Well gotta hope polls are underestimating turnout at this point. Impressive, however.
Polls are estimating a certain turnout. In-case Beto gets a better turnout he can win.
But for pulling of this kind of an upset, Beto has to do better than 86-12 among Black votes. It has to be 90-91% for him. 60-36%, a lead of 24% is quite strong among Hispanics in Texas but he needs a few extra points here as well. The path is pretty clear -> Beto needs to cross 90% of the Black vote, 65% of the Hispanic Vote & then get huge turnout among Young voters & in Big Cities.
This is not unwinnable. The polls estimate a certain turnout akin to normal Mid-Terms. It is very likely that compared to 2014 or 2010, the turnout will be more favorable to Democrats.
Beto can over-perform the polls by 2-3% easily based on turnout, maybe more. If there are polls showing he is down only 2-3% odd, then Beto has a solid chance of a win !
The turnout is not some secret mystery. You can see turnout of Beto's target GOTV voters in every single precinct across TX here:
https://win.betofortexas.com/To be sure, it is a superb and commendable effort in comparison to previous TX statewide campaigns, but it doesn't look like enough to me to win.