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November 15, 2019, 05:30:38 pm
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  FL Panhandle Haas Center: Scott +7 in the Panhandle
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Author Topic: FL Panhandle Haas Center: Scott +7 in the Panhandle  (Read 3187 times)
Cory Booker
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« Reply #25 on: August 20, 2018, 12:52:33 pm »

Scott narrowly wins this one.
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Xing
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« Reply #26 on: August 20, 2018, 12:59:50 pm »

I mean, it's not unreasonable to think that Nelson could do better than Clinton in the Panhandle, and worse in Miami-Dade, but the idea that Scott would win Miami-Dade while underperforming Trump by 20 in the Panhandle is absurd. It's not 1976 anymore.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #27 on: August 20, 2018, 03:20:29 pm »

If he only gets +7 in the panhandle, put a fork in him. I am going to be an edgelord to and say that the state parties in Florida aren't partying like its 1899.
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Skye
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« Reply #28 on: August 20, 2018, 04:36:05 pm »

I mean, it's not unreasonable to think that Nelson could do better than Clinton in the Panhandle, and worse in Miami-Dade, but the idea that Scott would win Miami-Dade while underperforming Trump by 20 in the Panhandle is absurd. It's not 1976 anymore.

FTFY.
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#Kavanaugh For Prison
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« Reply #29 on: August 20, 2018, 04:40:36 pm »

If Scott is only leading by single digits in the Panhandle, then he is definitely trailing by double digits statewide.
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Devils30
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« Reply #30 on: August 20, 2018, 05:14:54 pm »

Nelson will win Dade and lose Liberty, Franklin in northern FL. However, I could see him stronger than expected in Sarasota, Pinellas, Seminole.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #31 on: August 20, 2018, 06:48:52 pm »

If Scott is only leading by single digits in the Panhandle, then he is definitely trailing by double digits statewide.

haha not how it works.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #32 on: August 20, 2018, 07:10:16 pm »

This is a good poll for Nelson, if traditional voting patterns hold. However, Scott is trying very hard to pander to Hispanics, and poll after poll shows that it appears to be working, with him being only narrowly behind in that demographic. Nelson will need to win his traditional Dixiecrats in traditionally Republican areas to make up for it.

Make no mistake: If Nelson loses among Hispanics, he loses the election.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #33 on: August 20, 2018, 07:44:28 pm »

I'm surprised nobody has yet commented on the polling details that indicate that "Rocky" the Republican appears to be bagging some 5-7% of the Votes in this poll of the Florida Panhandle....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocky_De_La_Fuente

Obviously 3rd Party votes tend to drop off a bit once voters actually go into the ballot box to choose their horse in the race, but where will "Rocky's" voters go this coming November?Huh

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Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear
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« Reply #34 on: August 20, 2018, 10:52:26 pm »

These are great numbers for a Democrat in the Panhandle...

The white kind of Democrat can play very well there.
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Priest of Moloch
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« Reply #35 on: August 20, 2018, 10:58:08 pm »

These are great numbers for a Democrat in the Panhandle...

The white kind of Democrat can play very well there.

Nah, this is the sort of thinking that's led the FDP into oblivion. Those candidates can statistically overperform somewhat, win a couple more counties (ex: Alex Sink), but Nelson's the only Democrat who can reliably generate a meaningful number of votes out of the Panhandle. He has deep family roots in Washington County, an extensive network, etc etc. People try to mimic the formula, but none of the (white conservative) Dems the FDP has nominated have ever come close to pulling it off.
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #36 on: August 20, 2018, 11:00:19 pm »

These are great numbers for a Democrat in the Panhandle...

The white kind of Democrat can play very well there.

Nah, this is the sort of thinking that's led the FDP into oblivion. Those candidates can statistically overperform somewhat, win a couple more counties (ex: Alex Sink), but Nelson's the only Democrat who can reliably generate a meaningful number of votes out of the Panhandle. He has deep family roots in Washington County, an extensive network, etc etc. People try to mimic the formula, but none of the (white conservative) Dems the FDP has nominated have ever come close to pulling it off.

Heís also the only Dem who can do nearly as well as he does on the Space Coast.
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Use Your Illusion
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« Reply #37 on: August 21, 2018, 10:13:06 am »

It's entirely possible I'm over-thinking this but Duval County has proven very malleable and flips between red and blue every other senatorial cycle and Republicans carry it by better margins than Nelson. What evidence do we have to support the claim that they'll continue supporting him at a better margin than his 2012 performance of 50,000 considering he won by about half that in 2006 and lost in 2000? Nelson does not appear to be doing himself a whole lot of favors right now and I'm wondering what the odds of a flip are.
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Use Your Illusion
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« Reply #38 on: August 21, 2018, 10:30:04 am »

And +7 is a worrisome figure for Scott in the pandhandle. That number should be about 1.5 times higher. I'm very curious to see exactly by how much is Nelson over-performing in some of these areas because I don't think you can stretch his support in the Tallahassee area any further than it already is. 
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #39 on: August 21, 2018, 06:55:01 pm »

This race makes no damn sense! It's a very accurate representation of Florida.
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Speaker OneJ
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« Reply #40 on: August 21, 2018, 09:49:26 pm »

But everyone was telling me that it's lean R because muh St. Leo and other garbage Florida pollsters. The race will really begin after the primary anyway.
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henster
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« Reply #41 on: August 21, 2018, 10:14:58 pm »

A lot of the FL polls have a big number of undecideds with neither candidate breaking 45%, which is strange considering how high profile both candidates are. I think the undecideds lean D, maybe younger and Hispanic voters less familiar with Nelson.
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #42 on: August 21, 2018, 10:16:20 pm »

A lot of the FL polls have a big number of undecideds with neither candidate breaking 45%, which is strange considering how high profile both candidates are. I think the undecideds lean D, maybe younger and Hispanic voters less familiar with Nelson.

That's because a lot of the FL polls are from junk pollsters like Saint Leo and FAU.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #43 on: August 24, 2018, 10:43:50 am »

RINO Tom would love this!
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #44 on: November 13, 2018, 05:46:49 pm »

LMAO
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #45 on: November 13, 2018, 06:03:29 pm »

This was the result in the panhandle:

Scott: 377,331 (60.0%)
Nelson: 251,231 (40.0%)

Without Gadsden and Leon counties it is...

Scott: 322,527 (68.8%)
Nelson: 146,269 (31.2%)
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UWS
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« Reply #46 on: November 13, 2018, 08:24:41 pm »

This was the result in the panhandle:

Scott: 377,331 (60.0%)
Nelson: 251,231 (40.0%)

Without Gadsden and Leon counties it is...

Scott: 322,527 (68.8%)
Nelson: 146,269 (31.2%)

Panhandle is the main reason why Scott will still win in the recount.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #47 on: November 18, 2018, 12:26:48 pm »

Iíll be #edgy and predict that there will be no realignment. Scott will do better with Hispanics than Republicans usually do, yeah, but if he wins it will be because Nelson absolutely collapsed in the Panhandle and other GOP areas.

Yeah, pretty much what happened... (although Scott did better than expected in Miami-Dade, tbf).
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #48 on: November 18, 2018, 12:29:22 pm »

I mean, it's not unreasonable to think that Nelson could do better than Clinton in the Panhandle, and worse in Miami-Dade, but the idea that Scott would win Miami-Dade while underperforming Trump by 20 in the Panhandle is absurd. It's not 1976 anymore.

FTFY.

No, he was right, sorry. Turns out Scott didnít underperform Trump by 20 in the Panhandle!
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Skye
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« Reply #49 on: November 18, 2018, 01:09:24 pm »

I mean, it's not unreasonable to think that Nelson could do better than Clinton in the Panhandle, and worse in Miami-Dade, but the idea that Scott would win Miami-Dade while underperforming Trump by 20 in the Panhandle is absurd. It's not 1976 anymore.

FTFY.

No, he was right, sorry. Turns out Scott didnít underperform Trump by 20 in the Panhandle!
?

I just used the strike through so that the statement would look like this:

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