Canadian Election 2019

[Hatman 🍁]

Jagmeet Singh has a better chance of being the next PM than Bernier does of losing Beauce.

I like those odds!

Did you support him in the leadership election?

I did. I had been quite impressed with him up until that point. I remain hopeful that he will run a strong campaign, but I must admit that I have been disillusioned with his leadership so far.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1162080521037451265

Seems weird at first, but don't forget how crazy and disorganised the Liberal candidate and local party were last time - some of the voters who wanted to vote liberal last time may get a chance this time and so are returning. Still, +15 when they tanked further up the island is something. And remember it's a riding poll from Mainstreet, which can sometimes be wildly off.

[Hatman 🍁]

Surprised the Greens aren't way out ahead. On paper, should be an easy pickup. I mean, they have the Greens losing support! I guess this is due to Liberal voters coming home due to not voting for their resigned candidate in 2015.

[mileslunn]

Victoria did though vote Liberals back in the 90s so while I am skeptical about Liberal chances here, this is really one of those promiscous progressive ridings where overwhelming majority are on political left, but they are willing to shop around.  Interestingly enough until the 70s, this used to be a strong Social Credit and PC riding, but since then has swung to the left.  I am guessing it was more your older high class expat Brit types, whereas nowadays more a mix of a government town and a lot of small businesses in areas that generally lean progressive.

[adma]

Seems weird at first, but don't forget how crazy and disorganised the Liberal candidate and local party were last time - some of the voters who wanted to vote liberal last time may get a chance this time and so are returning. Still, +15 when they tanked further up the island is something. And remember it's a riding poll from Mainstreet, which can sometimes be wildly off.

Another thing: are these figures candidate-specific, or are they just based on generic federal preferences?  (Might explain both Lib and Con being up--I can see both options "strategized" downwards come e-day)

[136or142]

Surprised the Greens aren't way out ahead. On paper, should be an easy pickup. I mean, they have the Greens losing support! I guess this is due to Liberal voters coming home due to not voting for their resigned candidate in 2015.

The Green Party mayor of Victoria Lisa Helps isn't all that popular (only reelected with all 43.1% of the vote despite not having a high profile challenger.)  So, maybe she doesn't helps.

[mileslunn]

Surprised the Greens aren't way out ahead. On paper, should be an easy pickup. I mean, they have the Greens losing support! I guess this is due to Liberal voters coming home due to not voting for their resigned candidate in 2015.

The Green Party mayor of Victoria Lisa Helps isn't all that popular (only reelected with all 43.1% of the vote despite not having a high profile challenger.)  So, maybe she doesn't helps.

Wasn't she the one who wanted to remove the John A. Macdonald statue?  That got quite a backlash and while many were on the right, I've heard lots of other negatives about her so that kind of makes sense as on paper I think this would be one of the top targets for Greens and still is, but could be a liability rather than asset.

[136or142]

Surprised the Greens aren't way out ahead. On paper, should be an easy pickup. I mean, they have the Greens losing support! I guess this is due to Liberal voters coming home due to not voting for their resigned candidate in 2015.

The Green Party mayor of Victoria Lisa Helps isn't all that popular (only reelected with all 43.1% of the vote despite not having a high profile challenger.)  So, maybe she doesn't helps.

Wasn't she the one who wanted to remove the John A. Macdonald statue?  That got quite a backlash and while many were on the right, I've heard lots of other negatives about her so that kind of makes sense as on paper I think this would be one of the top targets for Greens and still is, but could be a liability rather than asset.

Yes,

I agreed with her on the removal of the statue.  John A MacDonald was a sleazy grifter whose corruption makes Justin Trudeau, Jean Chretien and Brian Mulroney seem mild in comparison.  However, she certainly didn't handle the issue well. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Surprised the Greens aren't way out ahead. On paper, should be an easy pickup. I mean, they have the Greens losing support! I guess this is due to Liberal voters coming home due to not voting for their resigned candidate in 2015.

The Green Party mayor of Victoria Lisa Helps isn't all that popular (only reelected with all 43.1% of the vote despite not having a high profile challenger.)  So, maybe she doesn't helps.

How many people know that she's affiliated with the Greens though? It's not on her Wikipedia page.

ETA: After reading this article, it is clear that the last mayor election was an NDP-Green proxy battle.  But still, how many people are going to associate the federal party with the administration of an officially non-partisan mayor?

[136or142]

Surprised the Greens aren't way out ahead. On paper, should be an easy pickup. I mean, they have the Greens losing support! I guess this is due to Liberal voters coming home due to not voting for their resigned candidate in 2015.

The Green Party mayor of Victoria Lisa Helps isn't all that popular (only reelected with all 43.1% of the vote despite not having a high profile challenger.)  So, maybe she doesn't helps.

How many people know that she's affiliated with the Greens though? It's not on her Wikipedia page.

ETA: After reading this article, it is clear that the last mayor election was an NDP-Green proxy battle.  But still, how many people are going to associate the federal party with the administration of an officially non-partisan mayor?

There does seem to be a greater amount of people looking at affiliate parties to judge national parties (and maybe vice versa.)  Certainly the NDP has had this issue for a long time, whether it was unpopular governments in British Columbia or Manitoba or the Bob Rae government in Ontario, but now we seem  to be seeing it with the Doug Ford Progressive Conservatives negatively impacting the Scheer Conservatives.  

Given that the only thing people have to judge the Green Party by in local areas of strength would be local governments if the Green Party are in charge, it wouldn't surprise me that an unpopular or, at least, controversial Green party affiliated mayor is going to bleed over to provincial and federal Green Party support.  To be sure, I don't think anybody would vote for the Green Party federally with the expectation they would form government, but, as all opposition parties essentially run on the notion that 'our alternative would be perfect', anything that suggests that isn't correct almost certainly has some kind of impact.

[Poirot]

Seems weird at first, but don't forget how crazy and disorganised the Liberal candidate and local party were last time - some of the voters who wanted to vote liberal last time may get a chance this time and so are returning. Still, +15 when they tanked further up the island is something. And remember it's a riding poll from Mainstreet, which can sometimes be wildly off.

Another thing: are these figures candidate-specific, or are they just based on generic federal preferences?  (Might explain both Lib and Con being up--I can see both options "strategized" downwards come e-day)

For the Beauce riding poll the choices are parties with leader's name. The riding canddiates are not all selected yet. I imagine the other Mainstreet riding polls are done the same way.

[Poirot]

The NDP has withdrawn the candidacy of Pierre Nantel in Longueuil-Saint-Hubert because he has talks with the Green party about possibly running for them.  He is out of caucus.

[136or142]

The NDP has withdrawn the candidacy of Pierre Nantel in Longueuil-Saint-Hubert because he has talks with the Green party about possibly running for them.  He is out of caucus.

Didn't he also flirt with the Bloc Quebecois and/or the Parti Quebecois?  Seems like a strange person.

[beesley]

The NDP has withdrawn the candidacy of Pierre Nantel in Longueuil-Saint-Hubert because he has talks with the Green party about possibly running for them.  He is out of caucus.

Didn't he also flirt with the Bloc Quebecois and/or the Parti Quebecois?  Seems like a strange person.

He doesn't like Jagmeet Singh.

[RogueBeaver]

Pupatello's running against Masse.

[beesley]

Pupatello's running against Masse.

Melinda Munro was a good candidate anyway, but Liberals will be rather pleased.

Windsor West was in my view the safest NDP seat in the country (other than potentially Vancouver East). We'll have to see what happens. Difficult balancing act for the NDP given that both their other local seats are vulnerable. They won't want a repeat of 2015 in St John's, where Harris got no attention and lost but they had placed all their resources into the South seat where Cleary lost to O'Regan by double digits.

[Poirot]

The NDP has withdrawn the candidacy of Pierre Nantel in Longueuil-Saint-Hubert because he has talks with the Green party about possibly running for them.  He is out of caucus.

Didn't he also flirt with the Bloc Quebecois and/or the Parti Quebecois?  Seems like a strange person.

A few months ago there were news stories asking if he would join the Bloc. He was seen at a restaurant with the Bloc leader. I heard then they are long time friends.

Nantel could be considered a nationalist. Fought on issues of culture and language. He went against his party and voted for the motion on a single tax return in Quebec with the Conservative and Bloc.

In January he said Quebec MPs of all parties should better defend Quebec's interest in Ottawa.
https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2019/01/23/le-quebec-est-mal-represente-a-ottawa-selon-un-depute-du-npd

Seems like he could fit in the Bloc.  His priority is climate emergency so maybe he saw the Greens as the best option for that. He wrote the climate emergency must be put ahead of independance, and for months invited parties to put away their differences for the planet, not let the two pro-oil partiies (Conservative and Liberal) increase oil production. I don't know if it means some electoral alliance between the other parties.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1263535/npd-destitution-candidat-pierre-nantel-parti-vert-elections-federales   

[beesley]

The NDP has withdrawn the candidacy of Pierre Nantel in Longueuil-Saint-Hubert because he has talks with the Green party about possibly running for them.  He is out of caucus.

Didn't he also flirt with the Bloc Quebecois and/or the Parti Quebecois?  Seems like a strange person.

A few months ago there were news stories asking if he would join the Bloc. He was seen at a restaurant with the Bloc leader. I heard then they are long time friends.

Nantel could be considered a nationalist. Fought on issues of culture and language. He went against his party and voted for the motion on a single tax return in Quebec with the Conservative and Bloc.

In January he said Quebec MPs of all parties should better defend Quebec's interest in Ottawa.
https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2019/01/23/le-quebec-est-mal-represente-a-ottawa-selon-un-depute-du-npd

Seems like he could fit in the Bloc.  His priority is climate emergency so maybe he saw the Greens as the best option for that. He wrote the climate emergency must be put ahead of independance, and for months invited parties to put away their differences for the planet, not let the two pro-oil partiies (Conservative and Liberal) increase oil production. I don't know if it means some electoral alliance between the other parties.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1263535/npd-destitution-candidat-pierre-nantel-parti-vert-elections-federales   

Nantel strikes me very much as someone who wants to be in the room where it happens, and joining the Greens is an odd move to do that. Joining the Bloc would allow him to combine his Quebec nationalism with his progressive ideals, whilst also providing him with a potential seat if Trudel stood down in favour of him.

[Hatman 🍁]

Pupatello's running against Masse.

Melinda Munro was a good candidate anyway, but Liberals will be rather pleased.

Windsor West was in my view the safest NDP seat in the country (other than potentially Vancouver East). We'll have to see what happens. Difficult balancing act for the NDP given that both their other local seats are vulnerable. They won't want a repeat of 2015 in St John's, where Harris got no attention and lost but they had placed all their resources into the South seat where Cleary lost to O'Regan by double digits.

Is that what happened? Our polling had Harris in trouble for much of the campaign. Someone should've told them!

[beesley]

Pupatello's running against Masse.

Melinda Munro was a good candidate anyway, but Liberals will be rather pleased.

Windsor West was in my view the safest NDP seat in the country (other than potentially Vancouver East). We'll have to see what happens. Difficult balancing act for the NDP given that both their other local seats are vulnerable. They won't want a repeat of 2015 in St John's, where Harris got no attention and lost but they had placed all their resources into the South seat where Cleary lost to O'Regan by double digits.

Is that what happened? Our polling had Harris in trouble for much of the campaign. Someone should've told them!

Yep - they were feeling especially bitter about it when Cleary ran for the PCs in what's now Ches Crosbie's riding.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/CochraneCBC/status/1163602982828728320

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/CochraneCBC/status/1163602982828728320

Still lots of time although I don't think this will necessary be a CPC pickup.  Possible but I would still give the Liberals a slight edge here.

[mileslunn]

A few updates on polls and so far it seems any impact for ethics commissioner report has not materialized at least not yet and may not at all.  Numbers still a bit over the place, but some interesting pictures emerge.

Advanced Symbolics which tries to use AI to predict results (I am bit skeptical of this, but only NDP numbers seem high, others seem about right) has Liberals 147 seats, Conservatives 139 seats, NDP 31 seats, BQ 17 seats, Green party 3 seats, PPC 1 seat.

Ekos tweeted that both parties tied at 34%, but in Ontario and Quebec large lead with it being in Quebec LPC 34%, CPC and BQ tied at 21%, NDP at 11%, GPC 10%, PPC 0.8% (wow his home province doesn't like him, but only 159 so MOE is 8.22% which is sizeable.  In Ontario big Liberal lead of LPC 43%, CPC 30%, GPC 14%, NDP 9%, PPC 3%, but sample of 301 so margin of error smaller here.

Nanos publicly shows on party power both Liberals and Tories falling but Tories falling a bit more while on best PM, Trudeau level at 31%, but Scheer falling from 25% to 23% (note this is publicly available, for raw data have to subscribe, but still these can be good lead indicators).  This is a four week rolling average and only last three days included bombshell, but little sign of it having an impact.

Ipsos has a tight race of 35% CPC, 33% LPC, 18% NDP, but unlike Ekos, CPC is 3 points ahead in Ontario, but LPC 19 points ahead in Quebec and 4 points ahead in BC.  I tend to think Liberals are ahead in Ontario but admittedly until we get more polls post Labour day tough to know just how big the lead is.  Seems everytime Ford is in the news, it hurts CPC, while when he falls off the news they rebound a bit, but still weaker than back in March.

[gottsu]

A few updates on polls and so far it seems any impact for ethics commissioner report has not materialized at least not yet and may not at all.  Numbers still a bit over the place, but some interesting pictures emerge.

Advanced Symbolics which tries to use AI to predict results (I am bit skeptical of this, but only NDP numbers seem high, others seem about right) has Liberals 147 seats, Conservatives 139 seats, NDP 31 seats, BQ 17 seats, Green party 3 seats, PPC 1 seat.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

CBC predictions are different, but they were not updated since 5 days, so maybe there were some changes due to SNC-Lavalin affair last days.

[Person Man]

A few updates on polls and so far it seems any impact for ethics commissioner report has not materialized at least not yet and may not at all.  Numbers still a bit over the place, but some interesting pictures emerge.

Advanced Symbolics which tries to use AI to predict results (I am bit skeptical of this, but only NDP numbers seem high, others seem about right) has Liberals 147 seats, Conservatives 139 seats, NDP 31 seats, BQ 17 seats, Green party 3 seats, PPC 1 seat.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

CBC predictions are different, but they were not updated since 5 days, so maybe there were some changes due to SNC-Lavalin affair last days.

So we are looking at a Liberal Minority or Liberals needs NDP to have a working majority? I don't know much about how the Canadians actually run their parliament. I know that Harper basically ran a Conservative minority government even though a clear majority of MPs were left-of-center between 2011 and 2015.
I even remember that in the aftermath of 2011, many commentators were saying that Liberals were becoming a centrist third party and that the Conservatives would be elected again, again, and again. This would happen until the NDP, the new "main opposition", could maybe eventually win one but it could be decades before that happened, if ever.
Have no ideas what Canada would be like after 4 or 5 consecutive Conservative government. Would it not much change? Would it be more or less shift from Bernie Sander's America into Biden's America? Would it become what America is now more or less or would it become a generically right-wing country where abortion is illegal and the only people who can see a doctor or get proper treatment for chronic conditions and grave illness are those who can afford it? FWIW, my understanding of Canadian immigration or even Canadian tourism law is that its already pretty Trumpy.