TN- NBC/Marist: Blackburn +5

[Strong Candidate]

https://twitter.com/CarrieNBCNews/status/1057376672230621184

[KingSweden]

Looks eminently reasonable and is probably close to the final margin

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I'll take it, could easily be worse.

[2016]

Blackburn 51
Bredesen 46

[Politician]

Lean R, but a Bredesen win would hardly be surprising.

[2016]

Lean R, but a Bredesen win would hardly be surprising.

Likely R the way Marist has been conducting Polls of late.

[Calthrina950]

Looks eminently reasonable and is probably close to the final margin

I agree with this. Tennessee will be a definite Republican hold, just like in 2006. That's one way in which the two years will resemble each other.

[Badger]

Looks eminently reasonable and is probably close to the final margin

Yep. Looks like Phil pulled off his number two Priority at least of making the Republicans spend serious dough here that they could have otherwise put towards Indiana and Missouri.

[Zaybay]

Looks like a lean R to me

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ugh whatever. Can't wait for a couple of decades of that lunatic in the Senate.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Looks eminently reasonable and is probably close to the final margin

[Badger]

Ugh whatever. Can't wait for a couple of decades of that lunatic in the Senate.

Sadly, will her voting record really different more than a couple percentage points at most from so-called "Reasonable Serious Moderates" Alexander and Corker?

[2016]

Ugh whatever. Can't wait for a couple of decades of that lunatic in the Senate.

Why are you calling Politicians Lunatics? Maybe you're himself one if you call people like that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks eminently reasonable and is probably close to the final margin

[Calthrina950]

Ugh whatever. Can't wait for a couple of decades of that lunatic in the Senate.

Why are you calling Politicians Lunatics? Maybe you're himself one if you call people like that.

Blackburn is a staunchly conservative Republican, of the type that he despises. She would be the first Republican Senator from Tennessee, in living memory, to not fit the "establishment conservative to moderate mold", that the state usually prefers for its Senators (as evidenced by Corker, Alexander, Frist, Thompson, and Baker).

[libertpaulian]

If Corker had any sense, he'd endorse Bredesen.  I mean, he's leaving in January.  What does he have to lose?!

[MT Treasurer]

Nice!

[Calthrina950]

If Corker had any sense, he'd endorse Bredesen.  I mean, he's leaving in January.  What does he have to lose?!

It wouldn't make any difference at this point. Blackburn, it seems, was always destined to win. The historical pattern of repeat candidates failing with their comebacks seems to be repeating itself, as it did with Feingold, Bayh, and Strickland back in 2016.

[2016]

If Corker had any sense, he'd endorse Bredesen.  I mean, he's leaving in January.  What does he have to lose?!

It wouldn't make any difference at this point. Blackburn, it seems, was always destined to win. The historical pattern of repeat candidates failing with their comebacks seems to be repeating itself, as it did with Feingold, Bayh, and Strickland back in 2016.

Well, I think Hickenlooper will almost certainly try for Senate against Gardner in two years unless he runs for POTUS so another one coming.

[Virginiá]

If Corker had any sense, he'd endorse Bredesen.  I mean, he's leaving in January.  What does he have to lose?!

It wouldn't make any difference at this point. Blackburn, it seems, was always destined to win. The historical pattern of repeat candidates failing with their comebacks seems to be repeating itself, as it did with Feingold, Bayh, and Strickland back in 2016.

Bayh and Strickland suck as examples in this, especially Bayh, who was a deeply flawed candidate due to his post-politics work (if you saw the 2016 coverage of his candidacy, you should know). Both those states were definitely, and continue to be, winnable for Democrats, but if Bredie loses, it will not be because he turned into a terrible person/candidate after leaving office but rather because Tennessee has simply become too Republican-leaning to win, even in a very favorable cycle.

[Calthrina950]

If Corker had any sense, he'd endorse Bredesen.  I mean, he's leaving in January.  What does he have to lose?!

It wouldn't make any difference at this point. Blackburn, it seems, was always destined to win. The historical pattern of repeat candidates failing with their comebacks seems to be repeating itself, as it did with Feingold, Bayh, and Strickland back in 2016.

Well, I think Hickenlooper will almost certainly try for Senate against Gardner in two years unless he runs for POTUS so another one coming.

Hickenlooper, I believe, would be an exception to the rule. He has pretty decent approval ratings, is inoffensive, and is a centrist. Moreover, Gardner is very unpopular, with some of the lowest approval ratings of any Senator in the country. Given these facts, and given that Trump will almost certainly lose Colorado in 2020, Hickenlooper would be favored. But I would much rather that the Democrats nominate someone younger to run for the seat.

But otherwise, my point stands. IceSpear was right when he insisted, from the very beginning, that Bredesen was doomed. And this race demonstrates to me how this year will not be a "blue wave" by any means. If anything, I expect Democrats to do about as well as they did in 2006.

[Calthrina950]

If Corker had any sense, he'd endorse Bredesen.  I mean, he's leaving in January.  What does he have to lose?!

It wouldn't make any difference at this point. Blackburn, it seems, was always destined to win. The historical pattern of repeat candidates failing with their comebacks seems to be repeating itself, as it did with Feingold, Bayh, and Strickland back in 2016.

Bayh and Strickland suck as examples in this, especially Bayh, who was a deeply flawed candidate due to his post-politics work (if you saw the 2016 coverage of his candidacy, you should know). Both those states were definitely, and continue to be, winnable for Democrats, but if Bredie loses, it will not be because he turned into a terrible person/candidate after leaving office but rather because Tennessee has simply become too Republican-leaning to win, even in a very favorable cycle.

They were weak candidates, but the same rule has shown itself to be true with many other candidates. Scott Brown (New Hampshire 2014), Linda Lingle (Hawaii 2012), and Tommy Thompson (Wisconsin 2012), are some other notable examples.

[junior chįmp]

Poll was taken before Taylor Swift's Instagram pic

Take with a grain of Salt

[Xing]

Senator Bredesen is probably not going to happen, but the NYT poll did seem a bit exaggerated.

[Skye]

Bredesen is still performing better than expected. But it still leans R.