ND: Trafalgar- Cramer +9
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  ND: Trafalgar- Cramer +9
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Author Topic: ND: Trafalgar- Cramer +9  (Read 4002 times)
Virginiá
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« Reply #25 on: October 30, 2018, 04:19:17 PM »

What races has Trafalgar gotten right (more or less)? I don't want to try to run down everything, but AL and VA 2017, they were off the mark rather significantly:

Moore+5
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/senate/al/alabama_senate_special_election_moore_vs_jones-6271.html

Northam+1
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html

They did do well in Michigan 2016 -- Trump+2
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html
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Badger
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« Reply #26 on: October 30, 2018, 04:21:46 PM »

Another poll confirming what has already been known about this race. Heitkamp is on track to lose by high single to low double digits, as I previously estimated.

So tell us how you estimated that 70% of the electric will self identify as Republicans, and less than 2% will be under age 35. Inquiring minds want to know!
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Pollster
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« Reply #27 on: October 30, 2018, 04:22:41 PM »


Interesting that these were both off by more or less the same margin. If you apply that baseline to this poll, it's a dead heat.
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new_patomic
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« Reply #28 on: October 30, 2018, 04:44:53 PM »

They have Trump's approval at 56-44.

Honestly feels sort of low to me?

Weird sample.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #29 on: October 30, 2018, 05:04:02 PM »

The Heitkamp can still win people are even more pathetic than the Bernie can still win people, I really don't know what makes it so hard for people to accept her losing at this point
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UWS
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« Reply #30 on: October 30, 2018, 05:18:52 PM »

In case you guys have forgot, Trump overwhelmingly won North Dakota by 35 percentage points in 2016 and has over 60 % approval rating there. So I’m astonished that you can’t realize how much conservative ND is and thus Cramer could win by this much.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #31 on: October 30, 2018, 05:56:10 PM »

I'm almost psychic.

FOX: Cramer +9

Atlas: "Told you guys Heidi was still in this. She's surging. At this rate she'll be ahead by January. Toss up/tilt D imo tbh imho"
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IceSpear
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« Reply #32 on: October 30, 2018, 06:21:23 PM »


Really?

The Heitkamp can still win people are even more pathetic than the Bernie can still win people, I really don't know what makes it so hard for people to accept her losing at this point

Yeah, it's pretty sad to watch. Especially when a lot of the same people will make fun of other posters for saying John James, Bob Hugin, etc. can win.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #33 on: October 30, 2018, 06:31:03 PM »


Really?

The Heitkamp can still win people are even more pathetic than the Bernie can still win people, I really don't know what makes it so hard for people to accept her losing at this point

Yeah, it's pretty sad to watch. Especially when a lot of the same people will make fun of other posters for saying John James, Bob Hugin, etc. can win.
Ice, we're applying the standards of this particular poll, not necessarily saying "Here's how Heidi can still win!!"
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #34 on: October 30, 2018, 07:55:55 PM »

Yep. Looks about right. This year looks ripe for red states to correct their elections of accidental Senators from six years ago.
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SN2903
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« Reply #35 on: October 30, 2018, 08:24:22 PM »

Heitkamp will lose by 15 ish
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #36 on: October 30, 2018, 08:36:07 PM »


Nope
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #37 on: October 30, 2018, 08:56:41 PM »


They just emailed me and Heidi says the gap is closing, she can win this race, but any number of the red state Dems can lose.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #38 on: October 30, 2018, 09:12:52 PM »


Probably not 15, but a low double-digit Cramer win is not beyond the realm of possibility.
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Badger
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« Reply #39 on: October 31, 2018, 02:30:44 AM »


Really?

The Heitkamp can still win people are even more pathetic than the Bernie can still win people, I really don't know what makes it so hard for people to accept her losing at this point

Yeah, it's pretty sad to watch. Especially when a lot of the same people will make fun of other posters for saying John James, Bob Hugin, etc. can win.
Ice, we're applying the standards of this particular poll, not necessarily saying "Here's how Heidi can still win!!"

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CookieDamage
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« Reply #40 on: October 31, 2018, 02:34:27 AM »

I'm almost psychic.

FOX: Cramer +9

Atlas: "Told you guys Heidi was still in this. She's surging. At this rate she'll be ahead by January. Toss up/tilt D imo tbh imho"

Ugh... your mind... stan list Purple heart
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #41 on: October 31, 2018, 02:40:33 AM »

I think this actually caused the 538 model to tighten to Lean R, might be wrong though....
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #42 on: October 31, 2018, 01:43:19 PM »

The Gold standard has spoken
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #43 on: October 31, 2018, 01:47:36 PM »

They have Trump's approval at 56-44.

Honestly feels sort of low to me?

Weird sample.

Yeah. People will point to the 70% Republican number in this poll and try to unscew it. That is not a smart thing to do as Trafalgar is just garbage all around. This is another reason why 538's model is flawed. Not every poll from the same company is going to be off by the same margin.
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