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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  Fox Polls: AZ: Tie ; IN: Donnelly +7; MO: Tie; TN: Blackburn +9; ND: Cramer +9 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Fox Polls: AZ: Tie ; IN: Donnelly +7; MO: Tie; TN: Blackburn +9; ND: Cramer +9  (Read 3610 times)
DataGuy
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« on: October 31, 2018, 05:34:14 pm »

As I was explaining in another thread a few days ago, this Indiana poll shows exactly why models do not counteract their fundamentals predictions too fast based on a small number of challenger-friendly polls.

However, the undecideds in the Indiana poll do look like they would probably tilt Republican. Whites without college degrees have 12% undecided, while whites with college degrees have only 2% undecided. And the former group is definitely more Republican than the latter.
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DataGuy
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2018, 05:49:21 pm »

As I was explaining in another thread a few days ago, this Indiana poll shows exactly why models do not counteract their fundamentals predictions too fast based on a small number of challenger-friendly polls.

However, the undecideds in the Indiana poll do look like they would probably tilt Republican. Whites without college degrees have 12% undecided, while whites with college degrees have only 2% undecided. And the former group is definitely more Republican than the latter.

in a state like indiana, not necessarily
Young won whites no college by 15%.

That's not what I'm seeing on the CNN exit polls. https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/indiana/senate

They show that Young was actually +26 (60-34) with whites no degree and +15 (55-40) with white college graduates. So, an 11-point difference.
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