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  AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
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Author Topic: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates  (Read 3127 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: October 30, 2018, 05:33:45 am »
« edited: October 30, 2018, 06:13:29 am by TheRocketRaccoon »

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-sinema-leads-mcsally-arizona-senate-race-n925876

H2H:
Sinema 50, McSally 44 (was 48-45)

All candidates:
Sinema 47, McSally 44, Green 6 (was 45-43-6)

AZ GCB: D+1 (47-46)

Trump approval 44/49

Sinema favourables 48/42 (was 46/33)

McSally favourables 43/45 lmao (was 40/42)

Sinema leads in already voted (44%), 51-44
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2018, 05:37:14 am »

but muh sinema arizona comments
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2018, 05:48:06 am »

Wow.  If Sinema is in this good shape, then Wacky Jacky must be too.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2018, 06:08:31 am »

Ahhhhhh
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Skye
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2018, 06:11:57 am »

Terrible poll for McSally. I thought she was likely to pull it off, but now I'm not so sure. It's still a tossup.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2018, 06:18:51 am »

What a surprise, good polling shows something different than the crappy online and R polling we have gotten for the past couple weeks.

Lets see what else Marist has in store.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2018, 06:23:40 am »

FINISH HER!
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Speaker OneJ
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2018, 06:27:29 am »

Let’s see how 2016 will unskew this poll.
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User157088589849
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2018, 06:39:29 am »

McSally was on fox news yesterday and she looks totally desperate.

https://video.foxnews.com/v/5854789724001/?#sp=show-clips
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2018, 06:57:34 am »


Like we've been saying, McSally is not acting like someone who is winning
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2016
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2018, 07:06:58 am »

Yes, I am going to unscew that Poll a bit

Party ID
Republicans 35
Independents 35
Democrats 28

R + 7 Electorate

Marist is NUTS. The current Party Breakdown of the Ballots that have been already returned are
Republicans 43.7
Democrats 33.1
Independents 22.7

So, Marist claims that over the next 5 Days (Early Voting) + Election Day the Independent Share of the Electorate will go from 22.7 to 35. That is absolutely INSANE and CRAZY.
They also say that in the same time Republicans drop from 43.7 to 35, an 8.7-Point Drop in 5 Days + Election Day...completely unreasonable.

Racial Breakdown
65 % White
4 % African-American
19 % Latino
13 % Other

No way it will be 65 % White, 35 % Non-White.

They also claim 15 % of Voters will be 18-29.

WHAT IS WRONG WITH THESE POLLSTERS?
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2018, 07:12:13 am »

Yes, I am going to unscew that Poll a bit

Party ID
Republicans 35
Independents 35
Democrats 28

R + 7 Electorate

Marist is NUTS. The current Party Breakdown of the Ballots that have been already returned are
Republicans 43.7
Democrats 33.1
Independents 22.7

So, Marist claims that over the next 5 Days (Early Voting) + Election Day the Independent Share of the Electorate will go from 22.7 to 35. That is absolutely INSANE and CRAZY.
They also say that in the same time Republicans drop from 43.7 to 35, an 8.7-Point Drop in 5 Days + Election Day...completely unreasonable.

Racial Breakdown
65 % White
4 % African-American
19 % Latino
13 % Other

No way it will be 65 % White, 35 % Non-White.

They also claim 15 % of Voters will be 18-29.

WHAT IS WRONG WITH THESE POLLSTERS?
Stop. Using. Early. Voting. As. The. Basis. Of. The. Election Day. Electorate.
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2018, 07:14:27 am »

Yes, I am going to unscew that Poll a bit

Party ID
Republicans 35
Independents 35
Democrats 28

R + 7 Electorate

Marist is NUTS. The current Party Breakdown of the Ballots that have been already returned are
Republicans 43.7
Democrats 33.1
Independents 22.7

So, Marist claims that over the next 5 Days (Early Voting) + Election Day the Independent Share of the Electorate will go from 22.7 to 35. That is absolutely INSANE and CRAZY.
They also say that in the same time Republicans drop from 43.7 to 35, an 8.7-Point Drop in 5 Days + Election Day...completely unreasonable.

Racial Breakdown
65 % White
4 % African-American
19 % Latino
13 % Other

No way it will be 65 % White, 35 % Non-White.

They also claim 15 % of Voters will be 18-29.

WHAT IS WRONG WITH THESE POLLSTERS?

1) Party ID and party registration are two different things mate. The ballots returned are party registration, the numbers you cite are party ID.
2) What makes a 65-35 white/non-white electorate odd? Arizona’s population is only 58% non-Hispanic white.
3) What makes 15% of voters being <30 strange? Despite its reputation, Arizona actually has a lower median age than the nation as a whole.
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2016
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2018, 07:29:24 am »

Yes, I am going to unscew that Poll a bit

Party ID
Republicans 35
Independents 35
Democrats 28

R + 7 Electorate

Marist is NUTS. The current Party Breakdown of the Ballots that have been already returned are
Republicans 43.7
Democrats 33.1
Independents 22.7

So, Marist claims that over the next 5 Days (Early Voting) + Election Day the Independent Share of the Electorate will go from 22.7 to 35. That is absolutely INSANE and CRAZY.
They also say that in the same time Republicans drop from 43.7 to 35, an 8.7-Point Drop in 5 Days + Election Day...completely unreasonable.

Racial Breakdown
65 % White
4 % African-American
19 % Latino
13 % Other

No way it will be 65 % White, 35 % Non-White.

They also claim 15 % of Voters will be 18-29.

WHAT IS WRONG WITH THESE POLLSTERS?
Stop. Using. Early. Voting. As. The. Basis. Of. The. Election Day. Electorate.

The Election Day Electorate will not have 35% of Indies I bet my House on that. Also the Election Day Electorate will not be R + 7. More likely it will be between R+9/R+10.

Latinos will not vote (19%)

Marist is using almost a 2016 Election Day Model

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/arizona/president

18-29 in the 2016 AZ Exit Poll was 14% now they claim MidTerm 18-29 is 15% (1-Point higher)
Racial Breakdown in 2016 AZ Exit Poll was
75% White
2 African American
15% Latino
2 % Asian
5 % Other
A 75-25 White/Non-White

The Party ID in the 2016 AZ Exit Poll

Democrats 28
Republicans 32
Independents 40

Bottom Line: Non of this makes sense at all.
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Lok
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2018, 07:31:26 am »

Omg, you do realise this is 2018, not 2012 right? Unskewing polls is one of the most ridiculous things ever.
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2016
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2018, 07:46:11 am »

Omg, you do realise this is 2018, not 2012 right? Unskewing polls is one of the most ridiculous things ever.

So, you really believe Latinos will vote at a higher Rate in the 2018 MidTerm (19%) than in the 2016 Presidential Election (15%) when Democrats argueably had the highest Turnout in an Election ever? This defies common sense.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2018, 07:48:40 am »
« Edited: October 30, 2018, 07:51:52 am by Senator-Elect Zaybay »

Omg, you do realise this is 2018, not 2012 right? Unskewing polls is one of the most ridiculous things ever.

So, you really believe Latinos will vote at a higher Rate in the 2018 MidTerm (19%) than in the 2016 Presidential Election (15%) when Democrats argueably had the highest Turnout in an Election ever? This defies common sense.
That is a complete falsehood. Democrats had rather low turnout in 2016, its literally the reason Clinton lost WI and had close margins in a handful of other states.

It should be noted that EV, polling, and other factors point to higher Hispanic turnout, but whatever fits your narrative.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2018, 08:03:00 am »
« Edited: October 30, 2018, 08:30:53 am by Vox Populi »

Reminder to all

We are getting down to the end - it's important you add 4 points to the Republican in each reputable poll because this is a stupid country. Call it a "stupid country bonus" for the GOP
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2018, 08:26:17 am »

Reminder to all

We are getting down to the end - it's important you add 4 points to the Republican in each reputatable poll because this is a stupid country. Call it a "stupid country bonus" for the GOP

Senator Moore and Governor Gillespie would like to have a word with you...
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2016
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« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2018, 08:26:29 am »

Omg, you do realise this is 2018, not 2012 right? Unskewing polls is one of the most ridiculous things ever.

So, you really believe Latinos will vote at a higher Rate in the 2018 MidTerm (19%) than in the 2016 Presidential Election (15%) when Democrats argueably had the highest Turnout in an Election ever? This defies common sense.
That is a complete falsehood. Democrats had rather low turnout in 2016, its literally the reason Clinton lost WI and had close margins in a handful of other states.

It should be noted that EV, polling, and other factors point to higher Hispanic turnout, but whatever fits your narrative.

LOL, How many Hispanics live in WI. Comparing the Hispanic Vote in WI to AZ is just BS.

Hispanics were at 11% Nationally 2016, in many Western States they were above that....

AZ: 15%
NM: 40%
CA: 31%
CO: 12%
TX: 24%

Hispanic Turnout will be higher in 2018 compared to previous MidTerms I will grant you that. However it will not be performing at Presidential Levels or above that and that's was very wrong here.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2018, 08:35:30 am »

Omg, you do realise this is 2018, not 2012 right? Unskewing polls is one of the most ridiculous things ever.

So, you really believe Latinos will vote at a higher Rate in the 2018 MidTerm (19%) than in the 2016 Presidential Election (15%) when Democrats argueably had the highest Turnout in an Election ever? This defies common sense.
That is a complete falsehood. Democrats had rather low turnout in 2016, its literally the reason Clinton lost WI and had close margins in a handful of other states.

It should be noted that EV, polling, and other factors point to higher Hispanic turnout, but whatever fits your narrative.

LOL, How many Hispanics live in WI. Comparing the Hispanic Vote in WI to AZ is just BS.

Hispanics were at 11% Nationally 2016, in many Western States they were above that....

AZ: 15%
NM: 40%
CA: 31%
CO: 12%
TX: 24%

Hispanic Turnout will be higher in 2018 compared to previous MidTerms I will grant you that. However it will not be performing at Presidential Levels or above that and that's was very wrong here.

When did I say Hispanic voters in WI? it seems to me that I said
Quote
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Anyway, as I said before, polling suggests that it will be above presidential numbers, or at least meeting it, same with the AA vote.
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Virginia C
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« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2018, 08:40:23 am »

Yes, I am going to unscew that Poll a bit

You don't need to tell us. You've literally been unskewing almost every poll that looks bad for Republicans.
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2018, 08:43:05 am »

Why do R hacks like 2016 have to be so boring?

At least some D hacks like Solid are entertaining because they at least might have a couple races they’re too pessimistic on (like UT-04/FL-27 with Solid). R hacks are just overly optimistic on every single race.
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2016
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« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2018, 08:43:22 am »

Omg, you do realise this is 2018, not 2012 right? Unskewing polls is one of the most ridiculous things ever.

So, you really believe Latinos will vote at a higher Rate in the 2018 MidTerm (19%) than in the 2016 Presidential Election (15%) when Democrats argueably had the highest Turnout in an Election ever? This defies common sense.
That is a complete falsehood. Democrats had rather low turnout in 2016, its literally the reason Clinton lost WI and had close margins in a handful of other states.

It should be noted that EV, polling, and other factors point to higher Hispanic turnout, but whatever fits your narrative.

LOL, How many Hispanics live in WI. Comparing the Hispanic Vote in WI to AZ is just BS.

Hispanics were at 11% Nationally 2016, in many Western States they were above that....

AZ: 15%
NM: 40%
CA: 31%
CO: 12%
TX: 24%

Hispanic Turnout will be higher in 2018 compared to previous MidTerms I will grant you that. However it will not be performing at Presidential Levels or above that and that's was very wrong here.

When did I say Hispanic voters in WI? it seems to me that I said
Quote
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Anyway, as I said before, polling suggests that it will be above presidential numbers, or at least meeting it, same with the AA vote.

Polling is Polling...it comes down who actually shows up.
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2016
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« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2018, 08:44:52 am »

Why do R hacks like 2016 have to be so boring?

At least some D hacks like Solid are entertaining because they at least might have a couple races they’re too pessimistic on (like UT-04/FL-27 with Solid). R hacks are just overly optimistic on every single race.

Actually I think FL27, FL26 are gone for Republicans.
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