OR-Hoffman: Brown +3

[Calthrina950]

https://hoffmanresearchgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/PRESS-RELEASE-OR-Gov-Poll-10-30-18.pdf


Brown 45%
Buehler 42%

Previous Poll had Brown up 10

Unfortunately, because of how inflexible Oregon is, and because of the national environment, Brown will probably still win. It is a frustration, given that Buehler seems to be a genuinely good candidate and a moderate (of the type that I would support). This race is Lean Democratic.

[Calthrina950]

The Oregonian which is a very liberal paper endorsed Buehler


Also If the GOP loses this race, it will be the fault of the national GOP for spending more resources in CA than OR

Even if Republicans had invested more resources in Oregon, Buehler would still lose. This year is just not the right environment for him to win, particularly since Oregon is a Democratic state.

[Calthrina950]

Safe D, fool's gold.

How is a race which has almost every poll within 5 points viewed as Safe or even likely lol

This is something I wonder about as well. I don't understand why any single-digit race anywhere would be considered "safe" for one party or the other. Particularly one in which the leading candidate has less than an absolute majority and there is still a number of undecideds. However, as I said earlier, Oregon will not flip under these circumstances. Now, if this were a Clinton midterm, Buehler would probably be favored.