AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates
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Author Topic: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates  (Read 7166 times)
DrScholl
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« Reply #25 on: October 30, 2018, 08:45:58 AM »

"The only poll that matters is when people turn their ballots in". That's what losing candidates say at the last minute.
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Webnicz
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« Reply #26 on: October 30, 2018, 08:48:33 AM »
« Edited: October 30, 2018, 09:09:03 AM by Webnicz »
Check this guy out. It’s interesting that republicans feel like they need to start using liberal talking points if they want to win in our state. Also if you know McSallys healthcare record try not to cringe.

https://youtu.be/egKdDw8ybgU

Anyone else notice how mcsally ditched her “I’m a tough fighter pilot and I talk like one” persona for the sweet girl persona. The “tough fearless fighter pilot” persona was always funny to me considering she literally abandoned her district because she was afraid she wouldn’t get re-elected.
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Person Man
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« Reply #27 on: October 30, 2018, 08:49:25 AM »
Jesus...
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Gass3268
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« Reply #28 on: October 30, 2018, 08:52:09 AM »
Quote from: Invisible Obama on October 30, 2018, 08:45:58 AM

"The only poll that matters is when people turn their ballots in". That's what losing candidates say at the last minute.

This is a real headline:

Rep. Martha McSally: 'I'm getting my ass kicked' on vote to repeal 'Obamacare'
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #29 on: October 30, 2018, 09:17:19 AM »
Quote from: Invisible Obama on October 30, 2018, 08:45:58 AM

"The only poll that matters is when people turn their ballots in". That's what losing candidates say at the last minute.
Then in that case, Gillum must be DOA because he repeatedly says "Polls don't vote; people do."
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Gass3268
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« Reply #30 on: October 30, 2018, 09:22:25 AM »
Quote from: libertpaulian on October 30, 2018, 09:17:19 AM
Quote from: Invisible Obama on October 30, 2018, 08:45:58 AM

"The only poll that matters is when people turn their ballots in". That's what losing candidates say at the last minute.
Then in that case, Gillum must be DOA because he repeatedly says "Polls don't vote; people do."


I think your tone is important, Gillum's sounds like he doesn't want his supporters to stay home compared to McSally who sounds scared.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #31 on: October 30, 2018, 10:12:44 AM »
Not surprised. McSally really stumbled on healthcare. She shouldn't have lied about her vote on preexisting conditions.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #32 on: October 30, 2018, 10:38:57 AM »
Quote from: 2016 on October 30, 2018, 07:29:24 AM
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on October 30, 2018, 07:12:13 AM
Quote from: 2016 on October 30, 2018, 07:06:58 AM
Yes, I am going to unscew that Poll a bit

Party ID
Republicans 35
Independents 35
Democrats 28

R + 7 Electorate





The Party ID in the 2016 AZ Exit Poll

Democrats 28
Republicans 32
Independents 40

Bottom Line: Non of this makes sense at all.

So you are saying this poll includes too many Republicans and not enough Independents?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #33 on: October 30, 2018, 10:45:10 AM »
I’ve never understood why people thought Republicans had a good shot at winning Senate races in Democratic-trending Clinton +2/Trump +3 states in a year much less favorable to them than 2016. Honestly, they’re more likely to win MT/IN/MO/ND/FL than to hold NV/AZ.
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2016
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #34 on: October 30, 2018, 10:54:48 AM »
Quote from: Fmr. Gov. NickG on October 30, 2018, 10:38:57 AM
Quote from: 2016 on October 30, 2018, 07:29:24 AM
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on October 30, 2018, 07:12:13 AM
Quote from: 2016 on October 30, 2018, 07:06:58 AM
Yes, I am going to unscew that Poll a bit

Party ID
Republicans 35
Independents 35
Democrats 28

R + 7 Electorate





The Party ID in the 2016 AZ Exit Poll

Democrats 28
Republicans 32
Independents 40

Bottom Line: Non of this makes sense at all.

So you are saying this poll includes too many Republicans and not enough Independents?

No, I am not saying that at all. What I am saying that they oversampled Independents? This is 2018 and not 2016.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #35 on: October 30, 2018, 10:59:15 AM »
Quote from: libertpaulian on October 30, 2018, 09:17:19 AM
Quote from: Invisible Obama on October 30, 2018, 08:45:58 AM

"The only poll that matters is when people turn their ballots in". That's what losing candidates say at the last minute.
Then in that case, Gillum must be DOA because he repeatedly says "Polls don't vote; people do."


That is more about not being complacent and is actually a wise thing to say.
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2016
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #36 on: October 30, 2018, 11:01:22 AM »


He's right. Marist shouldn't have asked the H2H Question

Meanwhile CBS/YouGov left the Green Party Candidate of their Questionaire entirely...
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #37 on: October 30, 2018, 11:09:20 AM »
Sorry to burst your bubble, 2016, but there is no way the Green Party candidate is getting more than 3% of the vote.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #38 on: October 30, 2018, 11:16:21 AM »
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on October 30, 2018, 11:09:20 AM
Sorry to burst your bubble, 2016, but there is no way the Green Party candidate is getting more than 3% of the vote.

That's not the Problem. The Problem is "PRINCIPLE" by Marist. There is no H2H in AZ between Sinema and McSally so they shouldn't be asking this Question.

Meanwhile...



Campaign Polling by both Parties suggesting AZ Senate Race is much, much tighter what Public Poling is saying.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #39 on: October 30, 2018, 11:18:32 AM »
Quote from: 2016 on October 30, 2018, 11:16:21 AM
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on October 30, 2018, 11:09:20 AM
Sorry to burst your bubble, 2016, but there is no way the Green Party candidate is getting more than 3% of the vote.

That's not the Problem. The Problem is "PRINCIPLE" by Marist. There is no H2H in AZ between Sinema and McSally so they shouldn't be asking this Question.

Meanwhile...



Campaign Polling by both Parties suggesting AZ Senate Race is much, much tighter what Public Poling is saying.

I like how you take Hotline Josh seriously.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #40 on: October 30, 2018, 11:20:38 AM »
Take everything Josh Kraushaar says with huge handfuls of salt.
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Xing
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« Reply #41 on: October 30, 2018, 11:39:42 AM »
An encouraging poll, but I'd still call this a Toss-Up.
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OneJ
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« Reply #42 on: October 30, 2018, 12:33:34 PM »
Wow, I guessed right! Tongue
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #43 on: October 30, 2018, 01:22:03 PM »
Mike Noble, Chief Pollster of "OH Predictive Insights" who will release their Final AZ Poll (Governor & Senate) tomorrow agrees with me on the NBC/Marist Poll...
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
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« Reply #44 on: October 30, 2018, 01:25:39 PM »
Can't believe I just waded into a puddle of dog sweat when I clicked on this thread.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #45 on: October 30, 2018, 01:27:57 PM »
Quote from: 2016 on October 30, 2018, 01:22:03 PM
Mike Noble, Chief Pollster of "OH Predictive Insights" who will release their Final AZ Poll (Governor & Senate) tomorrow agrees with me on the NBC/Marist Poll...



I’d take Marist (an A rated pollster) a lot more seriously than the junk known as OH Predictive Insights.
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adrac
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« Reply #46 on: October 30, 2018, 02:56:46 PM »
When polls list top lines with and without third-party candidates, I usually take the true top line to be somewhere between the two, as third party candidates almost always underperformed on election day.
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Webnicz
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« Reply #47 on: October 30, 2018, 03:00:08 PM »
Quote from: Fremont Speaker ON Progressive on October 30, 2018, 01:27:57 PM
Quote from: 2016 on October 30, 2018, 01:22:03 PM
Mike Noble, Chief Pollster of "OH Predictive Insights" who will release their Final AZ Poll (Governor & Senate) tomorrow agrees with me on the NBC/Marist Poll...



I’d take Marist (an A rated pollster) a lot more seriously than the junk known as OH Predictive Insights.

The OH poll will have McSally ahead for sure.
OH has done nothing to hide their bias, they are literally promoting McSally on their twitter page with the credible source of the Washington Freebeacon
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1056608283723583489?s=21
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KingSweden
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« Reply #48 on: October 30, 2018, 03:01:24 PM »
Quote from: Xing on October 30, 2018, 11:39:42 AM
An encouraging poll, but I'd still call this a Toss-Up.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #49 on: October 30, 2018, 03:33:46 PM »
OH Predictive Insight is so caught up on oversampling that it makes me wonder if they are weighting their polls by party ID which has in the past produced inaccurate results.
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