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February 18, 2019, 12:48:59 am
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OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
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Topic: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7 (Read 1443 times)
Ronnie
YaBB God
Posts: 7,842
OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
on:
October 31, 2018, 09:35:57 pm »
Martha McSally: 52%
Kirsten Sinema: 45%
https://t.co/Qw19Ev1TnE?amp=1
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Born, raised, and currently residing in Southern California
Hindsight is 2020
YaBB God
Posts: 4,284
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #1 on:
October 31, 2018, 09:36:57 pm »
Hahahahahahahahaha.
Logged
Election days come and go. But the struggle of the people to create a government which represents all of us and not just the one percent-a government based on the principles of economic, social, racial, and environmental justice-that struggle continues.-Bernie Sanders
Invisible Obama
DrScholl
YaBB God
Posts: 8,759
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #2 on:
October 31, 2018, 09:37:24 pm »
This is the clear outlier.
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LOCK TRUMP UP!
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
Posts: 23,004
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #3 on:
October 31, 2018, 09:37:56 pm »
Yeah, okay
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Fremont Speaker ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
YaBB God
Posts: 4,292
Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #4 on:
October 31, 2018, 09:38:28 pm »
HAHAHAHHAAHAHHAHAHAHHA.
THIS is what the guy trying to unskew A-rated gold standard polls is putting out? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
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The Inevitable Kevin Stitt
Mizzouian
YaBB God
Posts: 3,565
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #5 on:
October 31, 2018, 09:38:31 pm »
These are the clowns that had Trump approval at +11
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Bennet or Bust
scutosaurus
YaBB God
Posts: 1,131
Political Matrix
E: -0.19, S: -6.57
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #6 on:
October 31, 2018, 09:38:42 pm »
David Garcia has a better chance at winning than McSally does at winning by 7
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Iowa is Case Country
Senator Zaybay
Zaybay
YaBB God
Posts: 4,520
Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #7 on:
October 31, 2018, 09:49:08 pm »
Are you kidding me? These guys were complaining about how high quality pollsters werent polling correctly, and then they do this....
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SN2903
YaBB God
Posts: 1,181
Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 0.00
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #8 on:
October 31, 2018, 09:49:32 pm »
Sinema is a fraud and Arizona voters are gonna vote against her.
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Hindsight is 2020
YaBB God
Posts: 4,284
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #9 on:
October 31, 2018, 09:51:58 pm »
Quote from: Senator-Elect Zaybay on October 31, 2018, 09:49:08 pm
Are you kidding me? These guys were complaining about how high quality pollsters werent polling correctly, and then they do this....
Normally people who complain about polling like that are the biggest hacks
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Election days come and go. But the struggle of the people to create a government which represents all of us and not just the one percent-a government based on the principles of economic, social, racial, and environmental justice-that struggle continues.-Bernie Sanders
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
Posts: 23,004
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #10 on:
October 31, 2018, 09:53:01 pm »
Sinema been leading in every poll except this one. But AZ is a center right state. However, just like in NV, and TX, there is a hidden Latino vote the polls are underestimating
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Webnicz
Sr. Member
Posts: 465
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #11 on:
October 31, 2018, 09:54:19 pm »
The way this pollster casually promotes mcsally on twitter is concerning, something to look at when analyzing at this poll.
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1056608283723583489?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1052354755966582784?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051993626320896000?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051967203224969216?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051905978398990336?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1050558419482992640?s=21
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Sinema For U.S. Senate (‘18)
Mark Kelly For U.S. Senate
Bevinevitable
IceSpear
YaBB God
Posts: 30,565
Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #12 on:
October 31, 2018, 09:58:25 pm »
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TheRocketRaccoon
YaBB God
Posts: 726
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #13 on:
October 31, 2018, 10:02:02 pm »
Quote from: SN2903 on October 31, 2018, 09:49:32 pm
McFlop is a fraud and Arizona voters are gonna vote against her.
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Senator Zaybay
Zaybay
YaBB God
Posts: 4,520
Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #14 on:
October 31, 2018, 10:10:37 pm »
Quote
The chief pollster for OH Predictive Insights says the shift in numbers is being linked to the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh and the caravan of migrants headed to the United States.
"If Kavanaugh didn't happen I think it'd be an extremely tight race," Noble said. "If not, I'd actually say the edge would go to Sinema but after seeing the polling - seeing the results - everything else - I think that McSally will end up winning coming election night."
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
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Ebsy
YaBB God
Posts: 7,708
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #15 on:
October 31, 2018, 10:10:45 pm »
No idea why a media outlet is using a GOP firm with such a poor record.
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libertpaulian
YaBB God
Posts: 3,428
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #16 on:
October 31, 2018, 10:13:14 pm »
Didn't 538 say they have a 100% track record?
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Libertarian temporarily rooting for the Dems until the GOP purges itself of Trumpism. Before you call me a righty or a leftist, wait until you see my post on an issue. You'll get whiplash trying to figure me out.
Region Rat. Libertarian. ELCA Lutheran. Juvenile Attorney for the State of Indiana.
2020 Presidential Endorsement: Anyone NOT Trump, a proponent of Bernie-ism, or a proponent of Tumblr SJW-ism. Weld 2020, I guess.
Gass3268
YaBB God
Posts: 18,555
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #17 on:
October 31, 2018, 10:16:59 pm »
Poll is over a week old too.
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Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:
1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Klobuchar
4. Gillibrand
5. Castro
6. Buttigieg
7. Booker
8. Delaney
9. Gabbard
Gass3268
YaBB God
Posts: 18,555
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #18 on:
October 31, 2018, 10:18:59 pm »
Quote from: libertpaulian on October 31, 2018, 10:13:14 pm
Didn't 538 say they have a 100% track record?
They've only rated two of their polls, but they gave them a C+.
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Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:
1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Klobuchar
4. Gillibrand
5. Castro
6. Buttigieg
7. Booker
8. Delaney
9. Gabbard
Joni Ernst 20∞
IndyRep
YaBB God
Posts: 17,370
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #19 on:
October 31, 2018, 10:30:45 pm »
About as believable as the Donnelly +7 poll.
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populist neoliberal elitist corporatist polarized record levels polarization elastic inelastic elasticity inelasticity college-educated fiscally conservative socially liberal moderate reasonable wwc
Countdown timer to Joni Ernst's victory speech
Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
The Impartial Spectator
YaBB God
Posts: 3,815
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #20 on:
October 31, 2018, 10:38:16 pm »
Martha McSally is sure acting
awfully strange
for someone who is allegedly up by 7 points.
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Axis of Evil, Triumvirate of Tyranny: US Senate, SCOTUS, Electoral College
Quote from: Shadows on November 09, 2018, 02:59:16 pm
ORourke today is probably the most far-left candidate out there. Running of Medicare-for-all, abolishing ICE, No PAC money along with positions like impeaching Trump.
In 2018, O'Rourke is to the left of Sanders & Warren & Brown !
Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
The Impartial Spectator
YaBB God
Posts: 3,815
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #21 on:
October 31, 2018, 10:43:05 pm »
So, I was going to try to unskew the crosstabs, but it seems that this poll doesn't even have any crosstabs. It is just a news article with no poll details.
Are they somewhere that I am just not seeing? What is their turnout model etc? How can I be expected to unskew it without anything more than a topline?
Logged
Axis of Evil, Triumvirate of Tyranny: US Senate, SCOTUS, Electoral College
Quote from: Shadows on November 09, 2018, 02:59:16 pm
ORourke today is probably the most far-left candidate out there. Running of Medicare-for-all, abolishing ICE, No PAC money along with positions like impeaching Trump.
In 2018, O'Rourke is to the left of Sanders & Warren & Brown !
Fremont Speaker ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
YaBB God
Posts: 4,292
Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #22 on:
October 31, 2018, 10:46:46 pm »
Quote from: INCUMBENT Cruz Will Win 👁 on October 31, 2018, 10:43:05 pm
So, I was going to try to unskew the crosstabs, but it seems that this poll doesn't even have any crosstabs. It is just a news article with no poll details.
Are they somewhere that I am just not seeing? What is their turnout model etc? How can I be expected to unskew it without anything more than a topline?
They are doing a press release tomorrow. They DID have a Trump +11 approval and R+9 GCB in their last poll though, and that was McSally +6. So expect something nuts like double digit Trump net approval and maybe even a double digit R lead in the GCB.
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Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
YaBB God
Posts: 5,500
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #23 on:
October 31, 2018, 10:47:18 pm »
McSally is done
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pppolitics
YaBB God
Posts: 1,065
Re: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
«
Reply #24 on:
October 31, 2018, 11:44:38 pm »
Quote from: Webnicz on October 31, 2018, 09:54:19 pm
The way this pollster casually promotes mcsally on twitter is concerning, something to look at when analyzing at this poll.
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1056608283723583489?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1052354755966582784?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051993626320896000?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051967203224969216?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051905978398990336?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1050558419482992640?s=21
Those tweets tell you everything you need to know about this pollster
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