564 times)
Roblox
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« on: October 28, 2018, 06:03:33 pm »

Another day, another poll showing Gillum ahead. A reminder that polls were not that far off in Florida in 2016.

Indeed, poll averages are actually pretty accurate in Florida, usually being within 2 points or so.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/fl/florida_governor_scott_vs_crist-3545.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/fl/florida_governor_scott_vs_sink_vs_chiles-1607.html

The exception is the 2016 senate race, where Rubio was ahead by 3.7 in the rcp average but won by nearly 8, but Patrick Murphy was a weak candidate who didn't get much outside support anyway.
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Economic: -5.55

Social: -6.26

My timeline-"Election night in America 2018: Nuclear Elmo" https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=303210.msg6460268#new
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