OH Predictive Insights- McSally +7

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let them have egg on their face when Sinema, Rosen and Bredesen win, which can compensate for the loss of ND

[Progressive Pessimist]

Let them have egg on their face when Sinema, Rosen and Bredesen win, which can compensate for the loss of ND

The loss of Heitkamp may indeed be compensated for if everything goes right for Donnelly and McCaskill, but Bredesen is not going to win.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Given 538's track record perhaps they should be assessing 538, not the other way around.
 

 
 

[libertpaulian]

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Given 538's track record perhaps they should be assessing 538, not the other way around.
 

 
 

538's number crunching is the creme de la creme of poll analysis.

I agree, though, that their punditry is mediocre.

[Stranger in a strange land]

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Given 538's track record perhaps they should be assessing 538, not the other way around.
 

 
 

538's number crunching is the creme de la creme of poll analysis.

I agree, though, that their punditry is mediocre.

Yes, 538 came closer to predicting a Trump victory than nearly anyone else (IIRC, their chance of a Trump victory was around 30% on election day, when nearly all the other prognosticators had the chance at less than 5%). But again, Nate's model is only as good as the polls that feed into it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not buying this poll

[Politician]

Junk poll!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Trash.

[Person Man]

This was definitely an Outlier. McSally was leading the RCP by a point and lost by two on ED but only after some weird polls were added in.