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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7
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Author Topic: OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7  (Read 1819 times)
Ronnie
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« on: October 31, 2018, 09:35:57 pm »

Martha McSally: 52%
Kirsten Sinema: 45%

https://t.co/Qw19Ev1TnE?amp=1
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2018, 09:36:57 pm »

Hahahahahahahahaha.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2018, 09:37:24 pm »

This is the clear outlier.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2018, 09:37:56 pm »

Yeah, okay
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2018, 09:38:28 pm »

HAHAHAHHAAHAHHAHAHAHHA.

THIS is what the guy trying to unskew A-rated gold standard polls is putting out? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
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Bennet Bro
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2018, 09:38:42 pm »

David Garcia has a better chance at winning than McSally does at winning by 7
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Councilor Zaybay
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2018, 09:49:08 pm »

Are you kidding me? These guys were complaining about how high quality pollsters werent polling correctly, and then they do this....
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SN2903
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2018, 09:49:32 pm »

Sinema is a fraud and Arizona voters are gonna vote against her.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2018, 09:51:58 pm »

Are you kidding me? These guys were complaining about how high quality pollsters werent polling correctly, and then they do this....
Normally people who complain about polling like that are the biggest hacks
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olowakandi
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2018, 09:53:01 pm »

Sinema been leading in every poll except this one. But AZ is a center right state. However, just like in NV, and TX, there is a hidden Latino vote the polls are underestimating
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Webnicz
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2018, 09:54:19 pm »

The way this pollster casually promotes mcsally on twitter is concerning, something to look at when analyzing at this poll.

https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1056608283723583489?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1052354755966582784?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051993626320896000?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051967203224969216?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051905978398990336?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1050558419482992640?s=21

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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2018, 09:58:25 pm »

Img
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2018, 10:02:02 pm »

McFlop is a fraud and Arizona voters are gonna vote against her.
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Councilor Zaybay
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2018, 10:10:37 pm »

Quote
The chief pollster for OH Predictive Insights says the shift in numbers is being linked to the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh and the caravan of migrants headed to the United States.
"If Kavanaugh didn't happen I think it'd be an extremely tight race," Noble said. "If not, I'd actually say the edge would go to Sinema but after seeing the polling - seeing the results - everything else - I think that McSally will end up winning coming election night."

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
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Ebsy
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2018, 10:10:45 pm »

No idea why a media outlet is using a GOP firm with such a poor record.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2018, 10:13:14 pm »

Didn't 538 say they have a 100% track record?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2018, 10:16:59 pm »

Poll is over a week old too.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2018, 10:18:59 pm »

Didn't 538 say they have a 100% track record?

They've only rated two of their polls, but they gave them a C+.
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IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ
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« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2018, 10:30:45 pm »

About as believable as the Donnelly +7 poll.
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
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« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2018, 10:38:16 pm »

Martha McSally is sure acting awfully strange for someone who is allegedly up by 7 points.
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
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« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2018, 10:43:05 pm »

So, I was going to try to unskew the crosstabs, but it seems that this poll doesn't even have any crosstabs. It is just a news article with no poll details.

Are they somewhere that I am just not seeing? What is their turnout model etc? How can I be expected to unskew it without anything more than a topline?
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2018, 10:46:46 pm »

So, I was going to try to unskew the crosstabs, but it seems that this poll doesn't even have any crosstabs. It is just a news article with no poll details.

Are they somewhere that I am just not seeing? What is their turnout model etc? How can I be expected to unskew it without anything more than a topline?

They are doing a press release tomorrow. They DID have a Trump +11 approval and R+9 GCB in their last poll though, and that was McSally +6. So expect something nuts like double digit Trump net approval and maybe even a double digit R lead in the GCB.
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Mondale
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« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2018, 10:47:18 pm »

McSally is done
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pppolitics
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« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2018, 11:44:38 pm »

The way this pollster casually promotes mcsally on twitter is concerning, something to look at when analyzing at this poll.

https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1056608283723583489?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1052354755966582784?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051993626320896000?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051967203224969216?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1051905978398990336?s=21
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1050558419482992640?s=21



Those tweets tell you everything you need to know about this pollster
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #24 on: November 01, 2018, 07:30:07 pm »

No idea why a media outlet is using a GOP firm with such a poor record.

Anything to push a "Democrats are doomed" narrative.
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