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UWS
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #100 on: February 06, 2019, 03:45:04 PM »

Leger Quebec poll: 39/21/21/8/6. Grit gains, Dipper shutout and Bernier threatening to split the Quebec City vote.

Which makes me thinking that Beauce, for example, could be winnable for the LPC.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #101 on: February 06, 2019, 04:39:07 PM »

Leger Quebec poll: 39/21/21/8/6. Grit gains, Dipper shutout and Bernier threatening to split the Quebec City vote.

Which makes me thinking that Beauce, for example, could be winnable for the LPC.

If you get a perfect split, absolutely, although I think Bernier's popularity is overrated in Beauce.  His riding has a large dairy farming industry so it will be interesting how his stance on supply management goes over, but certainly possible.
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Smid
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« Reply #102 on: February 06, 2019, 04:43:30 PM »
« Edited: February 06, 2019, 06:24:34 PM by Smid »

Leger Quebec poll: 39/21/21/8/6. Grit gains, Dipper shutout and Bernier threatening to split the Quebec City vote.

Which makes me thinking that Beauce, for example, could be winnable for the LPC.

If you get a perfect split, absolutely, although I think Bernier's popularity is overrated in Beauce.  His riding has a large dairy farming industry so it will be interesting how his stance on supply management goes over, but certainly possible.

He lost his own riding during the leadership ballot, if I recall correctly.

EDIT: Correction/Clarification - I've checked the Wikipedia maps, he led on the first ballot in his riding, however Scheer won a majority of his riding on the final ballot.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #103 on: February 07, 2019, 08:39:10 AM »

If everything goes perfectly for the Liberals they can win Beauce. I'd put the odds at something like 45-45-10
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #104 on: February 07, 2019, 12:55:51 PM »

Leger Quebec poll: 39/21/21/8/6. Grit gains, Dipper shutout and Bernier threatening to split the Quebec City vote.

Which makes me thinking that Beauce, for example, could be winnable for the LPC.

If you get a perfect split, absolutely, although I think Bernier's popularity is overrated in Beauce.  His riding has a large dairy farming industry so it will be interesting how his stance on supply management goes over, but certainly possible.

He lost his own riding during the leadership ballot, if I recall correctly.

EDIT: Correction/Clarification - I've checked the Wikipedia maps, he led on the first ballot in his riding, however Scheer won a majority of his riding on the final ballot.

Ironically I believe his riding has the greatest number of dairy farmers of any riding in Canada and many of them signed up specifically to stop him from becoming leader as he was the only one promising to dismantle supply management which may sell well in Alberta, but does not in rural Quebec.  Legault and Ford maybe small c conservatives but both are strong defenders of supply management as they know it would hurt a lot of their rural support.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #105 on: February 07, 2019, 04:13:59 PM »

I'm just going to pop in here and note that Quebec in 2015 was:

35.7 Lib
16.7 Con
25.4 NDP
19.3 BQ
2.4 Other

So the poll has Libs up 3, Con up 4, BQ up 2, Bernier gaining 6, and and NDP down 17.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #106 on: February 08, 2019, 06:06:40 AM »

I'm just going to pop in here and note that Quebec in 2015 was:

35.7 Lib
16.7 Con
25.4 NDP
19.3 BQ
2.4 Other

So the poll has Libs up 3, Con up 4, BQ up 2, Bernier gaining 6, and and NDP down 17.

Nowhere to go but up!
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adma
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« Reply #107 on: February 08, 2019, 07:12:39 AM »


Really?  Except for 1965 and 1988, single digits was the NDP norm for QC pre-2008.  The main thing standing in the way of that now is token incumbent seat bounce...
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #108 on: February 08, 2019, 07:14:37 AM »


Really?  Except for 1965 and 1988, single digits was the NDP norm for QC pre-2008.  The main thing standing in the way of that now is token incumbent seat bounce...

It's like at a hockey game when your team is trailing 5-1 with 5 minutes to go, and the other team scores to make it 6-1.  I always say "this will just make the comeback all the more exciting!" Smiley
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #109 on: February 13, 2019, 09:37:03 AM »

Long time Liberal MP Mark Eyking (Sydney-Victoria) will not reoffer in October. Should still be a safe Liberal seat. Other Nova Scotia Liberals not running again are Bill Casey (Cumberland-Colchester), Scott Brison (Kings-Hants) and Colin Fraser (West Nova), all of which will be more interesting races than Sydney to one degree or another.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #110 on: February 13, 2019, 02:17:42 PM »

Long time Liberal MP Mark Eyking (Sydney-Victoria) will not reoffer in October. Should still be a safe Liberal seat. Other Nova Scotia Liberals not running again are Bill Casey (Cumberland-Colchester), Scott Brison (Kings-Hants) and Colin Fraser (West Nova), all of which will be more interesting races than Sydney to one degree or another.

Sydney-Victoria is quite safe so don't think the Liberals will have any trouble holding it.  Ironically provincially it went quite heavily PC, but the PCs provincially are Red Tories so lots of crossover votes.  West Nova and Kings-Hants I think will stay Liberal too although probably tighter than 2015, but I think it will take a few elections for the Tories to recover from the 2015 disaster.  Cumberland-Colchester I could see flipping, in fact of the Nova Scotia ridings it is the only one I think the Tories have a reasonably decent shot at.  Although wouldn't be surprised if it stays Liberal as I doubt the Tories will get over 50% there and with NDP being so weak, 40% might not be enough.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #111 on: February 13, 2019, 02:25:52 PM »

With the recent cabinet resignation and bombshell on the SNC-Lavalin meeting it will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the polls.  My guess is it will have a minor impact short-term, but whether it damages the Liberals or not depends on what comes out and how long the issue drags on.  People tend to have short term memories so usually you need a whole series of such scandals to bring down a government.  Nonetheless any negative press close to the election will be what is top of mind.  I also think it depends on who the ballot question is about.  Considering how cynical Canadians are, if on Trudeau its probably bad news for the Liberals since while not hated by any means, he hasn't lived up to the high expectations people had.  But if on Scheer probably good news for Liberals as nothing inspiring about him and plenty of areas you can attack him, mind you he was safer choice than Bernier who would have been a disaster for the Conservatives.

 The Tories will try to frame it as does Trudeau deserve a second term, Liberals is Scheer too extreme and risky to vote for, and NDP neither of the two main parties are working time to try something different.  NDP's main problem is the Liberals have pushed enough leftwards so not a lot of breathing room for them. Tories by contrast do have the potential to appeal to Blue Liberals/Red Tories who are probably not keen on Trudeau's big spending, but the risk is become too centrist and risk the PPC gaining thus splitting the vote so caught in a tight spot.  Go too far right and thus fail to win the key swing voters they need, go too much towards the centre and risk a split on the right.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #112 on: February 13, 2019, 03:02:31 PM »

Long time Liberal MP Mark Eyking (Sydney-Victoria) will not reoffer in October. Should still be a safe Liberal seat. Other Nova Scotia Liberals not running again are Bill Casey (Cumberland-Colchester), Scott Brison (Kings-Hants) and Colin Fraser (West Nova), all of which will be more interesting races than Sydney to one degree or another.

Sydney-Victoria is quite safe so don't think the Liberals will have any trouble holding it.  Ironically provincially it went quite heavily PC, but the PCs provincially are Red Tories so lots of crossover votes.  West Nova and Kings-Hants I think will stay Liberal too although probably tighter than 2015, but I think it will take a few elections for the Tories to recover from the 2015 disaster.  Cumberland-Colchester I could see flipping, in fact of the Nova Scotia ridings it is the only one I think the Tories have a reasonably decent shot at.  Although wouldn't be surprised if it stays Liberal as I doubt the Tories will get over 50% there and with NDP being so weak, 40% might not be enough.

Yeah, the Tory situation in Cape Breton is really weird right now. Cape Bretoners tend to really dislike the Tories, even the provincial red ones. It was the base of the provincial Liberals for a very long time. Cape Breton is having a healthcare crisis right now due to an aging population, being unattractive to physicians etc, and they have way more hospitals per capita than the rest of the province, which are going to be consolidated. The provincial Liberals have done a poor job managing the issue, and the last Tory leader (who wasn't especially effective otherwise) did a very good job of exploiting it.

West Nova I can see as sleeper as the Tories have a star Francophone candidate.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #113 on: February 13, 2019, 05:41:42 PM »

With the recent cabinet resignation and bombshell on the SNC-Lavalin meeting it will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the polls.  My guess is it will have a minor impact short-term, but whether it damages the Liberals or not depends on what comes out and how long the issue drags on.  People tend to have short term memories so usually you need a whole series of such scandals to bring down a government.  Nonetheless any negative press close to the election will be what is top of mind.  I also think it depends on who the ballot question is about.  Considering how cynical Canadians are, if on Trudeau its probably bad news for the Liberals since while not hated by any means, he hasn't lived up to the high expectations people had.  But if on Scheer probably good news for Liberals as nothing inspiring about him and plenty of areas you can attack him, mind you he was safer choice than Bernier who would have been a disaster for the Conservatives.

 The Tories will try to frame it as does Trudeau deserve a second term, Liberals is Scheer too extreme and risky to vote for, and NDP neither of the two main parties are working time to try something different.  NDP's main problem is the Liberals have pushed enough leftwards so not a lot of breathing room for them. Tories by contrast do have the potential to appeal to Blue Liberals/Red Tories who are probably not keen on Trudeau's big spending, but the risk is become too centrist and risk the PPC gaining thus splitting the vote so caught in a tight spot.  Go too far right and thus fail to win the key swing voters they need, go too much towards the centre and risk a split on the right.

It will help Liberals in Quebec, as it's seen as taking risks to protect a Quebec company and its well-paying jobs (and so agrees the Bloc, wierdly).
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mileslunn
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« Reply #114 on: February 13, 2019, 11:19:01 PM »

With the recent cabinet resignation and bombshell on the SNC-Lavalin meeting it will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the polls.  My guess is it will have a minor impact short-term, but whether it damages the Liberals or not depends on what comes out and how long the issue drags on.  People tend to have short term memories so usually you need a whole series of such scandals to bring down a government.  Nonetheless any negative press close to the election will be what is top of mind.  I also think it depends on who the ballot question is about.  Considering how cynical Canadians are, if on Trudeau its probably bad news for the Liberals since while not hated by any means, he hasn't lived up to the high expectations people had.  But if on Scheer probably good news for Liberals as nothing inspiring about him and plenty of areas you can attack him, mind you he was safer choice than Bernier who would have been a disaster for the Conservatives.

 The Tories will try to frame it as does Trudeau deserve a second term, Liberals is Scheer too extreme and risky to vote for, and NDP neither of the two main parties are working time to try something different.  NDP's main problem is the Liberals have pushed enough leftwards so not a lot of breathing room for them. Tories by contrast do have the potential to appeal to Blue Liberals/Red Tories who are probably not keen on Trudeau's big spending, but the risk is become too centrist and risk the PPC gaining thus splitting the vote so caught in a tight spot.  Go too far right and thus fail to win the key swing voters they need, go too much towards the centre and risk a split on the right.

It will help Liberals in Quebec, as it's seen as taking risks to protect a Quebec company and its well-paying jobs (and so agrees the Bloc, wierdly).

Maybe but adscam really hurt them there.  I tend to think this will cause a short term dip in the polls much like India trip, but unless it drags through the summer the impact in the next general election will be minimal.  Liberal strength in Quebec is more due to NDP collapse, BQ struggling to stay alive, and CPC never except in a few occasions like Mulroney in the 80s being quite weak outside the Quebec City region.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #115 on: February 16, 2019, 10:34:02 PM »

Well it was nice having Ruth Ellen Brosseau in parliament
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RedPrometheus
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« Reply #116 on: February 17, 2019, 08:30:30 AM »

With the recent cabinet resignation and bombshell on the SNC-Lavalin meeting it will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the polls.  My guess is it will have a minor impact short-term, but whether it damages the Liberals or not depends on what comes out and how long the issue drags on.  People tend to have short term memories so usually you need a whole series of such scandals to bring down a government.  Nonetheless any negative press close to the election will be what is top of mind.  I also think it depends on who the ballot question is about.  Considering how cynical Canadians are, if on Trudeau its probably bad news for the Liberals since while not hated by any means, he hasn't lived up to the high expectations people had.  But if on Scheer probably good news for Liberals as nothing inspiring about him and plenty of areas you can attack him, mind you he was safer choice than Bernier who would have been a disaster for the Conservatives.

 The Tories will try to frame it as does Trudeau deserve a second term, Liberals is Scheer too extreme and risky to vote for, and NDP neither of the two main parties are working time to try something different.  NDP's main problem is the Liberals have pushed enough leftwards so not a lot of breathing room for them. Tories by contrast do have the potential to appeal to Blue Liberals/Red Tories who are probably not keen on Trudeau's big spending, but the risk is become too centrist and risk the PPC gaining thus splitting the vote so caught in a tight spot.  Go too far right and thus fail to win the key swing voters they need, go too much towards the centre and risk a split on the right.

It will help Liberals in Quebec, as it's seen as taking risks to protect a Quebec company and its well-paying jobs (and so agrees the Bloc, wierdly).

Maybe but adscam really hurt them there.  I tend to think this will cause a short term dip in the polls much like India trip, but unless it drags through the summer the impact in the next general election will be minimal.  Liberal strength in Quebec is more due to NDP collapse, BQ struggling to stay alive, and CPC never except in a few occasions like Mulroney in the 80s being quite weak outside the Quebec City region.

The PM’s office might have interfered in judicial proceedings and people in Quebec might say that that is great???
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #117 on: February 17, 2019, 09:00:02 AM »

With the recent cabinet resignation and bombshell on the SNC-Lavalin meeting it will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the polls.  My guess is it will have a minor impact short-term, but whether it damages the Liberals or not depends on what comes out and how long the issue drags on.  People tend to have short term memories so usually you need a whole series of such scandals to bring down a government.  Nonetheless any negative press close to the election will be what is top of mind.  I also think it depends on who the ballot question is about.  Considering how cynical Canadians are, if on Trudeau its probably bad news for the Liberals since while not hated by any means, he hasn't lived up to the high expectations people had.  But if on Scheer probably good news for Liberals as nothing inspiring about him and plenty of areas you can attack him, mind you he was safer choice than Bernier who would have been a disaster for the Conservatives.

 The Tories will try to frame it as does Trudeau deserve a second term, Liberals is Scheer too extreme and risky to vote for, and NDP neither of the two main parties are working time to try something different.  NDP's main problem is the Liberals have pushed enough leftwards so not a lot of breathing room for them. Tories by contrast do have the potential to appeal to Blue Liberals/Red Tories who are probably not keen on Trudeau's big spending, but the risk is become too centrist and risk the PPC gaining thus splitting the vote so caught in a tight spot.  Go too far right and thus fail to win the key swing voters they need, go too much towards the centre and risk a split on the right.

It will help Liberals in Quebec, as it's seen as taking risks to protect a Quebec company and its well-paying jobs (and so agrees the Bloc, wierdly).

Maybe but adscam really hurt them there.  I tend to think this will cause a short term dip in the polls much like India trip, but unless it drags through the summer the impact in the next general election will be minimal.  Liberal strength in Quebec is more due to NDP collapse, BQ struggling to stay alive, and CPC never except in a few occasions like Mulroney in the 80s being quite weak outside the Quebec City region.

The PM’s office might have interfered in judicial proceedings and people in Quebec might say that that is great???

The Quebecois are quite protective of their institutions. SNC-Lavalin (the corporation at the centre of all this), is a major employer and one of a handful of major global companies based in Quebec. The expectation is that Quebecois voters will look the other way on the scandal. Punditry seems to confirm this, with Francophone newspapers apparently taking a much more sympathetic approach to the affair than the Anglo media.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #118 on: February 17, 2019, 10:56:02 AM »

With the recent cabinet resignation and bombshell on the SNC-Lavalin meeting it will be interesting to see if this has any impact on the polls.  My guess is it will have a minor impact short-term, but whether it damages the Liberals or not depends on what comes out and how long the issue drags on.  People tend to have short term memories so usually you need a whole series of such scandals to bring down a government.  Nonetheless any negative press close to the election will be what is top of mind.  I also think it depends on who the ballot question is about.  Considering how cynical Canadians are, if on Trudeau its probably bad news for the Liberals since while not hated by any means, he hasn't lived up to the high expectations people had.  But if on Scheer probably good news for Liberals as nothing inspiring about him and plenty of areas you can attack him, mind you he was safer choice than Bernier who would have been a disaster for the Conservatives.

 The Tories will try to frame it as does Trudeau deserve a second term, Liberals is Scheer too extreme and risky to vote for, and NDP neither of the two main parties are working time to try something different.  NDP's main problem is the Liberals have pushed enough leftwards so not a lot of breathing room for them. Tories by contrast do have the potential to appeal to Blue Liberals/Red Tories who are probably not keen on Trudeau's big spending, but the risk is become too centrist and risk the PPC gaining thus splitting the vote so caught in a tight spot.  Go too far right and thus fail to win the key swing voters they need, go too much towards the centre and risk a split on the right.

It will help Liberals in Quebec, as it's seen as taking risks to protect a Quebec company and its well-paying jobs (and so agrees the Bloc, wierdly).

Maybe but adscam really hurt them there.  I tend to think this will cause a short term dip in the polls much like India trip, but unless it drags through the summer the impact in the next general election will be minimal.  Liberal strength in Quebec is more due to NDP collapse, BQ struggling to stay alive, and CPC never except in a few occasions like Mulroney in the 80s being quite weak outside the Quebec City region.

The PM’s office might have interfered in judicial proceedings and people in Quebec might say that that is great???

Yes, the view here is than some Ontarians/Anglophone high-ranking public servants in Justice Ministry and Ontarian newspapers are teaming up to destroy a Quebec company.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #119 on: February 17, 2019, 01:12:22 PM »

First post scandal poll is out from Campaign Research

Conservative: 37%
Liberal: 32%
NDP: 14%
Green: 7%
Bloc: 5%
People's: 3%

Large change from pre-scandal polling but not a major shift from the last Campaign Research poll, which had the Liberals and Tories statistically tied.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #120 on: February 18, 2019, 01:22:44 AM »

Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #121 on: February 18, 2019, 05:51:22 AM »

Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.

NDP voters made a serious miscalculation. I know they wanted someone to outcharisma Trudeau but it's the Liberals. Something like this was bound to happen eventually.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #122 on: February 18, 2019, 11:57:05 AM »

Ah sh-t.

There's an argument to be made that this is all the NDP's fault for bucking Tom Mulcair. He'd be ravaging the government on the daily in Question Period and come off like a reasonable, responsible, progressive leader. Instead there's bumbling Singh who has a snowflake's chance in Hell of presenting the NDP as a reasonable alternative to the Liberals.

But I digress.

NDP voters made a serious miscalculation. I know they wanted someone to outcharisma Trudeau but it's the Liberals. Something like this was bound to happen eventually.

The Conservatives are even more corrupt, they're just more brazen about it and they have most of the media on their side.

For instance, CBC did a series of stories about a decade ago on how the Conservatives helped the pipeline industry cover up oil spills, but outside of the CBC, it was never reported on.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #123 on: February 18, 2019, 12:02:45 PM »

First post scandal poll is out from Campaign Research

Conservative: 37%
Liberal: 32%
NDP: 14%
Green: 7%
Bloc: 5%
People's: 3%

Large change from pre-scandal polling but not a major shift from the last Campaign Research poll, which had the Liberals and Tories statistically tied.

Could be accurate but this is Nick Kouvalis' firm.
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« Reply #124 on: February 18, 2019, 06:12:34 PM »

He's really going to do it. He's really going to lose. Unbelievable.
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