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Author Topic: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates  (Read 2167 times)
2016
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« on: October 30, 2018, 07:06:58 am »

Yes, I am going to unscew that Poll a bit

Party ID
Republicans 35
Independents 35
Democrats 28

R + 7 Electorate

Marist is NUTS. The current Party Breakdown of the Ballots that have been already returned are
Republicans 43.7
Democrats 33.1
Independents 22.7

So, Marist claims that over the next 5 Days (Early Voting) + Election Day the Independent Share of the Electorate will go from 22.7 to 35. That is absolutely INSANE and CRAZY.
They also say that in the same time Republicans drop from 43.7 to 35, an 8.7-Point Drop in 5 Days + Election Day...completely unreasonable.

Racial Breakdown
65 % White
4 % African-American
19 % Latino
13 % Other

No way it will be 65 % White, 35 % Non-White.

They also claim 15 % of Voters will be 18-29.

WHAT IS WRONG WITH THESE POLLSTERS?
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2016
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2018, 07:29:24 am »

Yes, I am going to unscew that Poll a bit

Party ID
Republicans 35
Independents 35
Democrats 28

R + 7 Electorate

Marist is NUTS. The current Party Breakdown of the Ballots that have been already returned are
Republicans 43.7
Democrats 33.1
Independents 22.7

So, Marist claims that over the next 5 Days (Early Voting) + Election Day the Independent Share of the Electorate will go from 22.7 to 35. That is absolutely INSANE and CRAZY.
They also say that in the same time Republicans drop from 43.7 to 35, an 8.7-Point Drop in 5 Days + Election Day...completely unreasonable.

Racial Breakdown
65 % White
4 % African-American
19 % Latino
13 % Other

No way it will be 65 % White, 35 % Non-White.

They also claim 15 % of Voters will be 18-29.

WHAT IS WRONG WITH THESE POLLSTERS?
Stop. Using. Early. Voting. As. The. Basis. Of. The. Election Day. Electorate.

The Election Day Electorate will not have 35% of Indies I bet my House on that. Also the Election Day Electorate will not be R + 7. More likely it will be between R+9/R+10.

Latinos will not vote (19%)

Marist is using almost a 2016 Election Day Model

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/arizona/president

18-29 in the 2016 AZ Exit Poll was 14% now they claim MidTerm 18-29 is 15% (1-Point higher)
Racial Breakdown in 2016 AZ Exit Poll was
75% White
2 African American
15% Latino
2 % Asian
5 % Other
A 75-25 White/Non-White

The Party ID in the 2016 AZ Exit Poll

Democrats 28
Republicans 32
Independents 40

Bottom Line: Non of this makes sense at all.
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2016
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2018, 07:46:11 am »

Omg, you do realise this is 2018, not 2012 right? Unskewing polls is one of the most ridiculous things ever.

So, you really believe Latinos will vote at a higher Rate in the 2018 MidTerm (19%) than in the 2016 Presidential Election (15%) when Democrats argueably had the highest Turnout in an Election ever? This defies common sense.
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2016
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2018, 08:26:29 am »

Omg, you do realise this is 2018, not 2012 right? Unskewing polls is one of the most ridiculous things ever.

So, you really believe Latinos will vote at a higher Rate in the 2018 MidTerm (19%) than in the 2016 Presidential Election (15%) when Democrats argueably had the highest Turnout in an Election ever? This defies common sense.
That is a complete falsehood. Democrats had rather low turnout in 2016, its literally the reason Clinton lost WI and had close margins in a handful of other states.

It should be noted that EV, polling, and other factors point to higher Hispanic turnout, but whatever fits your narrative.

LOL, How many Hispanics live in WI. Comparing the Hispanic Vote in WI to AZ is just BS.

Hispanics were at 11% Nationally 2016, in many Western States they were above that....

AZ: 15%
NM: 40%
CA: 31%
CO: 12%
TX: 24%

Hispanic Turnout will be higher in 2018 compared to previous MidTerms I will grant you that. However it will not be performing at Presidential Levels or above that and that's was very wrong here.
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2016
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2018, 08:43:22 am »

Omg, you do realise this is 2018, not 2012 right? Unskewing polls is one of the most ridiculous things ever.

So, you really believe Latinos will vote at a higher Rate in the 2018 MidTerm (19%) than in the 2016 Presidential Election (15%) when Democrats argueably had the highest Turnout in an Election ever? This defies common sense.
That is a complete falsehood. Democrats had rather low turnout in 2016, its literally the reason Clinton lost WI and had close margins in a handful of other states.

It should be noted that EV, polling, and other factors point to higher Hispanic turnout, but whatever fits your narrative.

LOL, How many Hispanics live in WI. Comparing the Hispanic Vote in WI to AZ is just BS.

Hispanics were at 11% Nationally 2016, in many Western States they were above that....

AZ: 15%
NM: 40%
CA: 31%
CO: 12%
TX: 24%

Hispanic Turnout will be higher in 2018 compared to previous MidTerms I will grant you that. However it will not be performing at Presidential Levels or above that and that's was very wrong here.

When did I say Hispanic voters in WI? it seems to me that I said
Quote
That is a complete falsehood. Democrats had rather low turnout in 2016, its literally the reason Clinton lost WI and had close margins in a handful of other states.

Anyway, as I said before, polling suggests that it will be above presidential numbers, or at least meeting it, same with the AA vote.

Polling is Polling...it comes down who actually shows up.
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2016
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2018, 08:44:52 am »

Why do R hacks like 2016 have to be so boring?

At least some D hacks like Solid are entertaining because they at least might have a couple races they’re too pessimistic on (like UT-04/FL-27 with Solid). R hacks are just overly optimistic on every single race.

Actually I think FL27, FL26 are gone for Republicans.
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2016
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2018, 10:54:48 am »

Yes, I am going to unscew that Poll a bit

Party ID
Republicans 35
Independents 35
Democrats 28

R + 7 Electorate





The Party ID in the 2016 AZ Exit Poll

Democrats 28
Republicans 32
Independents 40

Bottom Line: Non of this makes sense at all.

So you are saying this poll includes too many Republicans and not enough Independents?

No, I am not saying that at all. What I am saying that they oversampled Independents? This is 2018 and not 2016.
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2016
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2018, 11:01:22 am »



He's right. Marist shouldn't have asked the H2H Question

Meanwhile CBS/YouGov left the Green Party Candidate of their Questionaire entirely...

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2016
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2018, 11:16:21 am »

Sorry to burst your bubble, 2016, but there is no way the Green Party candidate is getting more than 3% of the vote.

That's not the Problem. The Problem is "PRINCIPLE" by Marist. There is no H2H in AZ between Sinema and McSally so they shouldn't be asking this Question.

Meanwhile...



Campaign Polling by both Parties suggesting AZ Senate Race is much, much tighter what Public Poling is saying.
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2016
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2018, 01:22:03 pm »

Mike Noble, Chief Pollster of "OH Predictive Insights" who will release their Final AZ Poll (Governor & Senate) tomorrow agrees with me on the NBC/Marist Poll...

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