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Author Topic: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3  (Read 744 times)
Old School Republican
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« on: October 31, 2018, 05:12:20 pm »

https://hoffmanresearchgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/PRESS-RELEASE-OR-Gov-Poll-10-30-18.pdf


Brown 45%
Buehler 42%

Previous Poll had Brown up 10
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Titanium R OH-01
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2018, 05:15:58 pm »

Brown is going to win. Deal with it.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2018, 05:16:09 pm »


Unfortunately, because of how inflexible Oregon is, and because of the national environment, Brown will probably still win. It is a frustration, given that Buehler seems to be a genuinely good candidate and a moderate (of the type that I would support). This race is Lean Democratic.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2018, 05:18:58 pm »

The Oregonian which is a very liberal paper endorsed Buehler


Also If the GOP loses this race, it will be the fault of the national GOP for spending more resources in CA than OR
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RussFeingoldWasRobbedk
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2018, 05:22:37 pm »

Buhler is a good candidate, I've got to admit. But wrong year.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2018, 05:22:57 pm »

The Oregonian which is a very liberal paper endorsed Buehler


Also If the GOP loses this race, it will be the fault of the national GOP for spending more resources in CA than OR

Even if Republicans had invested more resources in Oregon, Buehler would still lose. This year is just not the right environment for him to win, particularly since Oregon is a Democratic state.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2018, 05:25:23 pm »

The Oregonian which is a very liberal paper endorsed Buehler


Also If the GOP loses this race, it will be the fault of the national GOP for spending more resources in CA than OR

Even if Republicans had invested more resources in Oregon, Buehler would still lose. This year is just not the right environment for him to win, particularly since Oregon is a Democratic state.

Well if race is within 3 points then yes they would have won.

Also KGW, KATU, KOIN (our local news stations) all say the race is super close and could go either way and so do all the state wide experts
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2018, 05:25:53 pm »

The Oregonian which is a very liberal paper endorsed Buehler


Also If the GOP loses this race, it will be the fault of the national GOP for spending more resources in CA than OR

President Hillary Clinton agrees that newspaper endorsements win elections.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2018, 05:31:42 pm »

Buehler probably would have easily won in 2010
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2018, 05:32:43 pm »

Buehler probably would have easily won in 2010

Sadly we nominated Dudley instead whos claim to fame is getting dunked on by Shaq
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2018, 05:33:24 pm »

Buehler strikes me as someone who will underperform pretty badly in the more conservative/rural parts of the state.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2018, 05:33:55 pm »

The Oregonian which is a very liberal paper endorsed Buehler


Also If the GOP loses this race, it will be the fault of the national GOP for spending more resources in CA than OR

President Hillary Clinton agrees that newspaper endorsements win elections.

Hillary also had super high unfavorables


In this case Buheler is viewed as a net favorable while Brown is viewed as net unfavorable
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NV less likely to flip than FL
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2018, 05:35:47 pm »

Safe D, fool's gold.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2018, 05:38:06 pm »

Safe D, fool's gold.


How is a race which has almost every poll within 5 points viewed as Safe or even likely lol
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2018, 05:40:16 pm »

Safe D, fool's gold.


How is a race which has almost every poll within 5 points viewed as Safe or even likely lol

Fundamentals matter. If this is flipping, Dems are having single digit gains in the House at best, losing at least 5 Senate seats, and doing really badly in governorships.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2018, 05:43:34 pm »

Safe D, fool's gold.


How is a race which has almost every poll within 5 points viewed as Safe or even likely lol

Fundamentals matter. If this is flipping, Dems are having single digit gains in the House, losing at least 5 Senate seats, and doing really badly in governorships.

Not nearly as much for a gubernatorial race as a senate or house race and one fundemental your leaving out is Brown is unpopular
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2018, 05:44:14 pm »

Safe D, fool's gold.


How is a race which has almost every poll within 5 points viewed as Safe or even likely lol

This is something I wonder about as well. I don't understand why any single-digit race anywhere would be considered "safe" for one party or the other. Particularly one in which the leading candidate has less than an absolute majority and there is still a number of undecideds. However, as I said earlier, Oregon will not flip under these circumstances. Now, if this were a Clinton midterm, Buehler would probably be favored.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2018, 05:44:55 pm »

Safe D, fool's gold.


How is a race which has almost every poll within 5 points viewed as Safe or even likely lol

Because it's Oregon and a Democratic wave year. If polls had TN-GOV within 5 in a Republican wave year, it would also be Safe R.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2018, 05:47:56 pm »

This could end up close, but I really don't think this is the right year for Republicans in Oregon. Maybe if they nominated Buehler in 2010 or 2014 they would've won.
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Neoliberalbusters
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« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2018, 05:49:02 pm »

This could end up close, but I really don't think this is the right year for Republicans in Oregon. Maybe if they nominated Beuhler in 2010 or 2014 they would've won.
Yeah. Not sure why they nominated Dudley in 2010 or Richardson in 2014 (who to his credit won the SOS election in 2016.)
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Ἅιδης
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« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2018, 05:54:03 pm »

Does Brown's bisexuality have to do with her bad polling numbers?
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2018, 05:57:00 pm »

Does Brown's bisexuality have to do with her bad polling numbers?

No, its Oregon. I highly doubt it hurts her.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #22 on: November 01, 2018, 02:16:43 am »

I wish so much that every Kobach vote could go to Buehler instead. Then both states would get decent governors for a change.
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pops
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« Reply #23 on: November 01, 2018, 02:18:49 am »

This always happens in statewide Oregon races, Republicans spend big, polls show a close race, and Dems win by 4-6%.
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mgop
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« Reply #24 on: November 01, 2018, 08:19:02 am »

buehler is classic rino, i'm glad he will lose just like rauner. we don't need more rino governors. hogan, baker and scott are more than enough.
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