Where does Kerry have a better chance?

[lidaker]

WV goes back to Kerry, I see. That's nice.

Now why will dems win Arkansas before Florida? Have they been particularly hit by the economic downswing or what? Bush won it pretty comfortably in 2000, what has happened since?

[lidaker]

WV goes back to Kerry, I see. That's nice.

Now why will dems win Arkansas before Florida? Have they been particularly hit by the economic downswing or what? Bush won it pretty comfortably in 2000, what has happened since?

Guess it depends what you define as "pretty comfortably" - Bush won Arkansas by 5.44% in 2000.

Arkansas has been hit fairly hard - they have a lot of "PMCs" and have pulled back maybe 2.5% points to the Dems.   Plus there is a fairly even distribution of political power in the state - Lots of Clinton folks still have their hands in things.

I have Arkansas running about +3 or so for Bush right now.

Florida on the other hand is economically in GREAT shape - best economy in the nation.

Brother Jeb (An outstanding Governor BTW) is hugely popular (Re-elected +13 in 2002) and the GOP controls every thing there is to control in that state.

Hispanics are trending to Bush fairly well in Florida (and nationwide actually by a marginal amount)

Old Seniors (70+ who vote Democratic) have died in greater numbers since 2000 than Young Seniors (60-70) who trend to the GOP.

Also, when military forces are stationed abroad they have to declare a state of residence - Many pick Florida (no state income tax) This helps Bush a tad also.

I have Bush +4 and growing stronger in Florida.

Allright. Always interesting to hear your views.

[lidaker]

Allright. Always interesting to hear your views.

Is that agreement or disagreement...?  

Agreement I guess... since I can't claim being more versed in this than you

However many polls have shown a dead heat in FL. If they love Jeb so much, shouldn't they reflect that even at this early stage?