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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  Fox Polls: AZ: Tie ; IN: Donnelly +7; MO: Tie; TN: Blackburn +9; ND: Cramer +9
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Author Topic: Fox Polls: AZ: Tie ; IN: Donnelly +7; MO: Tie; TN: Blackburn +9; ND: Cramer +9  (Read 3467 times)
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« Reply #75 on: November 02, 2018, 11:07:42 am »

I know everyone says “early voting numbers don’t matter” and the at might be accurate in other states but in AZ early voting is 80% of the election and as much of a proud dem in AZ that I am, we aren’t doing so good.

AZ-08 AZ-08 AZ-08

how many times does this need to be said

Wrong, CNN said Sinema lead Early Vote 54-43 and Marist said 51-47. Both of these Polls are just pure FANTASY.

GOP currently has a 116K Ballot Advantage in AZ. For starters for Sinema to be tied in the Early Vote she would need to have NPA Voters 70-30 in her favour. That is not happening, no way. ZERO Chance. Even if Sinema holds D's in Early Voting 94-6 and McSally holds Republicans let's say 88-12 Sinema still would need NPA Voters to break her way 68-32 or something like that.

So, the notion that Sinema is leading EV is completely Baloney.

FWIW, in the NYT/Siena poll, if you look at the microdata you can see how people with different party registrations who said they early voted voted, to see how they came up with McSally leading early voters. Caveat being that this is a small sample size, but if you want to actually see how they got their #s, you can see.

Counting unweighted #s of people, out of 178 people in the poll who said they early voted, 69 (39%) were registered Rs, 58 (33%) were registered Ds, and 51 (29%) were registered Ds.

The registered Ds split their vote 49-7-2 (Sinema-McSally-Refused_to_say)
The registered Rs split their vote 8-59-2 (Sinema-McSally-Refused_to_say)
The registered Indepents/NPAs split their vote 32-18-1 (Sinema-McSally-Refused_to_say)

In percentage terms, that is Sinema winning registered Ds 84%-12%, McSally winning registered Rs 86%-12%, and Sinema winning registered Independents/NPAs 63%-35%.

And overall, that comes out to Sinema winning the early voters 50%-47%.

Then if you apply the NYT/Siena polls weighting, that gets you to Sinema leading among early voters 51%-45%.

Granted, this does not prove that Sinema is leading with early voters, and these are small sub-samples.  But this is how Sinema can be leading with early voters despite Rs having a registration advantage. And indeed, Sinema is handily winning voters with no party affiliation in the sample, which is how she can win even if there is an R registration advantage. Granted also the sample could be somewhat off, and it is quite possible that McSally could be winning early voters (but probably not by much). We have had several polls all with Sinema winning or competitive among the early vote subsample. That does suggest that despite party registration, Sinema will at least be fairly competitive in the early vote, and then we have to see what the election day vote is like.

You are just being deliberately obtuse or willfully blind, you are smart enough that there is no way that you do not understand this.

Party registration /= votes. Duh.

Sinema ain't winning Registered Independents/NPA by 63-35. That just isn't happening. The MOE for the Supsample of Early Voters is 10. That tells quite a lot

I'm operating from a Raw Ballot Advantage where GOP leads by 116K. You are so full of crap.

Also CNN Poll said Sinema is leading McSally by 17 Points in Maricopa County. If that were true at all Sinema would have a landslide win like Napolitano in the Gov Race 2006.
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Trump Is Smarter Than You
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« Reply #76 on: November 02, 2018, 11:21:18 am »

i feel like you might explode on nov 6

yeah, with joy at all the Republican victories when we hold the House and massively expand our lead in the Senate

Anybody wanna guess who NYC Millenial Minority is masquerading as? Also, what are the chances that they're some random white straight guy lurker?


-random
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you are only 40% right. That is close to the percentage your side will have in the Senate after all is said and done. Coincidence?
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Trump Is Smarter Than You
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« Reply #77 on: November 09, 2018, 05:50:44 pm »




AZ: Sinema 48% McSally 52%
IN: Donnelly 45% Braun 50% Brenton 5%
MO: McCaskill 45% Hawley 53% Jaspethwhateverhisname is 2%
TN: Bredesen 43% Blackburn 57%
ND: Heitkamp 42% Cramer 58%




note that in December 2017 they had it Moore 40% Jones 50% undecided 8% and the REAL FINAL RESULT was Moore 48% Jones 50% !!!!!!!!!!!

Looks like I wasn't that far off lmaoo
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History505
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« Reply #78 on: November 09, 2018, 07:24:19 pm »




AZ: Sinema 48% McSally 52%
IN: Donnelly 45% Braun 50% Brenton 5%
MO: McCaskill 45% Hawley 53% Jaspethwhateverhisname is 2%
TN: Bredesen 43% Blackburn 57%
ND: Heitkamp 42% Cramer 58%





note that in December 2017 they had it Moore 40% Jones 50% undecided 8% and the REAL FINAL RESULT was Moore 48% Jones 50% !!!!!!!!!!!

Looks like I wasn't that far off lmaoo
Good job!
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #79 on: November 10, 2018, 06:21:41 am »

I don't want to hear sh**t anymore like "let's wait for Fox". lol they missed Indiana by 13 points. That's inexcusable.
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« Reply #80 on: November 11, 2018, 01:31:03 pm »

I don't want to hear sh**t anymore like "let's wait for Fox". lol they missed Indiana by 13 points. That's inexcusable.

Fox polls have this phenomenon where they get the Democratic candidate's vote % just right, but all the undecideds break for the Republican.

See: Doug Jones vs Roy Moore, and these 2018 polls
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #81 on: November 11, 2018, 01:35:03 pm »

I don't want to hear sh**t anymore like "let's wait for Fox". lol they missed Indiana by 13 points. That's inexcusable.

Fox polls have this phenomenon where they get the Democratic candidate's vote % just right, but all the undecideds break for the Republican.

See: Doug Jones vs Roy Moore, and these 2018 polls
Indiana is a reverse Nevada in that polling tends to underestimate the GOP (whereas in Nevada, it underestimates the Democrats).

John Gregg went from leading in the polls by mid-single digits all throughout the post-Labor Day polling to being statistically tied with Eric Holcomb in the final two weeks.  We all know who ended up becoming Governor...
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