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December 13, 2019, 09:10:28 am
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  MT: MTN-MSU: Tester +3
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Author Topic: MT: MTN-MSU: Tester +3  (Read 2325 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #25 on: October 22, 2018, 10:21:46 pm »

I like the idea of seeing more mail polls. Let's see if it works.
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Trump Is Smarter Than You
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« Reply #26 on: October 22, 2018, 11:25:54 pm »

That fat fingerless f*** needs to go down. #SendTrumpReinforcements

I have this taint-waffle on ignore, so I canít report him, but this kind of BS warrants an infraction.

lmao

anyway, @bagel

I just wanted some alliterative appeal. What's wrong with that?
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Mangez des pommes !
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« Reply #27 on: October 23, 2018, 12:04:15 am »

They also had Bullock ahead by 12 in October 2016, and he won by 4 on election day. This does look believable though, and Tester +3 is basically my current prediction as well. Lol@ the idea that this race is Likely/Safe D or less likely to go R than NV/WI/ME/etc. because of Candidate Qualityô, though.

Does this pollster typically overrate Democrats in general, or is it just all over the place?
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Vosem
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« Reply #28 on: October 23, 2018, 12:11:11 am »

They also had Bullock ahead by 12 in October 2016, and he won by 4 on election day. This does look believable though, and Tester +3 is basically my current prediction as well. Lol@ the idea that this race is Likely/Safe D or less likely to go R than NV/WI/ME/etc. because of Candidate Qualityô, though.

Does this pollster typically overrate Democrats in general, or is it just all over the place?

Their final 2012 poll has Romney+14, Hill+2, Rehberg+3 (compared with actual results of Romney+13, Bullock+2, Tester+4), so I think it's just not a great poll rather than being skewed in Democrats' favor a lot.

Also, my perception is that Montana is a late-breaking state broke late Republican in 2016 and late Democratic for state races in 2012, given the general high levels of fluctuation the state sees and the general fact that polling averages included some pretty prestigious pollsters in both years and were still off consistently.
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Hydera
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« Reply #29 on: October 23, 2018, 12:27:42 am »

That fat fingerless f*** needs to go down. #SendTrumpReinforcements

I'm sorry, but this is absolutely disgusting. We can argue over policy, and heck, it's even mostly within bounds to insult his looks, but it's really messed up and beyond the pale to bring his tragic injury in to this. I hate my governor Greg Abbott, but I would never insult him in that fashion and make fun of his disabilities.

Says the guy who is in favor of running a racist Dixiecrat campaign against Tim Scott and who was disappointed when he found out that Rosendale didnít have a speech impediment because it would hurt him in the debates, lmao

So we finally have that MTN-MSU Poll out you talked about in another Thread. This is a Toss Up Race for me. Along with Missouri, Indiana and North Dakota the best Pick Up Opportunities for the GOP.

I can see Tester losing along with Heitkamp and McCaskill....

This Graphic though seems odd to me

Tester ahead with older Voters especially those 65+ is a little bit suspicious.


Tester won voters who were 65+ in 2012 by 1%. The sons and daughters of that group are more conservative.  Consider that a lot of those 65+ voters were probably associated with labor unions in the past.

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The Invisible Hand (that suicided Jeffrey Epstein)
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« Reply #30 on: October 23, 2018, 01:13:32 am »

That fat fingerless f*** needs to go down. #SendTrumpReinforcements

I have this taint-waffle on ignore, so I canít report him, but this kind of BS warrants an infraction.

lmao

anyway, @bagel

I just wanted some alliterative appeal. What's wrong with that?
I blame the Ambien. I swear. One night I took Ambien and was wearing Hugo Boss in the morning for work...Not Good!
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DavidB.
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« Reply #31 on: October 23, 2018, 02:18:43 am »

I believed that this one was kind of over, but there is no objective reason for it, so I find this poll to be believable. Tester isn't especially popular or moderate and Trump should still be reasonably popular in Montana.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #32 on: October 23, 2018, 08:33:25 am »

College poll with decimals from several weeks ago.

*sigh*

Realllllly wish we could get someone else to come in here so we don’t have to settle for this or that farcical Tester +24

It would actually be really funny if the election actually did end up being around that margin...

The thing is, I think the margin looks within reason.

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...what? As in, they sent polls to people's houses? Am I missing something?

That... doesn’t strike me as best practice
Some of these colleges still do that mail ballot thing (there was one in PA that did as well in 2016 IIRC). Problem is there's a dearth of polling in a state like Montana to get a good idea of where the race is at this point other than to assume that it's basically a tossup.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #33 on: October 23, 2018, 08:40:08 am »

College poll with decimals from several weeks ago.

*sigh*

Realllllly wish we could get someone else to come in here so we donít have to settle for this or that farcical Tester +24

It would actually be really funny if the election actually did end up being around that margin...

The thing is, I think the margin looks within reason.

Quote
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...what? As in, they sent polls to people's houses? Am I missing something?

That... doesnít strike me as best practice
Some of these colleges still do that mail ballot thing (there was one in PA that did as well in 2016 IIRC). Problem is there's a dearth of polling in a state like Montana to get a good idea of where the race is at this point other than to assume that it's basically a tossup.

Does MT have restrictions on polling like IN and ND do, or are people just not that interested in it as a state?
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Seriously?
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« Reply #34 on: October 23, 2018, 11:31:42 am »

College poll with decimals from several weeks ago.

*sigh*

Realllllly wish we could get someone else to come in here so we donít have to settle for this or that farcical Tester +24

It would actually be really funny if the election actually did end up being around that margin...

The thing is, I think the margin looks within reason.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

...what? As in, they sent polls to people's houses? Am I missing something?

That... doesnít strike me as best practice
Some of these colleges still do that mail ballot thing (there was one in PA that did as well in 2016 IIRC). Problem is there's a dearth of polling in a state like Montana to get a good idea of where the race is at this point other than to assume that it's basically a tossup.

Does MT have restrictions on polling like IN and ND do, or are people just not that interested in it as a state?
I think it's just a tiny state population wise, so not so much on many's radar. Kind of like Rhode Island or Delaware rarely getting polled.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #35 on: October 23, 2018, 11:53:47 am »

But I thought Tester was up by 24???
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #36 on: October 23, 2018, 02:30:28 pm »

Glad to have a solid poll of the race, too bad it was taken several weeks ago. Still a Toss-Up.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #37 on: October 23, 2018, 06:28:05 pm »

That fat fingerless f*** needs to go down. #SendTrumpReinforcements

I have this taint-waffle on ignore, so I canít report him, but this kind of BS warrants an infraction.

lmao

anyway, @bagel

I just wanted some alliterative appeal. What's wrong with that?

KingSweden's non-alliterative nickname for you was funnier.
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Politician
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« Reply #38 on: November 10, 2018, 09:03:25 am »

MSU Gold standard!
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #39 on: November 10, 2018, 11:29:05 am »

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The Invisible Hand (that suicided Jeffrey Epstein)
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« Reply #40 on: November 10, 2018, 12:36:04 pm »


Either that or they are lucky. Sometimes its better to be lucky than good.
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Joshua
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« Reply #41 on: November 10, 2018, 01:12:25 pm »

#TitaniumTester
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Neoliberal EDUCATED Kansan
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« Reply #42 on: November 10, 2018, 04:23:10 pm »

These mail-ballot polls probably make it easier to reach voters in more conservative rural areas. Even before the election, it should have been obvious that this was more accurate than all the Tester +9 polls or whatever. Montana isnít as "elastic" as many here are making it out to be.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #43 on: November 10, 2018, 04:55:41 pm »

I have this on my R pickup list, and have since last July. In the end there won't be a whiff of difference between flattop and his colleague adjacent east. There's no way a state that voted against Hillary Clinton by 20 points, and loves assaulting journalists, will reelect a Democrat.

Well, let's start with the fact that R+36 is a lot different than R+20. That alone would erase Heitkamp's deficit, all else being equal.

#calledit
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