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January 21, 2020, 01:27:22 am
News: 2020 U.S. Senate Predictions are now active.

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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  Fox Polls: AZ: Tie ; IN: Donnelly +7; MO: Tie; TN: Blackburn +9; ND: Cramer +9 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Fox Polls: AZ: Tie ; IN: Donnelly +7; MO: Tie; TN: Blackburn +9; ND: Cramer +9  (Read 3609 times)
Calthrina950
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« on: October 31, 2018, 05:18:08 pm »

The IN poll is garbage (WAY too high undecideds). The rest are not very revelatory.

Indiana does seem to be unrealistic. I can see Donnelly leading, but not by that margin. The NBC/Marist poll is probably closer to the truth. The other polls, however, do seem very reasonable. Blackburn and Cramer are virtually guaranteed to win at this point, while Sinema and McCaskill each have a 50-50 shot. McCaskill's prospects actually appear to be a little better than I thought, though I have never written her off completely.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2018, 05:20:15 pm »


real final numbers on November 6

AZ: Sinema 48% McSally 52%
IN: Donnelly 45% Braun 50% Brenton 5%
MO: McCaskill 45% Hawley 53% Jaspethwhateverhisname is 2%
TN: Bredesen 43% Blackburn 57%
ND: Heitkamp 42% Cramer 58%



You seem very confident about these races. While I would not be surprised if Blackburn and Cramer win by double digits, I highly doubt that Hawley, Braun, or McSally will receive an absolute majority, let alone win by more than 3-4 points.
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