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Author Topic: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7  (Read 1450 times)
Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #25 on: November 01, 2018, 07:30:07 pm »

No idea why a media outlet is using a GOP firm with such a poor record.

Anything to push a "Democrats are doomed" narrative.
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Florida is, and always will be, the worst state in the country!
olowakandi
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« Reply #26 on: November 01, 2018, 07:34:33 pm »

Let them have egg on their face when Sinema, Rosen and Bredesen win, which can compensate for the loss of ND
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #27 on: November 01, 2018, 07:36:19 pm »

Let them have egg on their face when Sinema, Rosen and Bredesen win, which can compensate for the loss of ND

The loss of Heitkamp may indeed be compensated for if everything goes right for Donnelly and McCaskill, but Bredesen is not going to win.
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Florida is, and always will be, the worst state in the country!
IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #28 on: November 01, 2018, 08:36:51 pm »

Quote
They've only rated two of their polls, but they gave them a C+.

Given 538's track record perhaps they should be assessing 538, not the other way around.
 

 
 
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Economy is the method by which we prepare today to afford the improvements of tomorrow. - Coolidge.
libertpaulian
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« Reply #29 on: November 01, 2018, 08:47:21 pm »

Quote
They've only rated two of their polls, but they gave them a C+.

Given 538's track record perhaps they should be assessing 538, not the other way around.
 

 
 

538's number crunching is the creme de la creme of poll analysis.

I agree, though, that their punditry is mediocre.
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Libertarian temporarily rooting for the Dems until the GOP purges itself of Trumpism.  Before you call me a righty or a leftist, wait until you see my post on an issue.  You'll get whiplash trying to figure me out.

Region Rat.  Libertarian.  ELCA Lutheran.  Juvenile Attorney for the State of Indiana.

2020 Presidential Endorsement: Anyone NOT Trump, a proponent of Bernie-ism, or a proponent of Tumblr SJW-ism.  Weld 2020, I guess.
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strangeland
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« Reply #30 on: November 02, 2018, 09:49:11 am »

Quote
They've only rated two of their polls, but they gave them a C+.

Given 538's track record perhaps they should be assessing 538, not the other way around.
 

 
 

538's number crunching is the creme de la creme of poll analysis.

I agree, though, that their punditry is mediocre.


Yes, 538 came closer to predicting a Trump victory than nearly anyone else (IIRC, their chance of a Trump victory was around 30% on election day, when nearly all the other prognosticators had the chance at less than 5%). But again, Nate's model is only as good as the polls that feed into it.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #31 on: November 02, 2018, 09:51:00 am »

Not buying this poll
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Politician
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« Reply #32 on: November 13, 2018, 04:49:59 pm »

Junk poll!
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Ross Miller 2020
RussFeingoldWasRobbedk
Progress96
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« Reply #33 on: November 13, 2018, 10:02:31 pm »

Trash.
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2020 Senate Dream Team
CO- Neguse/Carroll
IA- Cindy Axne(so we can run DeJear for IA-03)
MT- Bullock
KS- Barry Grissom
AZ- Ruben Gallego
ME- Jared Golden
NC- Jeff Jackson
GA- Sanford Bishop/Stacey Abrams(other should run for Senate/Gov 2022)
TX- Colin Allred
VA- Lee Carter
2020-
1. Gillibrand
2. O'Rourke
3. Sanders
Snek!
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #34 on: November 14, 2018, 07:23:02 am »

This was definitely an Outlier. McSally was leading the RCP by a point and lost by two on ED but only after some weird polls were added in. 
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