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Author Topic: MO- Quality Pollster.......Just Kidding, its Cygnal: Hawley +3  (Read 1404 times)
Senator Zaybay
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« on: October 30, 2018, 12:56:22 pm »

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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2018, 12:57:11 pm »

Not looking good, but I'm not ruling out McCaskill yet. Either way, she's clearly not getting Blanched.
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2018, 12:57:23 pm »

If Cygnal only has him up by 3, I don't think McCaskill is as doomed as most of Atlas seems to think.
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2018, 12:58:16 pm »

Im not trusting a pollster that cant even spell the word signal right
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Notorious Right-Winger Beto O'Rourke (NRBO)
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2018, 12:58:26 pm »

Do we actually know if Cygnal is a real pollster? They seem to be a new pollster... It seems very strange, their website domain is .al

.al is Albania.

Huh If we don't know that they are real, could they be a Russian fake poll?

I have no specific evidence of this, but it just seems very strange that they would have a .al domain for their website.
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2018, 12:58:44 pm »

Inb4 2016, SN2903 and SirWoodbury use this to prove this race is Safe R.
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2018, 01:00:30 pm »

LOL @ all those Republican pollsters coming out of the woodworks now, just like all the right-wing Nazi rednecks are coming out of woodworks to mail pipe bombs and kill Jews.
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2018, 01:02:15 pm »

If Cygnal only has him up by 3, I don't think McCaskill is as doomed as most of Atlas seems to think.

This. Frankly, this is as good a news for mccaskill in polling that has come out in a couple weeks
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2018, 01:03:52 pm »

LOL @ all those Republican pollsters coming out of the woodworks now, just like all the right-wing Nazi rednecks are coming out of woodworks to mail pipe bombs and kill Jews.

What evidence is there that they are actually a real pollster in the first place? They do not even seem to have a 538 pollster grade rating and seem to be new, with an Albanian website.
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2018, 01:04:28 pm »

LOL, 538 adjusted this poll by 4.6 points in Dems' favor and it actually increased McCaskill's odds in the "lite" forecast.
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2018, 01:09:07 pm »

Tilt R, but I'd like a reputable pollster to report on this race.
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2018, 01:12:09 pm »

Polls that show results which I like or confirm my gut feelings are accurate, polls which don't are fake news.

That's how most people are going to feel about polls from here on out. What a lot of people don't realize that is that sometimes when polls are wrong, your gut feelings are even more wrong.
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2018, 01:12:26 pm »

LOL, 538 adjusted this poll by 4.6 points in Dems' favor and it actually increased McCaskill's odds in the "lite" forecast.

Makes sense considering this is the pollster that says VA is only Kaine+5.

What makes you so sure that they actually conducted a poll at all?
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2018, 01:15:02 pm »

LOL @ all those Republican pollsters coming out of the woodworks now, just like all the right-wing Nazi rednecks are coming out of woodworks to mail pipe bombs and kill Jews.

What evidence is there that they are actually a real pollster in the first place? They do not even seem to have a 538 pollster grade rating and seem to be new, with an Albanian website.

Wait an Albanian website...?
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2018, 01:15:17 pm »

Polls that show results which I like or confirm my gut feelings are accurate, polls which don't are fake news.

That's how most people are going to feel about polls from here on out. What a lot of people don't realize that is that sometimes when polls are wrong, your gut feelings are even more wrong.

Have you ever heard of a pollster with an Albanian web domain? Does that not seem bizarre?

I entirely grant that for example Remington polls showing Hawley up are legit (and that McCaskill could very easily lose, and Hawley may well be favored). But this pollster seems weird.
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2018, 01:16:23 pm »

LOL @ all those Republican pollsters coming out of the woodworks now, just like all the right-wing Nazi rednecks are coming out of woodworks to mail pipe bombs and kill Jews.

What evidence is there that they are actually a real pollster in the first place? They do not even seem to have a 538 pollster grade rating and seem to be new, with an Albanian website.

Wait an Albanian website...?

http://www.cygn.al

.al is Albania

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/.al

Quote
.al is the Internet country code top-level domain (ccTLD) for Albania. It is administered by the Electronic and Postal Communications Authority of Albania (AKEP). Anyone may register a .al domain, provided the site does not promote nor engage in the violation of human rights, harm children, or violate the laws and Constitution of Albania.[1]
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2018, 01:22:50 pm »

LOL, 538 adjusted this poll by 4.6 points in Dems' favor and it actually increased McCaskill's odds in the "lite" forecast.

Makes sense considering this is the pollster that says VA is only Kaine+5.

What makes you so sure that they actually conducted a poll at all?

538 usually verifies a pollster is real before adding them. They were one of the first to raise red flags about Overtime Politics, for example.
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2018, 01:25:24 pm »

LOL @ all those Republican pollsters coming out of the woodworks now, just like all the right-wing Nazi rednecks are coming out of woodworks to mail pipe bombs and kill Jews.

What evidence is there that they are actually a real pollster in the first place? They do not even seem to have a 538 pollster grade rating and seem to be new, with an Albanian website.

Wait an Albanian website...?

http://www.cygn.al

.al is Albania

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/.al

Quote
.al is the Internet country code top-level domain (ccTLD) for Albania. It is administered by the Electronic and Postal Communications Authority of Albania (AKEP). Anyone may register a .al domain, provided the site does not promote nor engage in the violation of human rights, harm children, or violate the laws and Constitution of Albania.[1]

That just seems like the typical domain hack. Doesnít mean itís fake, although if theyíre seriously publishing Kaine +5 then itís probably junk.
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« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2018, 01:27:44 pm »

538 usually verifies a pollster is real before adding them. They were one of the first to raise red flags about Overtime Politics, for example.

I know, but in the case of Overtime Politics it was extremely obvious. In other cases, like Strategic Vision and Research 2000, the "pollsters" stuck around for a long time before it was figured out that they were actually fake.

They could well be legit, and it is certainly not implausible for Rs to be up a bit in MO or IN, but I am just really weirded out by the Albanian website. Supposing that you were Russia and wanted to interfere with the midterms (which we know is the case) and promote a pro-GOP narrative, creating a fake pollster that starts releasing 'polls' a week or so before the election is one way that you might try to do that. And if so... Albanian website... well...
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« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2018, 01:33:43 pm »

Have you ever heard of a pollster with an Albanian web domain? Does that not seem bizarre?

I entirely grant that for example Remington polls showing Hawley up are legit (and that McCaskill could very easily lose, and Hawley may well be favored). But this pollster seems weird.

Oh fair enough, I definitely agree with you that putting too much (if any) stock in a Cygnal poll is certainly not a good idea. I was talking more about people reflexively dismissing other data points such as the Remington (MO)/YouGov (IN) polls as junk/Republican internals or "unskewing" polls they donít like (see the AZ thread, for example). Iíd still rate both IN and MO Toss-ups, but the idea that theyíre less likely to flip than TX and TN is ludicrous.
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« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2018, 01:44:10 pm »

Well,
McCaskill called Warren, Booker, Sanders "Crazy Democrats" yesterday on FOX NEWS. I bet that this won't sit well with her base in St. Louis & Suburbs.
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« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2018, 01:56:36 pm »

Cygnal blyat
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« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2018, 01:58:16 pm »

Well,
McCaskill called Warren, Booker, Sanders "Crazy Democrats" yesterday on FOX NEWS. I bet that this won't sit well with her base in St. Louis & Suburbs.

I don't think her base are the types to watch Fox News.
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« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2018, 02:09:09 pm »

McCaskill will win in the end
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« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2018, 02:14:20 pm »

The .al means nothing, guys.


Plenty of sites use .tv without having any link to Tuvalu.
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