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Author Topic: AZ NBC/Marist: Sinema +6 H2H, +3 with all candidates  (Read 2056 times)
Fremont Speaker ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

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« on: October 30, 2018, 07:14:27 am »

Yes, I am going to unscew that Poll a bit

Party ID
Republicans 35
Independents 35
Democrats 28

R + 7 Electorate

Marist is NUTS. The current Party Breakdown of the Ballots that have been already returned are
Republicans 43.7
Democrats 33.1
Independents 22.7

So, Marist claims that over the next 5 Days (Early Voting) + Election Day the Independent Share of the Electorate will go from 22.7 to 35. That is absolutely INSANE and CRAZY.
They also say that in the same time Republicans drop from 43.7 to 35, an 8.7-Point Drop in 5 Days + Election Day...completely unreasonable.

Racial Breakdown
65 % White
4 % African-American
19 % Latino
13 % Other

No way it will be 65 % White, 35 % Non-White.

They also claim 15 % of Voters will be 18-29.

WHAT IS WRONG WITH THESE POLLSTERS?

1) Party ID and party registration are two different things mate. The ballots returned are party registration, the numbers you cite are party ID.
2) What makes a 65-35 white/non-white electorate odd? Arizona’s population is only 58% non-Hispanic white.
3) What makes 15% of voters being <30 strange? Despite its reputation, Arizona actually has a lower median age than the nation as a whole.
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Fremont Speaker ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2018, 08:43:05 am »

Why do R hacks like 2016 have to be so boring?

At least some D hacks like Solid are entertaining because they at least might have a couple races they’re too pessimistic on (like UT-04/FL-27 with Solid). R hacks are just overly optimistic on every single race.
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Fremont Speaker ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2018, 11:18:32 am »

Sorry to burst your bubble, 2016, but there is no way the Green Party candidate is getting more than 3% of the vote.

That's not the Problem. The Problem is "PRINCIPLE" by Marist. There is no H2H in AZ between Sinema and McSally so they shouldn't be asking this Question.

Meanwhile...



Campaign Polling by both Parties suggesting AZ Senate Race is much, much tighter what Public Poling is saying.

I like how you take Hotline Josh seriously.
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Fremont Speaker ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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Posts: 4,293
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Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2018, 01:27:57 pm »

Mike Noble, Chief Pollster of "OH Predictive Insights" who will release their Final AZ Poll (Governor & Senate) tomorrow agrees with me on the NBC/Marist Poll...



I’d take Marist (an A rated pollster) a lot more seriously than the junk known as OH Predictive Insights.
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