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Author Topic: GA- OpinionSavvy: Abrams +1  (Read 1580 times)
Beto Bro
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« on: October 30, 2018, 11:22:21 am »

Abrams 48.1
Kemp 47.2
Metz 2.0

http://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/new-fox-5-poll-abrams-edging-kemp-in-dead-heat
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Beto Bro
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2018, 11:23:48 am »

I'll eat crow if I have to but I believe Abrams is going to eke this out. Y'all don't know how long she has had paid canvassers on the ground talking to people that the polls would never pick up. Not to mention the Democratic Party of Georgia's volunteer based field apparatus and the plethora of organizations down here organizing for her. We will see in 7 days.
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Lou Barletta's Teeth
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2018, 11:26:24 am »

Oh yes, that's the good sh*t!
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2018, 11:27:36 am »

Polls have been moving in Dems' favor in late October, so no surprise here.  I'm pretty sure she'll be able to pick up that last 2%.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2018, 11:29:45 am »

I'll eat crow if I have to but I believe Abrams is going to eke this out. Y'all don't know how long she has had paid canvassers on the ground talking to people that the polls would never pick up. Not to mention the Democratic Party of Georgia's volunteer based field apparatus and the plethora of organizations down here organizing for her. We will see in 7 days.

Is that apparatus good enough to keep running another month if it has to during a runoff?
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2018, 11:31:53 am »

I'll eat crow if I have to but I believe Abrams is going to eke this out. Y'all don't know how long she has had paid canvassers on the ground talking to people that the polls would never pick up. Not to mention the Democratic Party of Georgia's volunteer based field apparatus and the plethora of organizations down here organizing for her. We will see in 7 days.

Is that apparatus good enough to keep running another month if it has to during a runoff?

I would argue that Democrats might have the advantage in a runoff situation, given how insanely fired up the party is. It's not like 2008 where not only was GA more Republican-leaning, but Democrats basically climaxed with Obama and went to sleep afterwards. This time around, Trump is still in office, and a veritable avalanche of money and volunteers will descend on Georgia as if it is a final stand for the Democratic Party.
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Beto Bro
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2018, 11:32:11 am »

I'll eat crow if I have to but I believe Abrams is going to eke this out. Y'all don't know how long she has had paid canvassers on the ground talking to people that the polls would never pick up. Not to mention the Democratic Party of Georgia's volunteer based field apparatus and the plethora of organizations down here organizing for her. We will see in 7 days.

Is that apparatus good enough to keep running another month if it has to during a runoff?
Stacey Abrams and the state Democratic Party are prepared for all outcomes on November 6. Abrams is extremely intelligent and detailed oriented, I have faith in her system.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2018, 11:32:14 am »

Toss-up remains Toss-up.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2018, 11:36:38 am »

I'll eat crow if I have to but I believe Abrams is going to eke this out. Y'all don't know how long she has had paid canvassers on the ground talking to people that the polls would never pick up. Not to mention the Democratic Party of Georgia's volunteer based field apparatus and the plethora of organizations down here organizing for her. We will see in 7 days.

Is that apparatus good enough to keep running another month if it has to during a runoff?

I would argue that Democrats might have the advantage in a runoff situation, given how insanely fired up the party is. It's not like 2008 where not only was GA more Republican-leaning, but Democrats basically climaxed with Obama and went to sleep afterwards. This time around, Trump is still in office, and a veritable avalanche of money and volunteers will descend on Georgia as if it is a final stand for the Democratic Party.

Can you imagine how much money is going to get pumped into this race if it goes to a runoff?
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2018, 11:40:54 am »

Can you imagine how much money is going to get pumped into this race if it goes to a runoff?

Enough that by December 10th, voters will overrun Home Depot and Lowe's for power drills to put into their temples.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2018, 12:02:30 pm »

My veins are very happy right now. Anyway, still a Toss-Up. I'm getting some (*trigger warning*) GA-06 PTSD here, but hopefully this race turns out differently.
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2018, 12:12:06 pm »

I'll never understand why they continue doing three-way polls for Georgia when you need 50%+1 to win. Dems could be +30 with a good enough right wing third party but that wont matter in the slightest if they finish at 48-49%.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2018, 12:13:55 pm »

Excellent.

She's peaking just at the right time, just like Cordray in OH.

I hope she can avoid the runoff though, if the Indys break strongly in her favour. But it will be hard.
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2018, 01:08:03 pm »

Coles Point towards likely runoff same as always, but I'm going to reiterate a post I made a couple months ago wondering whether or not that's actually more of Abrams plan A rather than seriously expecting to hit 50% + 1 on Election Day? She is put every ounce of her energy into turning out low propensity voters who don't show up much at general election time. Yes Democratic turnout falls off for the runoff election, but so does Republican turn off, just not as much.

 I've seriously wondered if her primary game plan hasn't been to Simply flip the tables on what is going to be low turnout runoff where the name of the game is turn out turn out turn out turn out.
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2018, 02:25:56 pm »

I don't like the decimals, but this seems like where the race is at, that last 1.9/2% is what matters.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2018, 02:57:07 pm »

I'll never understand why they continue doing three-way polls for Georgia when you need 50%+1 to win. Dems could be +30 with a good enough right wing third party but that wont matter in the slightest if they finish at 48-49%.

If you don't do a three-way poll, how do you know if the third-party candidate is keeping the others under 50?
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Hammy
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2018, 04:01:25 pm »

I'll never understand why they continue doing three-way polls for Georgia when you need 50%+1 to win. Dems could be +30 with a good enough right wing third party but that wont matter in the slightest if they finish at 48-49%.

If you don't do a three-way poll, how do you know if the third-party candidate is keeping the others under 50?

Would it matter, considering we are a runoff state? At the very least they should include the runoff in these polls since there's no way anything other than a D vs R runoff is happening for the foreseeable future.
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Prolocutor Bagel23
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2018, 04:55:57 pm »

Lean R.
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« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2018, 05:01:01 pm »

Lean R.

Agreed. At this point, I'm thinking that Georgia will go to a runoff, and that Abrams will lose that runoff. She is outperforming Hillary Clinton, which is not surprising, but is struggling to get that last 1-2% that she needs for an absolute majority. Georgia may not be ready for a Democratic Governor at this time, at least not for a few more years.
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DukeLimeral
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« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2018, 06:36:04 pm »

Lean R.

Agreed. At this point, I'm thinking that Georgia will go to a runoff, and that Abrams will lose that runoff. She is outperforming Hillary Clinton, which is not surprising, but is struggling to get that last 1-2% that she needs for an absolute majority. Georgia may not be ready for a Democratic Governor at this time, at least not for a few more years.

Men of no character like Secretary Kemp will ensure it eternally remains 'just not quite there yet.'
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Beto Bro
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« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2018, 06:57:27 pm »

Lean R.

Agreed. At this point, I'm thinking that Georgia will go to a runoff, and that Abrams will lose that runoff. She is outperforming Hillary Clinton, which is not surprising, but is struggling to get that last 1-2% that she needs for an absolute majority. Georgia may not be ready for a Democratic Governor at this time, at least not for a few more years.
Georgia is ready for a Democratic Governor. People in your party keep purging the voters who are ready off the rolls. Or cut early voting hours. Or close their polling locations. Or deem their ID’s not acceptable.
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« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2018, 06:59:06 pm »

Lean R.

Agreed. At this point, I'm thinking that Georgia will go to a runoff, and that Abrams will lose that runoff. She is outperforming Hillary Clinton, which is not surprising, but is struggling to get that last 1-2% that she needs for an absolute majority. Georgia may not be ready for a Democratic Governor at this time, at least not for a few more years.
Georgia is ready for a Democratic Governor. People in your party keep purging the voters who are ready off the rolls. Or cut early voting hours. Or close their polling locations. Or seem their IDís not acceptable.

In my party? I was just making an observation about this race, and it's not an unreasonable one. The polls have remained relatively inflexible throughout the year, and a runoff election would be more difficult for Abrams to win, given turnout differentials. I understand that you are a partisan Democratic activist, and that you strongly support Abrams, but you let your partisanship get in over your head.
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Beto Bro
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« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2018, 07:05:16 pm »

Lean R.

Agreed. At this point, I'm thinking that Georgia will go to a runoff, and that Abrams will lose that runoff. She is outperforming Hillary Clinton, which is not surprising, but is struggling to get that last 1-2% that she needs for an absolute majority. Georgia may not be ready for a Democratic Governor at this time, at least not for a few more years.
Georgia is ready for a Democratic Governor. People in your party keep purging the voters who are ready off the rolls. Or cut early voting hours. Or close their polling locations. Or seem their IDís not acceptable.

In my party? I was just making an observation about this race, and it's not an unreasonable one. The polls have remained relatively inflexible throughout the year, and a runoff election would be more difficult for Abrams to win, given turnout differentials. I understand that you are a partisan Democratic activist, and that you strongly support Abrams, but you let your partisanship get in over your head.
Republicans purge voters who are not friendly to their party. That has nothing to do with my partisanship. It is a well documented fact. Leave your head in the sand if you want to.
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Liz or Leave
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« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2018, 07:05:52 pm »

I'll eat crow if I have to but I believe Abrams is going to eke this out. Y'all don't know how long she has had paid canvassers on the ground talking to people that the polls would never pick up. Not to mention the Democratic Party of Georgia's volunteer based field apparatus and the plethora of organizations down here organizing for her. We will see in 7 days.

Is that apparatus good enough to keep running another month if it has to during a runoff?

I would argue that Democrats might have the advantage in a runoff situation, given how insanely fired up the party is. It's not like 2008 where not only was GA more Republican-leaning, but Democrats basically climaxed with Obama and went to sleep afterwards. This time around, Trump is still in office, and a veritable avalanche of money and volunteers will descend on Georgia as if it is a final stand for the Democratic Party.

Hard disagree. The same thing was true with the GA-06 special -- Trump was in office, he was swimming in cash, and the base was incredibly energized.

I think Abrams is toast if she doesn't get to 50. If she doesn't, we'll see the same thing we've seen in all of the high-profile specials of the last 18 months (sans Alabama): intense national focus on the race plus the realization that it's a close race and not a shoe-in Republican win will force enough of the reluctant Republican voters to turn out to counteract the Democratic energy and keep the seat red.
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Beto Bro
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« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2018, 07:19:39 pm »

I'll eat crow if I have to but I believe Abrams is going to eke this out. Y'all don't know how long she has had paid canvassers on the ground talking to people that the polls would never pick up. Not to mention the Democratic Party of Georgia's volunteer based field apparatus and the plethora of organizations down here organizing for her. We will see in 7 days.

Is that apparatus good enough to keep running another month if it has to during a runoff?

I would argue that Democrats might have the advantage in a runoff situation, given how insanely fired up the party is. It's not like 2008 where not only was GA more Republican-leaning, but Democrats basically climaxed with Obama and went to sleep afterwards. This time around, Trump is still in office, and a veritable avalanche of money and volunteers will descend on Georgia as if it is a final stand for the Democratic Party.

Hard disagree. The same thing was true with the GA-06 special -- Trump was in office, he was swimming in cash, and the base was incredibly energized.

I think Abrams is toast if she doesn't get to 50. If she doesn't, we'll see the same thing we've seen in all of the high-profile specials of the last 18 months (sans Alabama): intense national focus on the race plus the realization that it's a close race and not a shoe-in Republican win will force enough of the reluctant Republican voters to turn out to counteract the Democratic energy and keep the seat red.
GA-6 is a gerrymandered Republican District. That is not comparable to a statewide race.
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