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December 10, 2019, 05:19:00 am
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  Fox Polls: AZ: Tie ; IN: Donnelly +7; MO: Tie; TN: Blackburn +9; ND: Cramer +9 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Fox Polls: AZ: Tie ; IN: Donnelly +7; MO: Tie; TN: Blackburn +9; ND: Cramer +9  (Read 3468 times)
libertpaulian
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« on: October 31, 2018, 05:03:40 pm »
« edited: October 31, 2018, 05:10:00 pm by libertpaulian »

N U T at those Indiana numbers!!!

Air Claire still tied...

Bredesen and Heitkamp are done.

McSally can't lead even in a FOX poll.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2018, 05:36:42 pm »

Maybe those Chnage Research polls from Indiana weren't so craptackular after all.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2018, 05:43:32 pm »

As I was explaining in another thread a few days ago, this Indiana poll shows exactly why models do not counteract their fundamentals predictions too fast based on a small number of challenger-friendly polls.

However, the undecideds in the Indiana poll do look like they would probably tilt Republican. Whites without college degrees have 12% undecided, while whites with college degrees have only 2% undecided. And the former group is definitely more Republican than the latter.

in a state like indiana, not necessarily
Young won whites no college by 15%.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2018, 06:13:34 pm »

As I was explaining in another thread a few days ago, this Indiana poll shows exactly why models do not counteract their fundamentals predictions too fast based on a small number of challenger-friendly polls.

However, the undecideds in the Indiana poll do look like they would probably tilt Republican. Whites without college degrees have 12% undecided, while whites with college degrees have only 2% undecided. And the former group is definitely more Republican than the latter.

in a state like indiana, not necessarily
Young won whites no college by 15%.

That's not what I'm seeing on the CNN exit polls. https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/indiana/senate

They show that Young was actually +26 (60-34) with whites no degree and +15 (55-40) with white college graduates. So, an 11-point difference.
You're right.  I mistakenly looked at the overall non-college vote and not the white non-college vote.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2018, 06:22:25 pm »

Regarding Indiana, the suburban vote is VERY pro-Donnelly.  Assuming he wins IN-05, then I'll bet my assets that Danny O'Connor wins in OH-12.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2018, 01:35:03 pm »

I don't want to hear sh**t anymore like "let's wait for Fox". lol they missed Indiana by 13 points. That's inexcusable.

Fox polls have this phenomenon where they get the Democratic candidate's vote % just right, but all the undecideds break for the Republican.

See: Doug Jones vs Roy Moore, and these 2018 polls
Indiana is a reverse Nevada in that polling tends to underestimate the GOP (whereas in Nevada, it underestimates the Democrats).

John Gregg went from leading in the polls by mid-single digits all throughout the post-Labor Day polling to being statistically tied with Eric Holcomb in the final two weeks.  We all know who ended up becoming Governor...
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