Canadian Election 2019

[xelas81]

This is an absolute masterpiece in banality:

It sounds like it is suppose to attack Trudeau for being too moderate. It doesn't make much sense for Tories to attack Trudeau in this way, unless they realized that they pretty much maxed out their support, and only path to win a majority is to split the non-tory vote. But I don't think that is the case here though.

[xelas81]

The provincial breakdowns on the latest Nanos on the Numbers aren't out yet. Of course all the numbers are within the margin of error, but the Liberals are now back into essentially a tie: 32.5% to 32.8% for the Conservatives.  This is +2.2% for the Liberals and -1.2% for the Conservatives from last week.

Of course there are a number of possibilities, the unpopularity of the Doug Ford Conservatives, the SNC Scandal being further in the rear view mirror...  but, I like to think the main reason is the reaction to AGW.

For much of the first decade of the 21st century belief in whether AGW was real or not depended on the time of year: during the summer more people 'believed', and during the winter months less people believed.  

I suspect this will be the same thing with the carbon tax.  The only recent poll on this had 40% in favor of the carbon tax and 47% opposed.  As we get in to the summer months, I think people will recognize more and more that they are paying for global warming whether they pay a carbon tax or not and this will result in support for the carbon tax to increase.  Then this support will decline again as we move further away from summer.

So, where all this is leading to, is I'd suggest the Liberals move the election date up a couple weeks from October 21st so that memories of the very likely long, hot summer are fresher.

Not sure if increased emphasis on environment/global warning would help Liberals. IMO it seems more likely Liberals would bleed more support to the NDP/Greens than gain voters from Tories. Especially considering that most Tories don't believe in AGW.

[xelas81]

Nonetheless you are right, despite unpopularity, often leaders stay on.  It was pretty obvious with both Wynne and Selinger they were going to lose, yet both insisted on staying on so lots of leaders out there don't know when to quit.  Heck even with Harper it was pretty clear he was not going to win a majority in 2015 and that if he fell short of a majority, the Liberals and NDP would gang up to defeat him on the throne speech, but he still stayed on thinking he could somehow pull off a majority or the supply and confidence between NDP and Liberals would never materialize.

I actually don't know how clear it was to Harper--I think the federal Cons were counting on the added seats through redistribution, a massive fundraising advantage, the Liberals as a depleted third party force under a lightweight leader and the NDP being the NDP.  And, maybe, the extended writ period as an opportunity to wear the opposition down, so to speak.  They really thought they could "fix" the election to their advantage...

Could be quite right, but it was obvious to me even with those there was no path to a majority for the Tories.  I still saw a minority as feasible, but I know if that happened NDP and Liberals would gang up on throne speech to vote him out just as you saw in BC.

What would have happened if NDP and Liberals won same amount of seats in 2015?
Or one party won more voters but won less seats?

[xelas81]

TVA network will have a debate in French October 2 with four leaders. May and Bernier were not invited. Doesn't seem like Trudeau will go to Maclean's or Munk debates.   

At the moment the schedule and attendees looks like this

September 12 Maclean's and Citytv
Scheer, Singh, May

Munk debate on foreign policy October 1
Scheer, Singh, May

TVA October 2
Trudeau, Scheer, Singh, Blanchet

Leaders' debates commission (English) October 7
Trudeau, Scheer, Singh, Blanchet, May

Leaders' debates commission (French) October 10
Trudeau, Scheer, Singh, Blanchet, May

Who is Blanchet?

[xelas81]

It's hard to claim that winning 34% gives the CPC a mandate to govern in the way winning 48% would, especially since the LPC is obviously the Condorcet winner. Still, the Trudeau government itself has zero democratic legitimacy left, either. There's simply no winner to this election under the current rules.

What?
On the Pure PR system most likely outcome would be Liberal minority.
To be fair NDP would have more seats and have bigger leverage but it is not enough to change who became the PM.

[xelas81]

Did the Conservatives a plurality of the vote among any minority group?  Might have taken the Chinese Canadian vote, though the Liberals were also competitive with them.

Is the Korean Canadian vote more or less Tory than Chinese Canadian vote?