Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 20, 2019, 05:59:09 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: New features added! Click here for more information. Click here to configure new features.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections
| | |-+  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
| | | |-+  OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7  (Read 1220 times)
Ronnie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,836
United States
P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 31, 2018, 09:35:57 pm »

Martha McSally: 52%
Kirsten Sinema: 45%

https://t.co/Qw19Ev1TnE?amp=1
Logged

Born, raised, and currently residing in Southern California
Hindsight is 2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,216
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2018, 09:36:57 pm »

Hahahahahahahahaha.
Logged

Election days come and go. But the struggle of the people to create a government which represents all of us and not just the one percent-a government based on the principles of economic, social, racial, and environmental justice-that struggle continues.-Bernie Sanders
Invisible Obama
DrScholl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,574
United States



View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2018, 09:37:24 pm »

This is the clear outlier.
Logged

LOCK TRUMP UP!
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2018, 09:37:56 pm »

Yeah, okay
Logged
Fremont Speaker ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,090
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2018, 09:38:28 pm »

HAHAHAHHAAHAHHAHAHAHHA.

THIS is what the guy trying to unskew A-rated gold standard polls is putting out? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
Logged
The Inevitable Kevin Stitt
Mizzouian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,507
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2018, 09:38:31 pm »

These are the clowns that had Trump approval at +11
Logged
Bennet or Bust
scutosaurus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,015
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.19, S: -6.57

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2018, 09:38:42 pm »

David Garcia has a better chance at winning than McSally does at winning by 7
Logged

Michael F. Bennet will be the next President of the United States.
Senator Zaybay
Zaybay
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,200
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2018, 09:49:08 pm »

Are you kidding me? These guys were complaining about how high quality pollsters werent polling correctly, and then they do this....
Logged

SN2903
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,073
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.70

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2018, 09:49:32 pm »

Sinema is a fraud and Arizona voters are gonna vote against her.
Logged
Hindsight is 2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,216
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2018, 09:51:58 pm »

Are you kidding me? These guys were complaining about how high quality pollsters werent polling correctly, and then they do this....
Normally people who complain about polling like that are the biggest hacks
Logged

Election days come and go. But the struggle of the people to create a government which represents all of us and not just the one percent-a government based on the principles of economic, social, racial, and environmental justice-that struggle continues.-Bernie Sanders
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2018, 09:53:01 pm »

Sinema been leading in every poll except this one. But AZ is a center right state. However, just like in NV, and TX, there is a hidden Latino vote the polls are underestimating
Logged
Webnicz
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 452
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2018, 09:54:19 pm »

The way this pollster casually promotes mcsally on twitter is concerning, something to look at when analyzing at this poll.

https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1056608283723583489?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1052354755966582784?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051993626320896000?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051967203224969216?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051905978398990336?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1050558419482992640?s=21

Logged

Sinema For U.S. Senate
Bevinevitable
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,565
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2018, 09:58:25 pm »

Logged

TheRocketRaccoon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 726
Singapore


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2018, 10:02:02 pm »

McFlop is a fraud and Arizona voters are gonna vote against her.
Logged
Senator Zaybay
Zaybay
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,200
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2018, 10:10:37 pm »

Quote
The chief pollster for OH Predictive Insights says the shift in numbers is being linked to the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh and the caravan of migrants headed to the United States.
"If Kavanaugh didn't happen I think it'd be an extremely tight race," Noble said. "If not, I'd actually say the edge would go to Sinema but after seeing the polling - seeing the results - everything else - I think that McSally will end up winning coming election night."

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Logged

Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,702
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2018, 10:10:45 pm »

No idea why a media outlet is using a GOP firm with such a poor record.
Logged
libertpaulian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,336
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2018, 10:13:14 pm »

Didn't 538 say they have a 100% track record?
Logged

Libertarian temporarily rooting for the Dems until the GOP purges itself of Trumpism.  Before you call me a righty or a leftist, wait until you see my post on an issue.  You'll get whiplash trying to figure me out.

Region Rat.  Libertarian.  ELCA Lutheran.  Juvenile Attorney for the State of Indiana.

2020 Presidential Endorsement: Anyone NOT Trump, a proponent of Bernie-ism, or a proponent of Tumblr SJW-ism.  Weld 2020, I guess.
Gass3268
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,368
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2018, 10:16:59 pm »

Poll is over a week old too.
Logged

Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:

1. Warren
2. Gillibrand
3. Castro
4. Ojeda
5. Delaney
6. Gabbard
Gass3268
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,368
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2018, 10:18:59 pm »

Didn't 538 say they have a 100% track record?

They've only rated two of their polls, but they gave them a C+.
Logged

Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:

1. Warren
2. Gillibrand
3. Castro
4. Ojeda
5. Delaney
6. Gabbard
Joni Ernst 20∞
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,190
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2018, 10:30:45 pm »

About as believable as the Donnelly +7 poll.
Logged



Countdown timer to Joni Ernst's victory speech

Remember when MT Treasurer spent months and months telling us all that Heitkamp is favored and will easily win because of retail politics (TM)
Notorious Right-Winger Beto O'Rourke (NRBO)
The Impartial Spectator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,679


P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2018, 10:38:16 pm »

Martha McSally is sure acting awfully strange for someone who is allegedly up by 7 points.
Logged

O'Rourke today is probably the most far-left candidate out there. Running of Medicare-for-all, abolishing ICE, No PAC money along with positions like impeaching Trump. In 2018, O'Rourke is to the left of Sanders & Warren & Brown !

Notorious Right-Winger Beto O'Rourke (NRBO)
The Impartial Spectator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,679


P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2018, 10:43:05 pm »

So, I was going to try to unskew the crosstabs, but it seems that this poll doesn't even have any crosstabs. It is just a news article with no poll details.

Are they somewhere that I am just not seeing? What is their turnout model etc? How can I be expected to unskew it without anything more than a topline?
Logged

O'Rourke today is probably the most far-left candidate out there. Running of Medicare-for-all, abolishing ICE, No PAC money along with positions like impeaching Trump. In 2018, O'Rourke is to the left of Sanders & Warren & Brown !

Fremont Speaker ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,090
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2018, 10:46:46 pm »

So, I was going to try to unskew the crosstabs, but it seems that this poll doesn't even have any crosstabs. It is just a news article with no poll details.

Are they somewhere that I am just not seeing? What is their turnout model etc? How can I be expected to unskew it without anything more than a topline?

They are doing a press release tomorrow. They DID have a Trump +11 approval and R+9 GCB in their last poll though, and that was McSally +6. So expect something nuts like double digit Trump net approval and maybe even a double digit R lead in the GCB.
Logged
Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,366
United States
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2018, 10:47:18 pm »

McSally is done
Logged
pppolitics
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,023


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 31, 2018, 11:44:38 pm »


Those tweets tell you everything you need to know about this pollster
Logged

Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines