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August 23, 2019, 03:09:38 pm
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adma
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« Reply #675 on: August 14, 2019, 06:03:56 am »

Also, in 1988, the messy collapse of the provincial NDP government in Manitoba adversely affected the party's federal results, with two of their longtime central Winnipeg strongholds falling to the Liberals.  (Which brings us to an inverse matter: that of the federal Liberals in 1988 being *boosted* by popular provincial parties--Carstairs-mania in Winnipeg, and the Peterson government in Ontario, especially)


Speaking of 1988, the PCs were damaged by unpopular provincial governments in Saskatchewan and (in Socred guise) BC--and in both cases, the federal NDP gains reflected their provincial status as OO and governments-in-waiting...
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lilTommy
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« Reply #676 on: August 14, 2019, 06:18:11 am »

It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

Quote
The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287

I wonder what seats Bernier sees as the most winnable for the PPC. Maybe some of the former Tory MPs? I don't think anybody else has a chance at winning aside from Bernier, but maybe some can hit 10% of the vote, which would be doubtful for debate qualification.

Steven Fletcher's riding? He could potentially get 10-15%.

Possibly Etobicoke North with Renata Ford, She could pull a good solid chunk of that Ford nation vote, likely not much more then 25% though, eh?
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« Reply #677 on: August 14, 2019, 07:25:15 am »

Could the PPC inherit the Wildrose Party. Voters in Alberta?
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beesley
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« Reply #678 on: August 14, 2019, 08:57:14 am »

Could the PPC inherit the Wildrose Party. Voters in Alberta?

Probably more likely to get voters who voted for the Freedom Conservative Party this year.
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The Saint
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« Reply #679 on: August 14, 2019, 08:58:28 am »

What's a rough estimate on where PPC stands now?  Polls seem to be all over from a low of 1% to a max of 5%.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #680 on: August 14, 2019, 09:08:54 am »

What's a rough estimate on where PPC stands now?  Polls seem to be all over from a low of 1% to a max of 5%.

Polling averages have them around 3% or so.
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cp
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« Reply #681 on: August 14, 2019, 11:34:24 am »
« Edited: August 14, 2019, 11:43:15 am by cp »


A poor performance for the federal Conservatives would not endanger Ford's rule of the provincial party, correct? It doesn't seem like 2008 or 2011 reflected badly on McGuinty at all, or like federal politics impacts provincial politics this way in other provinces.

Actually there is a long history of unpopular provincial governments costing their federal cousins votes and seats in Canadian elections. In 1979 the extreme unpopularity of the rightwing Manitoba PC government under Sterling Lyon cost the federal PCs several seats and could have been the difference between the Joe Clark government surviving or losing power.

In 1997, the Nova Scotia Liberals were extremely unpopular - the federal Liberals went from holding all 11 federal seats in NS to holding zero of them!

In 1974, 1997 and 2000 the federal NDP suffered heavy losses in BC because of the unpopularity of the BC NDP governments in those times.

The backlash against Mike Harris is widely seen as having contributed to the Liberals under Chretien sweeping Ontario in 1997 and 2000.

A backlash against Dalton McGuinty is seen as having cost the federal Liberals a lot of seats in Ontario in 2004 and 2006 and 2008  

Yes, I know that provincial government popularity or lack thereof often affects federal results in Canada. (While the reverse seems to happen somewhat less often and not be as strong). My question was whether a federal election result had ever brought down a provincial premier? Like, let's say there are large Conservative gains in every province but large losses in Ontario, and as a result Trudeau is reelected with a bare minority government. Would there be pressure on Ford to step aside? And has anything like that happened before?

As best as I can figure, the answer is no.

The only example I can think of doesn't really point to a clear causative relationship between the federal election *on its own* and a provincial election in which an incumbent loses. I'm thinking of the 1993 federal election and the subsequent 1994 Quebec provincial election.

The 1993 federal election saw the Liberals returned to power with a majority. But in Quebec the Bloc Quebecois won 54/75 seats. The following year the incumbent Quebec Liberal government was defeated by a resurgent Parti Quebecois (leading to the 1995 referendum).

On the face of it, you can make a case for the 1993 election contributing to the poor performance of the PLQ in 1994: the BQ surged ahead, the Liberals in the province were reduced to a rump. In reality, though, Robert Bourassa's (provincial) administration had been beset by problems for years. The 1993 election didn't cause the PLQ's collapse so much as it foretold what was already quite apparent.


Still, this provides some useful perspective on what may happen to Ford. If his premiership continues to lurch from problem to problem every month it will be harder for him to shake off any criticism he might face for ostensibly undermining the federal Tories this year. His subsequent defeat might not be *caused* by resentment over a disappointing Scheer performance, but it probably won't help things.
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DL
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« Reply #682 on: August 14, 2019, 11:57:35 am »

If the federal Tories have a really disappointing performance in Ontario and its interpreted as being largely due to a backlash against Doug Ford - it will not in and of itself cause a revolt against his leadership. First of all there really is no mechanism for the Ontario PCs to ditch him while he is premier. The only way would be if the entire cabinet resigned and threatened to vote non-confidence in him and force a snap election...very unlikely.

Now if the Tories not only do badly in the federal election but they also continue to poll very badly and maybe get crushed in some byelections - it will cause more and more discontent - and if Doug Ford was a more conventional politician with some loyalty to his party - he might take a walk in the snow and resign so his party has a better chance of winning in 2022 under a new leader. But Ford is none of those things. he is like Trump in that he doesnt give a damn about his party - its all about him. If he can't be leader than he really doesnt care about whether the next Premier is some PC hack or Andrea Horwath!

I predict that no matter how much unrest there is - Ford would act like Greg Selinger and dig in his heels and absolutely refuse to go and would insist on leading the Tories in 2022 - damn the torpedoes.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #683 on: August 14, 2019, 12:23:06 pm »

If the federal Tories have a really disappointing performance in Ontario and its interpreted as being largely due to a backlash against Doug Ford - it will not in and of itself cause a revolt against his leadership. First of all there really is no mechanism for the Ontario PCs to ditch him while he is premier. The only way would be if the entire cabinet resigned and threatened to vote non-confidence in him and force a snap election...very unlikely.

Now if the Tories not only do badly in the federal election but they also continue to poll very badly and maybe get crushed in some byelections - it will cause more and more discontent - and if Doug Ford was a more conventional politician with some loyalty to his party - he might take a walk in the snow and resign so his party has a better chance of winning in 2022 under a new leader. But Ford is none of those things. he is like Trump in that he doesnt give a damn about his party - its all about him. If he can't be leader than he really doesnt care about whether the next Premier is some PC hack or Andrea Horwath!

I predict that no matter how much unrest there is - Ford would act like Greg Selinger and dig in his heels and absolutely refuse to go and would insist on leading the Tories in 2022 - damn the torpedoes.

Unless Scheer resigns as Ford with his big ego I could see running federally.  The guy really has no sense of reality and in fact while the boos at the Raptors victory parade were not a shock to most, they were to him suggesting he was disconnected how unpopular.

Nonetheless you are right, despite unpopularity, often leaders stay on.  It was pretty obvious with both Wynne and Selinger they were going to lose, yet both insisted on staying on so lots of leaders out there don't know when to quit.  Heck even with Harper it was pretty clear he was not going to win a majority in 2015 and that if he fell short of a majority, the Liberals and NDP would gang up to defeat him on the throne speech, but he still stayed on thinking he could somehow pull off a majority or the supply and confidence between NDP and Liberals would never materialize.
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DL
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« Reply #684 on: August 14, 2019, 02:08:34 pm »

Ford he would have to be even more delusional than rumoured to think he could ever be federal Tory leader. If Scheer loses it will be largely because of Ford's extreme unpopularity in Ontario - so how much of a death wish would federal Tories have to be to pick as their federal leader the man whose incompetence and unpopularity were singularly responsible for them losing the election...Even if Ford were popular - the fact he is the guys speaks ZERO French and Quebec ridings get a weighted 24% of the vote in a CPC leadership contest.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #685 on: August 14, 2019, 02:12:57 pm »

Ford he would have to be even more delusional than rumoured to think he could ever be federal Tory leader. If Scheer loses it will be largely because of Ford's extreme unpopularity in Ontario - so how much of a death wish would federal Tories have to be to pick as their federal leader the man whose incompetence and unpopularity were singularly responsible for them losing the election...Even if Ford were popular - the fact he is the guys speaks ZERO French and Quebec ridings get a weighted 24% of the vote in a CPC leadership contest.

He wouldn't win, but he is so delusional he may believe he can.
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« Reply #686 on: August 14, 2019, 02:35:08 pm »

If the federal Tories have a really disappointing performance in Ontario and its interpreted as being largely due to a backlash against Doug Ford - it will not in and of itself cause a revolt against his leadership. First of all there really is no mechanism for the Ontario PCs to ditch him while he is premier. The only way would be if the entire cabinet resigned and threatened to vote non-confidence in him and force a snap election...very unlikely.

Now if the Tories not only do badly in the federal election but they also continue to poll very badly and maybe get crushed in some byelections - it will cause more and more discontent - and if Doug Ford was a more conventional politician with some loyalty to his party - he might take a walk in the snow and resign so his party has a better chance of winning in 2022 under a new leader. But Ford is none of those things. he is like Trump in that he doesnt give a damn about his party - its all about him. If he can't be leader than he really doesnt care about whether the next Premier is some PC hack or Andrea Horwath!

I predict that no matter how much unrest there is - Ford would act like Greg Selinger and dig in his heels and absolutely refuse to go and would insist on leading the Tories in 2022 - damn the torpedoes.

At least Selinger had the good grace (or was forced to?) hold a leadership election, even if he was a candidate in it.

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« Reply #687 on: August 14, 2019, 02:37:57 pm »

It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

Quote
The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287

This is absolutely ridiculous to me. Most of these sites rely on past election results to do their projections. How can they be of any use in the case for a new party? I suppose they can pull numbers out of their a**es to boost candidate numbers for people like Renata Ford or Steven Fletcher, or they might try to some regression analysis based on demographics, but I doubt any of them are doing that.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #688 on: August 14, 2019, 02:56:57 pm »

It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

Quote
The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287

This is absolutely ridiculous to me. Most of these sites rely on past election results to do their projections. How can they be of any use in the case for a new party? I suppose they can pull numbers out of their a**es to boost candidate numbers for people like Renata Ford or Steven Fletcher, or they might try to some regression analysis based on demographics, but I doubt any of them are doing that.

I guess some regional crosstabs or a riding poll could do it, but I agree it's completely ridiculous. Especially with past precedent; May was in a similar boat in 2008 and they still let her into the debates.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #689 on: August 14, 2019, 03:37:12 pm »

If Bernier were included, the question is who would it benefit and who would it harm.  I think it could go two ways:

1.  Bernier performs well and eats into Conservative vote thus creating vote splits to help the Liberals win

2.  Bernier looks like a total nutcase making Scheer appear quite moderate thus Liberal attacks that Scheer is too extreme ring hollow and Scheer is able to win over some of the Blue Liberal/Red Tory voters who are upset with Trudeau but weary of Scheer.

So really it could benefit or hurt either of the two main parties.  He is not a greater debater in English, but he doesn't come across as crazy.  However if you check the twitter feeds of most of his candidates, his party is full of pretty much every right wing nutbar you can fine.  Part of that could be vetting as party doesn't have the tools to vet as well, but also his dog whistles do seem to appeal to that demographic.  In addition perhaps the fact his party has zero chance at winning, candidates are less restrained whereas with more serious parties, candidates know a dumb comment on twitter can hurt them and party nationally so they don't put out whatever comes to their mind.
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beesley
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« Reply #690 on: August 14, 2019, 04:23:09 pm »

It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

Quote
The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287

This is absolutely ridiculous to me. Most of these sites rely on past election results to do their projections. How can they be of any use in the case for a new party? I suppose they can pull numbers out of their a**es to boost candidate numbers for people like Renata Ford or Steven Fletcher, or they might try to some regression analysis based on demographics, but I doubt any of them are doing that.

Very few sites seem to have beauce as competitive, but lots have it one way or the other, so they really are just making it up.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #691 on: August 14, 2019, 05:47:40 pm »

It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

Quote
The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287

This is absolutely ridiculous to me. Most of these sites rely on past election results to do their projections. How can they be of any use in the case for a new party? I suppose they can pull numbers out of their a**es to boost candidate numbers for people like Renata Ford or Steven Fletcher, or they might try to some regression analysis based on demographics, but I doubt any of them are doing that.

Very few sites seem to have beauce as competitive, but lots have it one way or the other, so they really are just making it up.

Mainstreet research showed PPC and CPC tied in Beauce, but with riding polls not having a great track record, tough to know.  Beyond that one, I don't expect them to win elsewhere.  Cornelius Chisu was an unknown backbencher so don't expect him to have any impact and Gurmant Grewal was over a decade ago and riding has changed a lot since so doubt he will have much impact either.  Steven Fletcher won't win, but he may create strong enough splits to allow the Liberals to hold the riding as right now I have that one leaning Tory, but local factor could save Liberals.  For Renata Ford, she will probably have one of the better showings, but considering how poorly the Tories normally do here, I expect Kirsty Duncan to hold the riding without too much difficulty.
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adma
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« Reply #692 on: August 14, 2019, 05:52:12 pm »


Nonetheless you are right, despite unpopularity, often leaders stay on.  It was pretty obvious with both Wynne and Selinger they were going to lose, yet both insisted on staying on so lots of leaders out there don't know when to quit.  Heck even with Harper it was pretty clear he was not going to win a majority in 2015 and that if he fell short of a majority, the Liberals and NDP would gang up to defeat him on the throne speech, but he still stayed on thinking he could somehow pull off a majority or the supply and confidence between NDP and Liberals would never materialize.

I actually don't know how clear it was to Harper--I think the federal Cons were counting on the added seats through redistribution, a massive fundraising advantage, the Liberals as a depleted third party force under a lightweight leader and the NDP being the NDP.  And, maybe, the extended writ period as an opportunity to wear the opposition down, so to speak.  They really thought they could "fix" the election to their advantage...
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adma
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« Reply #693 on: August 14, 2019, 05:55:00 pm »

Mainstreet research showed PPC and CPC tied in Beauce, but with riding polls not having a great track record, tough to know.  Beyond that one, I don't expect them to win elsewhere.  Cornelius Chisu was an unknown backbencher so don't expect him to have any impact and Gurmant Grewal was over a decade ago and riding has changed a lot since so doubt he will have much impact either.  Steven Fletcher won't win, but he may create strong enough splits to allow the Liberals to hold the riding as right now I have that one leaning Tory, but local factor could save Liberals.  For Renata Ford, she will probably have one of the better showings, but considering how poorly the Tories normally do here, I expect Kirsty Duncan to hold the riding without too much difficulty.

I'm also wondering whether they're setting sights on New Brundwick, in light of NB's Confederation of Regions/People's Alliance tradition of dissident forces on the right...
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mileslunn
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« Reply #694 on: August 14, 2019, 10:17:51 pm »


Nonetheless you are right, despite unpopularity, often leaders stay on.  It was pretty obvious with both Wynne and Selinger they were going to lose, yet both insisted on staying on so lots of leaders out there don't know when to quit.  Heck even with Harper it was pretty clear he was not going to win a majority in 2015 and that if he fell short of a majority, the Liberals and NDP would gang up to defeat him on the throne speech, but he still stayed on thinking he could somehow pull off a majority or the supply and confidence between NDP and Liberals would never materialize.

I actually don't know how clear it was to Harper--I think the federal Cons were counting on the added seats through redistribution, a massive fundraising advantage, the Liberals as a depleted third party force under a lightweight leader and the NDP being the NDP.  And, maybe, the extended writ period as an opportunity to wear the opposition down, so to speak.  They really thought they could "fix" the election to their advantage...

Could be quite right, but it was obvious to me even with those there was no path to a majority for the Tories.  I still saw a minority as feasible, but I know if that happened NDP and Liberals would gang up on throne speech to vote him out just as you saw in BC.
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« Reply #695 on: August 14, 2019, 11:06:02 pm »


Nonetheless you are right, despite unpopularity, often leaders stay on.  It was pretty obvious with both Wynne and Selinger they were going to lose, yet both insisted on staying on so lots of leaders out there don't know when to quit.  Heck even with Harper it was pretty clear he was not going to win a majority in 2015 and that if he fell short of a majority, the Liberals and NDP would gang up to defeat him on the throne speech, but he still stayed on thinking he could somehow pull off a majority or the supply and confidence between NDP and Liberals would never materialize.

I actually don't know how clear it was to Harper--I think the federal Cons were counting on the added seats through redistribution, a massive fundraising advantage, the Liberals as a depleted third party force under a lightweight leader and the NDP being the NDP.  And, maybe, the extended writ period as an opportunity to wear the opposition down, so to speak.  They really thought they could "fix" the election to their advantage...

Could be quite right, but it was obvious to me even with those there was no path to a majority for the Tories.  I still saw a minority as feasible, but I know if that happened NDP and Liberals would gang up on throne speech to vote him out just as you saw in BC.

What would have happened if NDP and Liberals won same amount of seats in 2015?
Or one party won more voters but won less seats?

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mileslunn
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« Reply #696 on: August 14, 2019, 11:26:51 pm »


Nonetheless you are right, despite unpopularity, often leaders stay on.  It was pretty obvious with both Wynne and Selinger they were going to lose, yet both insisted on staying on so lots of leaders out there don't know when to quit.  Heck even with Harper it was pretty clear he was not going to win a majority in 2015 and that if he fell short of a majority, the Liberals and NDP would gang up to defeat him on the throne speech, but he still stayed on thinking he could somehow pull off a majority or the supply and confidence between NDP and Liberals would never materialize.

I actually don't know how clear it was to Harper--I think the federal Cons were counting on the added seats through redistribution, a massive fundraising advantage, the Liberals as a depleted third party force under a lightweight leader and the NDP being the NDP.  And, maybe, the extended writ period as an opportunity to wear the opposition down, so to speak.  They really thought they could "fix" the election to their advantage...

Could be quite right, but it was obvious to me even with those there was no path to a majority for the Tories.  I still saw a minority as feasible, but I know if that happened NDP and Liberals would gang up on throne speech to vote him out just as you saw in BC.

What would have happened if NDP and Liberals won same amount of seats in 2015?
Or one party won more voters but won less seats?

Probably another election or perhaps who won more votes.
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« Reply #697 on: August 14, 2019, 11:52:50 pm »

Jagmeet Singh has a better chance of being the next PM than Bernier does of losing Beauce.
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« Reply #698 on: August 15, 2019, 12:13:33 am »

Jagmeet Singh has a better chance of being the next PM than Bernier does of losing Beauce.

I am not so sure, Bernier has some popularity, but more vote on party than individual candidate.  Never mind Beauce has more dairy farmers than any other riding so his stance on supply management won't help, whereas in past he keep quiet on that as he was a cabinet minister and had to support party policy on that.
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« Reply #699 on: August 15, 2019, 10:10:30 am »

Jagmeet Singh has a better chance of being the next PM than Bernier does of losing Beauce.

I like those odds!
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