GA- OpinionSavvy: Abrams +1

[Adam Griffin]

I'll eat crow if I have to but I believe Abrams is going to eke this out. Y'all don't know how long she has had paid canvassers on the ground talking to people that the polls would never pick up. Not to mention the Democratic Party of Georgia's volunteer based field apparatus and the plethora of organizations down here organizing for her. We will see in 7 days.

Is that apparatus good enough to keep running another month if it has to during a runoff?

I would argue that Democrats might have the advantage in a runoff situation, given how insanely fired up the party is. It's not like 2008 where not only was GA more Republican-leaning, but Democrats basically climaxed with Obama and went to sleep afterwards. This time around, Trump is still in office, and a veritable avalanche of money and volunteers will descend on Georgia as if it is a final stand for the Democratic Party.

Hard disagree. The same thing was true with the GA-06 special -- Trump was in office, he was swimming in cash, and the base was incredibly energized.

I think Abrams is toast if she doesn't get to 50. If she doesn't, we'll see the same thing we've seen in all of the high-profile specials of the last 18 months (sans Alabama): intense national focus on the race plus the realization that it's a close race and not a shoe-in Republican win will force enough of the reluctant Republican voters to turn out to counteract the Democratic energy and keep the seat red.

GA-6 is a gerrymandered Republican District. That is not comparable to a statewide race.

I mean...it's not so different. Obviously the state isn't redrawn every 10 years, but with voter purges, strict barriers to voting, etc, the end result is comparable in that the GOP is constantly maximizing its influence here at the expense of others.

[Adam Griffin]

I will say this, though: the polling at least (what little we've had in the past week or two) isn't following the usual trajectory. It's almost as if the suburbrons aren't flocking to Kemp last-minute like they always otherwise do...

Kemp hasn't exceeded 48% in a poll. Abrams has been at 48% in the past 2 polls (by the same pollster, which frankly isn't the best pollster, but alas). This is probably about as good as one can ask for in Georgia in polling: it's going to come down to whether these low-propensity voters show up.

[Adam Griffin]

Moreover, I would say that RFKFan68's statements are further proof of the poisonous effects of political polarization in this country. Aiming for the destruction of an opposing political party is, in my belief, beyond the bounds of reason. And engaging in such blatant partisanship makes its more difficult for you to attract independents and swing voters to your side. Abrams will need those voters to win, and having advocates making such hardline comments makes it more difficult to get those individuals into your camp.

Unfortunately, the vast majority of Georgia "independents" are the types who love to talk about civility and blame both sides for everything, yet when it matters, ultimately don the R avatar en masse. That sounds very familiar...

The people in this state who are up for grabs identify as "moderates", and historically are perfectly willing to back Democrats under most circumstances.