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December 11, 2019, 05:12:53 pm
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  Fox Polls: AZ: Tie ; IN: Donnelly +7; MO: Tie; TN: Blackburn +9; ND: Cramer +9
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Author Topic: Fox Polls: AZ: Tie ; IN: Donnelly +7; MO: Tie; TN: Blackburn +9; ND: Cramer +9  (Read 3479 times)
Comrade Funk
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« Reply #50 on: October 31, 2018, 06:28:07 pm »

Surprised Donnelly is up by 7.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #51 on: October 31, 2018, 06:40:40 pm »

Trump's approval looks too high in these polls.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #52 on: October 31, 2018, 06:41:55 pm »

Donnelly leading by 7 seems like a real stretch, even if it is extremely reassuring that he's still in it. McCaskill's tie isn't great, but at least she isn't down. She might still be in it too. In spite of those two making dumb ads that denigrate the Democratic base, we need them in the Senate. Arizona kind of looks weird to me. It's possibly realistic but I'm fairly certain that it will be voting to the left of Missouri and Indiana at the very least. Heitkamp is undeniably toast though.
Even with her expected loss, it would still make my night for Democrats to either not lose any seats, or even gain one. That's indicative of a good night overall for the House and gubernatorial races too. Please let this happen!
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #53 on: October 31, 2018, 07:46:03 pm »

Blackburn isn't up 9
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Trump Is Smarter Than You
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« Reply #54 on: October 31, 2018, 07:52:18 pm »
« Edited: October 31, 2018, 08:47:49 pm by Brittain33 »


yeah I believe that she's probably up by high double digits
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #55 on: October 31, 2018, 07:55:07 pm »

5 was by Vox Populi
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cvparty
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« Reply #56 on: October 31, 2018, 09:13:21 pm »

i feel like you might explode on nov 6
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Trump Is Smarter Than You
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« Reply #57 on: October 31, 2018, 09:14:23 pm »

i feel like you might explode on nov 6

yeah, with joy at all the Republican victories when we hold the House and massively expand our lead in the Senate
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #58 on: October 31, 2018, 09:27:55 pm »

Considering the expected Democratic performances throughout the rest of the rust belt, are people really surprised to see Donnelly with such a healthy lead?  I don't expect him to win by 7 but I could easily see a 4 or 5 point win happen.
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Pericles
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« Reply #59 on: October 31, 2018, 09:39:08 pm »

Looks at IN, TN, AZ. Guess #trashdamentals weren't so trash after all.
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RJ
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« Reply #60 on: October 31, 2018, 09:40:22 pm »


I;m with them. I sure wish the Senate polling looked like the Gubernatorial polling in these midterms...
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
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« Reply #61 on: October 31, 2018, 10:22:43 pm »

Sticking with my prediction of Dems gaining NV/AZ, Pubs gaining ND for a Dem net gain of one.

If I had an option to either take that or leave it, I would so take that in a heartbeat. I am afraid McCaskill will lose. I'd say most likely at the moment is Rs pick up ND and MO, and Dems pick up NV and AZ. But Rs have a chance at AZ/MT/IN (although I think Dems are a bit favored in each of them).
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Neoliberal EDUCATED Kansan
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« Reply #62 on: October 31, 2018, 10:47:59 pm »

Sticking with my prediction of Dems gaining NV/AZ, Pubs gaining ND for a Dem net gain of one.

If I had an option to either take that or leave it, I would so take that in a heartbeat. I am afraid McCaskill will lose. I'd say most likely at the moment is Rs pick up ND and MO, and Dems pick up NV and AZ. But Rs have a chance at AZ/MT/IN (although I think Dems are a bit favored in each of them).

I don’t quite think FL is lost for Rs yet, but I pretty much agree with this. ND > MO > IN > MT > FL > AZ is how I would rank them, although the last three are debatable.
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Hammy
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« Reply #63 on: November 01, 2018, 01:55:15 am »

Interesting, results quite a bit left of where I was expecting for a Fox poll.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #64 on: November 01, 2018, 03:14:56 am »

Damn it Sad

Love the Indiana numbers, was hoping for a Tennessee miracle
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Badger
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« Reply #65 on: November 01, 2018, 03:21:22 am »

Well, good news for Sinema that she’s tied in a sample that 52% of voters approve of Trump. {Hint: Trump’s approval is not higher in Arizona than Indiana}
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J. J.
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« Reply #66 on: November 01, 2018, 09:13:14 am »

I would not be too thrilled about the AZ CNN polls.

On the CNN poll, Simema down four points from her last CNN poll.  She is down two points from the last Fox poll.
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Webnicz
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« Reply #67 on: November 01, 2018, 12:06:50 pm »

I know everyone says “early voting numbers don’t matter” and the at might be accurate in other states but in AZ early voting is 80% of the election and as much of a proud dem in AZ that I am, we aren’t doing so good.
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Trump Is Smarter Than You
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« Reply #68 on: November 02, 2018, 01:45:55 am »

meanwhile...back in 2016

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=248408.0

Thread: IN-Monmouth: Bayh +6


"Oh, what a relief.  I've been concerned that this one was a goner."

"Nice! Bayh has only lost 1 point in two months regardless of his crappy campaign."

"If Young loses this (which I think is likely), I hope he runs against Donnelly in 2018. "

"Clearly, people were engraving Bayh's tombstone a bit prematurely. He's not a lock by any means, but it's clear that Young can't count on Trump to pull him over the finish line."


"Bayh's favorable are still higher even after all the crap that's come out about him. That family name is gold in Indiana.

Bayh is beating Young by 10 points in the 50+ range and only 2 points in the 18-49 range."

"Bayh is more likely, so I guess tilt dem. This poll does not match other info, especially since I've heard internals on both sides show a tight race. "



Reality: Young 52.1% Bayh 42.4% Brenton 5.5%     

BRAUN WILL WIN...and so will many other GOP candidates
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Hammy
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« Reply #69 on: November 02, 2018, 05:49:44 am »

meanwhile...back in 2016

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=248408.0

Thread: IN-Monmouth: Bayh +6


"Oh, what a relief.  I've been concerned that this one was a goner."

"Nice! Bayh has only lost 1 point in two months regardless of his crappy campaign."

"If Young loses this (which I think is likely), I hope he runs against Donnelly in 2018. "

"Clearly, people were engraving Bayh's tombstone a bit prematurely. He's not a lock by any means, but it's clear that Young can't count on Trump to pull him over the finish line."


"Bayh's favorable are still higher even after all the crap that's come out about him. That family name is gold in Indiana.

Bayh is beating Young by 10 points in the 50+ range and only 2 points in the 18-49 range."

"Bayh is more likely, so I guess tilt dem. This poll does not match other info, especially since I've heard internals on both sides show a tight race. "



Reality: Young 52.1% Bayh 42.4% Brenton 5.5%     

BRAUN WILL WIN...and so will many other GOP candidates

That poll was almost a month out, this one is a little over a week out--in the world of politics that's an eternity's difference and as such the two aren't really comparable, and this is a generally right-leaning poll while Monmouth was left-leaning.

Though I still think 50/50 Indiana is gone we're not going to see this poll end up 15+ points to the left of the result.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #70 on: November 02, 2018, 05:51:36 am »

I know everyone says “early voting numbers don’t matter” and the at might be accurate in other states but in AZ early voting is 80% of the election and as much of a proud dem in AZ that I am, we aren’t doing so good.

AZ-08 AZ-08 AZ-08

how many times does this need to be said
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Lok
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« Reply #71 on: November 02, 2018, 06:13:57 am »

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Galletito
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« Reply #72 on: November 02, 2018, 08:08:04 am »

i feel like you might explode on nov 6

yeah, with joy at all the Republican victories when we hold the House and massively expand our lead in the Senate

Anybody wanna guess who NYC Millenial Minority is masquerading as? Also, what are the chances that they're some random white straight guy lurker?
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2016
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« Reply #73 on: November 02, 2018, 09:00:58 am »

I know everyone says “early voting numbers don’t matter” and the at might be accurate in other states but in AZ early voting is 80% of the election and as much of a proud dem in AZ that I am, we aren’t doing so good.

AZ-08 AZ-08 AZ-08

how many times does this need to be said

Wrong, CNN said Sinema lead Early Vote 54-43 and Marist said 51-47. Both of these Polls are just pure FANTASY.

GOP currently has a 116K Ballot Advantage in AZ. For starters for Sinema to be tied in the Early Vote she would need to have NPA Voters 70-30 in her favour. That is not happening, no way. ZERO Chance. Even if Sinema holds D's in Early Voting 94-6 and McSally holds Republicans let's say 88-12 Sinema still would need NPA Voters to break her way 68-32 or something like that.

So, the notion that Sinema is leading EV is completely Baloney.
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
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« Reply #74 on: November 02, 2018, 10:17:37 am »

I know everyone says “early voting numbers don’t matter” and the at might be accurate in other states but in AZ early voting is 80% of the election and as much of a proud dem in AZ that I am, we aren’t doing so good.

AZ-08 AZ-08 AZ-08

how many times does this need to be said

Wrong, CNN said Sinema lead Early Vote 54-43 and Marist said 51-47. Both of these Polls are just pure FANTASY.

GOP currently has a 116K Ballot Advantage in AZ. For starters for Sinema to be tied in the Early Vote she would need to have NPA Voters 70-30 in her favour. That is not happening, no way. ZERO Chance. Even if Sinema holds D's in Early Voting 94-6 and McSally holds Republicans let's say 88-12 Sinema still would need NPA Voters to break her way 68-32 or something like that.

So, the notion that Sinema is leading EV is completely Baloney.

FWIW, in the NYT/Siena poll, if you look at the microdata you can see how people with different party registrations who said they early voted voted, to see how they came up with McSally leading early voters. Caveat being that this is a small sample size, but if you want to actually see how they got their #s, you can see.

Counting unweighted #s of people, out of 178 people in the poll who said they early voted, 69 (39%) were registered Rs, 58 (33%) were registered Ds, and 51 (29%) were registered Ds.

The registered Ds split their vote 49-7-2 (Sinema-McSally-Refused_to_say)
The registered Rs split their vote 8-59-2 (Sinema-McSally-Refused_to_say)
The registered Indepents/NPAs split their vote 32-18-1 (Sinema-McSally-Refused_to_say)

In percentage terms, that is Sinema winning registered Ds 84%-12%, McSally winning registered Rs 86%-12%, and Sinema winning registered Independents/NPAs 63%-35%.

And overall, that comes out to Sinema winning the early voters 50%-47%.

Then if you apply the NYT/Siena polls weighting, that gets you to Sinema leading among early voters 51%-45%.

Granted, this does not prove that Sinema is leading with early voters, and these are small sub-samples.  But this is how Sinema can be leading with early voters despite Rs having a registration advantage. And indeed, Sinema is handily winning voters with no party affiliation in the sample, which is how she can win even if there is an R registration advantage. Granted also the sample could be somewhat off, and it is quite possible that McSally could be winning early voters (but probably not by much). We have had several polls all with Sinema winning or competitive among the early vote subsample. That does suggest that despite party registration, Sinema will at least be fairly competitive in the early vote, and then we have to see what the election day vote is like.

You are just being deliberately obtuse or willfully blind, you are smart enough that there is no way that you do not understand this.

Party registration /= votes. Duh.
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