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December 08, 2019, 11:45:37 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions close today at noon

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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  Fox Polls: AZ: Tie ; IN: Donnelly +7; MO: Tie; TN: Blackburn +9; ND: Cramer +9
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Author Topic: Fox Polls: AZ: Tie ; IN: Donnelly +7; MO: Tie; TN: Blackburn +9; ND: Cramer +9  (Read 3463 times)
Calthrina950
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« Reply #25 on: October 31, 2018, 05:18:08 pm »

The IN poll is garbage (WAY too high undecideds). The rest are not very revelatory.

Indiana does seem to be unrealistic. I can see Donnelly leading, but not by that margin. The NBC/Marist poll is probably closer to the truth. The other polls, however, do seem very reasonable. Blackburn and Cramer are virtually guaranteed to win at this point, while Sinema and McCaskill each have a 50-50 shot. McCaskill's prospects actually appear to be a little better than I thought, though I have never written her off completely.
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Trump Is Smarter Than You
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« Reply #26 on: October 31, 2018, 05:18:40 pm »
« Edited: October 31, 2018, 05:54:33 pm by Brittain33 »


I hope these are the real final numbers on November 6

AZ: Sinema 48% McSally 52%
IN: Donnelly 45% Braun 50% Brenton 5%
MO: McCaskill 45% Hawley 53% Jaspethwhateverhisname is 2%
TN: Bredesen 43% Blackburn 57%
ND: Heitkamp 42% Cramer 58%




note that in December 2017 they had it Moore 40% Jones 50% undecided 8% and the REAL FINAL RESULT was Moore 48% Jones 50% !!!!!!!!!!!
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #27 on: October 31, 2018, 05:20:15 pm »


real final numbers on November 6

AZ: Sinema 48% McSally 52%
IN: Donnelly 45% Braun 50% Brenton 5%
MO: McCaskill 45% Hawley 53% Jaspethwhateverhisname is 2%
TN: Bredesen 43% Blackburn 57%
ND: Heitkamp 42% Cramer 58%



You seem very confident about these races. While I would not be surprised if Blackburn and Cramer win by double digits, I highly doubt that Hawley, Braun, or McSally will receive an absolute majority, let alone win by more than 3-4 points.
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Mondale
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« Reply #28 on: October 31, 2018, 05:20:26 pm »

A 50 50 Senate looks like the most likely outcome. Fundamentals win again
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new_patomic
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« Reply #29 on: October 31, 2018, 05:21:14 pm »

note that in December 2017 they had it Moore 40% Jones 50% undecided 8% and the REAL FINAL RESULT was Moore 48% Jones 50% !!!!!!!!!!!
Imagine trying to extrapolate polling error from a December special election in Alabama to every poll nationally.
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Trump Is Smarter Than You
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« Reply #30 on: October 31, 2018, 05:22:27 pm »

note that in December 2017 they had it Moore 40% Jones 50% undecided 8% and the REAL FINAL RESULT was Moore 48% Jones 50% !!!!!!!!!!!
Imagine trying to extrapolate polling error from a December special election in Alabama to every poll nationally.

Well who knows, maybe it's a legit strategy
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #31 on: October 31, 2018, 05:24:31 pm »

They also polled NV: Heller +5

/s
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Yank2133
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« Reply #32 on: October 31, 2018, 05:25:37 pm »


real final numbers on November 6

AZ: Sinema 48% McSally 52%
IN: Donnelly 45% Braun 50% Brenton 5%
MO: McCaskill 45% Hawley 53% Jaspethwhateverhisname is 2%
TN: Bredesen 43% Blackburn 57%
ND: Heitkamp 42% Cramer 58%




note that in December 2017 they had it Moore 40% Jones 50% undecided 8% and the REAL FINAL RESULT was Moore 48% Jones 50% !!!!!!!!!!!

You know, I don't mind you thinking R's will sweep all these races. But Hawley winning by 7 is stuff of hacks.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #33 on: October 31, 2018, 05:26:30 pm »


LOL, that wouldn't even surprise me if it was true.
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DataGuy
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« Reply #34 on: October 31, 2018, 05:34:14 pm »

As I was explaining in another thread a few days ago, this Indiana poll shows exactly why models do not counteract their fundamentals predictions too fast based on a small number of challenger-friendly polls.

However, the undecideds in the Indiana poll do look like they would probably tilt Republican. Whites without college degrees have 12% undecided, while whites with college degrees have only 2% undecided. And the former group is definitely more Republican than the latter.
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #35 on: October 31, 2018, 05:34:58 pm »

I got excited about the IN margin until I saw Donnelly at 45%. Damn.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #36 on: October 31, 2018, 05:36:42 pm »

Maybe those Chnage Research polls from Indiana weren't so craptackular after all.
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cvparty
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« Reply #37 on: October 31, 2018, 05:39:38 pm »

As I was explaining in another thread a few days ago, this Indiana poll shows exactly why models do not counteract their fundamentals predictions too fast based on a small number of challenger-friendly polls.

However, the undecideds in the Indiana poll do look like they would probably tilt Republican. Whites without college degrees have 12% undecided, while whites with college degrees have only 2% undecided. And the former group is definitely more Republican than the latter.

in a state like indiana, not necessarily
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #38 on: October 31, 2018, 05:39:42 pm »

LOL, Donnelly +23 among Indies. The Marist Crap Show continues.

Ya'll can gloat about that Poll BUT FOX NEWS will have apparently IN-SEN Poll as well @6pm.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #39 on: October 31, 2018, 05:43:24 pm »

LOL, Donnelly +23 among Indies. The Marist Crap Show continues.

Ya'll can gloat about that Poll BUT FOX NEWS will have apparently IN-SEN Poll as well @6pm.

lmao!
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #40 on: October 31, 2018, 05:43:32 pm »

As I was explaining in another thread a few days ago, this Indiana poll shows exactly why models do not counteract their fundamentals predictions too fast based on a small number of challenger-friendly polls.

However, the undecideds in the Indiana poll do look like they would probably tilt Republican. Whites without college degrees have 12% undecided, while whites with college degrees have only 2% undecided. And the former group is definitely more Republican than the latter.

in a state like indiana, not necessarily
Young won whites no college by 15%.
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« Reply #41 on: October 31, 2018, 05:43:53 pm »

I don’t see AZ voting seven points to the right of IN just because Donnelly is the incumbent, and I highly doubt that Republicans have the same chance of winning AZ as MO.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #42 on: October 31, 2018, 05:45:01 pm »

all those Republicans will overperform. McSally will win by around +4, Braun will probably win by at least +2, Hawley will win by +6, Blackburn and Cramer will win by double digits.

With this type of clairvoyance, why are you wasting time on this forum and not winning the lottery daily?
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Bagel23
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« Reply #43 on: October 31, 2018, 05:47:06 pm »

Should have polled WV
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DataGuy
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« Reply #44 on: October 31, 2018, 05:49:21 pm »

As I was explaining in another thread a few days ago, this Indiana poll shows exactly why models do not counteract their fundamentals predictions too fast based on a small number of challenger-friendly polls.

However, the undecideds in the Indiana poll do look like they would probably tilt Republican. Whites without college degrees have 12% undecided, while whites with college degrees have only 2% undecided. And the former group is definitely more Republican than the latter.

in a state like indiana, not necessarily
Young won whites no college by 15%.

That's not what I'm seeing on the CNN exit polls. https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/indiana/senate

They show that Young was actually +26 (60-34) with whites no degree and +15 (55-40) with white college graduates. So, an 11-point difference.
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Trump Is Smarter Than You
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« Reply #45 on: October 31, 2018, 05:50:22 pm »

all those Republicans will overperform. McSally will win by around +4, Braun will probably win by at least +2, Hawley will win by +6, Blackburn and Cramer will win by double digits.

With this type of clairvoyance, why are you wasting time on this forum and not winning the lottery daily?

maybe I am winning the lottery daily. You don't know me
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KingSweden
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« Reply #46 on: October 31, 2018, 05:52:30 pm »

all those Republicans will overperform. McSally will win by around +4, Braun will probably win by at least +2, Hawley will win by +6, Blackburn and Cramer will win by double digits.

With this type of clairvoyance, why are you wasting time on this forum and not winning the lottery daily?

+1 for use of “clairvoyance”
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #47 on: October 31, 2018, 06:13:34 pm »

As I was explaining in another thread a few days ago, this Indiana poll shows exactly why models do not counteract their fundamentals predictions too fast based on a small number of challenger-friendly polls.

However, the undecideds in the Indiana poll do look like they would probably tilt Republican. Whites without college degrees have 12% undecided, while whites with college degrees have only 2% undecided. And the former group is definitely more Republican than the latter.

in a state like indiana, not necessarily
Young won whites no college by 15%.

That's not what I'm seeing on the CNN exit polls. https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/indiana/senate

They show that Young was actually +26 (60-34) with whites no degree and +15 (55-40) with white college graduates. So, an 11-point difference.
You're right.  I mistakenly looked at the overall non-college vote and not the white non-college vote.
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North Fulton Swing
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« Reply #48 on: October 31, 2018, 06:21:01 pm »

Not bad.  A D+1 result in the Senate is still very much in play.  Looking at the Trump approvals by state, Arizona seems too bullish on Trump and Indiana seems too bearish on Trump.

Would be nice to see a D+1 but I think 50:50 is probably best case scenario.  Heitkamp looks unlikely to survive, and unfortunately, it looks tough for Bredesen.  We'll have to hope for flips in Arizona and Nevada--and then look to a special election in 2019.  Still, it's looking better than a couple of weeks ago.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #49 on: October 31, 2018, 06:22:25 pm »

Regarding Indiana, the suburban vote is VERY pro-Donnelly.  Assuming he wins IN-05, then I'll bet my assets that Danny O'Connor wins in OH-12.
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