PEI Provincial election 2019

[beesley]

Very tragic news.

The law requires that the election in Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park will be postponed, similar to what happened in Thirsk and Malton in 2010.

[the506]

Elections PEI has confirmed the postponement, but the MMP referendum will still go on as scheduled in that riding on Tuesday.

[beesley]

My prediction based on recent polling.

1   Souris-Elmira   PC Hold 2   Georgetown-Pownal   PC Hold 3   Montague-Kilmuir   Liberal Hold (closest seat of the night) 4   Belfast-Murray River   PC Hold 5   Mermaid-Stratford   PC Gain from Liberal 6   Stratford-Keppoch   PC Hold 7   Morell-Donagh   PC Hold 8   Stanhope-Marshfield   Liberal Hold 9   Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park   Green Gain from Liberal 10   Charlottetown-Winsloe   Green Gain from Liberal 11   Charlottetown-Belvedere   Green Hold/Gain from Liberal 12   Charlottetown-Victoria   Green Gain from Liberal 13   Charlottetown-Brighton   Green Gain from Liberal 14   Charlottetown-West Royalty   Green Gain from Liberal 15   Brackley-Hunter River    Green Gain from Liberal 16   Cornwall-Meadowbank   Green Gain from Liberal 17   New Haven-Rocky Point   Green Hold 18   Rustico-Emerald   Green Gain from PC 19   Borden-Kinkora   Green Gain from PC 20   Kensington-Malpeque   PC Hold 21   Summerside-Wilmot   PC Hold 22   Summerside-South Drive   Green Gain from Liberal 23   Tyne Valley-Sherbrooke   Green Gain from Liberal 24   Evangeline-Miscouche   Liberal Hold 25   O'Leary-Inverness   Liberal Hold 26   Alberton-Bloomfield   Liberal Hold 27   Tignish-Palmer Road   Liberal Hold

Green 13
PC 8
Liberal 6

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Thoughts on whether the MMP referendum will pass? It needs a majority in 60% of seats.

I’ll be changing my avatar from its usual D-PE so as not to confuse folks. I’m not from PEI, nor have I ever visited.

[Hatman 🍁]

it will probably fail, these things often do. I wonder though if it gets 50% of the popular vote (but not the 60% of seats), and the Greens win, do they go ahead with it anyway? I think I remember hearing they would "respect the outcome" of the referendum, though.

[mileslunn]

I think most likely outcome is Green win, question is will it be a majority or is their vote inefficient due to huge margins in Charlottetown so only minority.  Also the death of one candidate might create some sympathy votes too.  The PCs will probably form official opposition although with the recent history of polls generally underestimating parties on the right, I would not be shocked if PCs do win.  Not the favourites, but I think a PC win is more likely than a Liberal win.  While anything is possible, I think the Liberals are probably in the worst shape of the three main parties.

[Harlow]

I think most likely outcome is Green win, question is will it be a majority or is their vote inefficient due to huge margins in Charlottetown so only minority.

FWIW the Mainstreet poll had their Charlottetown numbers only a few points higher than their numbers in the rest of the province.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Forum: PC 35.4% Greens 34.4% Liberals 25.7% NDP 4.6%

Forum seat projection model is 13 PC 10 Green 3 Liberal

MMP failing 47.1% to 52.9%

[mileslunn]

Forum: PC 35.4% Greens 34.4% Liberals 25.7% NDP 4.6%

Forum seat projection model is 13 PC 10 Green 3 Liberal

MMP failing 47.1% to 52.9%

While I tend to dismiss their polls in between elections, their track record for last minute polls is pretty good.  They were closest in Alberta election.  Never mind it does seem parties on the right have a tendency to do better than polls suggests so a PC majority would not be a huge shocker.  Its not what I predict, but wouldn't be shocked if it happens.  A Liberal majority however would be a shocker.

[beesley]

Forum: PC 35.4% Greens 34.4% Liberals 25.7% NDP 4.6%

Forum seat projection model is 13 PC 10 Green 3 Liberal

MMP failing 47.1% to 52.9%

While I tend to dismiss their polls in between elections, their track record for last minute polls is pretty good.  They were closest in Alberta election.  Never mind it does seem parties on the right have a tendency to do better than polls suggests so a PC majority would not be a huge shocker.  Its not what I predict, but wouldn't be shocked if it happens.  A Liberal majority however would be a shocker.

Interesting, as the Liberals can't form a government, would Maclauchlan recommend that Peter Bevan-Baker forms a government even if Dennis King won more seats, and vice versa?

[DC Al Fine]

Forum: PC 35.4% Greens 34.4% Liberals 25.7% NDP 4.6%

Forum seat projection model is 13 PC 10 Green 3 Liberal

MMP failing 47.1% to 52.9%

While I tend to dismiss their polls in between elections, their track record for last minute polls is pretty good.  They were closest in Alberta election.  Never mind it does seem parties on the right have a tendency to do better than polls suggests so a PC majority would not be a huge shocker.  Its not what I predict, but wouldn't be shocked if it happens.  A Liberal majority however would be a shocker.

Interesting, as the Liberals can't form a government, would Maclauchlan recommend that Peter Bevan-Baker forms a government even if Dennis King won more seats, and vice versa?

No. Popular vote means jack in FPTP.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm not going to do a seat by seat prediction since local factors always play such an outsized role, but here is my overall prediction:

Green: 33%, 9 seats
Tory: 33%, 9 seats
Liberal: 32%, 9 seats
NDP/Indy: 2%, 0 seats

Totally arbitrary, I know.

[jaichind]

When do the polls close ?

[DC Al Fine]

When do the polls close ?

7pm Atlantic Time

[DistingFlyer]

Not at all sure about this one; Green victory still the most likely outcome but it looks like the Tories may be getting a last-minute lift (probably a combination of blue Liberals coming over to stop the Greens, and some new Green voters wavering at the last.)

Redistribution and the rise of a third party into contention for government tend to make MLA forecasts a little more of a gamble, but that's one of the things this site's for, so I might as well make a guess of my own:

GP 13 (36%)
PC 9 (34%)
Lib 4 (25%)

As for the PR vote, this is the question that means the most to me tonight; I staunchly oppose PR (my dream is for Aussie-style preferential, though I know it's very unlikely), and am always very frustrated by the poor arguments that its opponents always make to counter the (what I consider to be) misleading claims by its supporters. I even wrote my MP a frustrated letter a couple years ago on the subject. The PR side has led in most polls, but generally by modest margins, and since this question tends to poll better than it actually performs in the ballot box (just look at BC last fall - a huge relief to me), I think it will probably lose narrowly. A lot will depend on how the parties do, however: if Greens are getting out to vote in good numbers out of enthusiasm for a possible government, that could tip things the other way.

Will be watching both items with great interest, but it's the second that will have me digging my fingernails into the furniture. PEI does tend to count its votes fast, though (probably even faster with the big advance turnout), so we should have our answers soon.

As for the byelection, I suspect it will go with the government (whoever that is), unless the winners end up with 13 MLAs tonight - then you might have the opposition waging a successful campaign to 'Keep the Government in check.' Again, we shall see.

[_]

I'm going to go for broke on this one, here's my guess for what the results will be at the end tonight

Green Majority Government

Green:  35.2%, 15 Seats
Tories:  30.9%, 7 Seats
Liberals:  27.2, 4 Seats
NDP: 4.9%, 0 Seats

If I had to guess I'd say MMP gets over 55% and passes.

[beesley]

Forum: PC 35.4% Greens 34.4% Liberals 25.7% NDP 4.6%

Forum seat projection model is 13 PC 10 Green 3 Liberal

MMP failing 47.1% to 52.9%

While I tend to dismiss their polls in between elections, their track record for last minute polls is pretty good.  They were closest in Alberta election.  Never mind it does seem parties on the right have a tendency to do better than polls suggests so a PC majority would not be a huge shocker.  Its not what I predict, but wouldn't be shocked if it happens.  A Liberal majority however would be a shocker.

Interesting, as the Liberals can't form a government, would Maclauchlan recommend that Peter Bevan-Baker forms a government even if Dennis King won more seats, and vice versa?

No. Popular vote means jack in FPTP.

I'm fully aware of that, I come from the UK after all, but I was referring to which party his caucus would rather work with, if they are in the kingmaker position.

[beesley]

Final prediction:

1   Souris-Elmira   PC Hold 2   Georgetown-Pownal   PC Hold 3   Montague-Kilmuir   PC Gain from Liberal 4   Belfast-Murray River   PC Hold 5   Mermaid-Stratford   PC Gain from Liberal 6   Stratford-Keppoch   PC Hold 7   Morell-Donagh   PC Hold 8   Stanhope-Marshfield   Liberal Hold 9   Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park   Green Gain from Liberal 10   Charlottetown-Winsloe   Green Gain from Liberal 11   Charlottetown-Belvedere   Green Hold/Gain from Liberal 12   Charlottetown-Victoria   Green Gain from Liberal 13   Charlottetown-Brighton   Green Gain from Liberal 14   Charlottetown-West Royalty   Green Gain from Liberal 15   Brackley-Hunter River    Green Gain from Liberal 16   Cornwall-Meadowbank   Green Gain from Liberal 17   New Haven-Rocky Point   Green Hold 18   Rustico-Emerald    PC Hold 19   Borden-Kinkora   Green Gain from PC 20   Kensington-Malpeque   PC Hold 21   Summerside-Wilmot   PC Hold 22   Summerside-South Drive   Green Gain from Liberal 23   Tyne Valley-Sherbrooke   Green Gain from Liberal 24   Evangeline-Miscouche   Liberal Hold 25   O'Leary-Inverness   Liberal Hold 26   Alberton-Bloomfield   Liberal Hold 27   Tignish-Palmer Road   Liberal Hold

Green 12
PC 10
Liberal 5

[_]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/unspecified-threat-at-p-e-i-polling-location-prompts-pause-in-voting-1.4390479

[DC Al Fine]

Forum: PC 35.4% Greens 34.4% Liberals 25.7% NDP 4.6%

Forum seat projection model is 13 PC 10 Green 3 Liberal

MMP failing 47.1% to 52.9%

While I tend to dismiss their polls in between elections, their track record for last minute polls is pretty good.  They were closest in Alberta election.  Never mind it does seem parties on the right have a tendency to do better than polls suggests so a PC majority would not be a huge shocker.  Its not what I predict, but wouldn't be shocked if it happens.  A Liberal majority however would be a shocker.

Interesting, as the Liberals can't form a government, would Maclauchlan recommend that Peter Bevan-Baker forms a government even if Dennis King won more seats, and vice versa?

No. Popular vote means jack in FPTP.

I'm fully aware of that, I come from the UK after all, but I was referring to which party his caucus would rather work with, if they are in the kingmaker position.

Oh you mean if the Liberals come third?

Examples in the rest of Canada would indicate that the Liberals would prefer the Greens as an anti-Conservative voice, but a Green party forming government is totally unprecedented, and its hard to use national politics as precedent in a place as small and unpolarized as PEI. In short, I have no idea

Also, the likelihood of coalitions and pseudo-coalitions (like in BC and New Brunswick) seems to be massively over estimated by journalists and political junkies. If we get a minority government, I would still expect that the most likely outcome would be the government securing support for its agenda on a case by case basis and an election within two years.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Here’s my prediction:

Greens: 36%
PC: 32%
Liberal: 26.5%
NDP: 3.5%
Others: 2%

Not going to try to guess the number of seats.

[beesley]

Forum: PC 35.4% Greens 34.4% Liberals 25.7% NDP 4.6%

Forum seat projection model is 13 PC 10 Green 3 Liberal

MMP failing 47.1% to 52.9%

While I tend to dismiss their polls in between elections, their track record for last minute polls is pretty good.  They were closest in Alberta election.  Never mind it does seem parties on the right have a tendency to do better than polls suggests so a PC majority would not be a huge shocker.  Its not what I predict, but wouldn't be shocked if it happens.  A Liberal majority however would be a shocker.

Interesting, as the Liberals can't form a government, would Maclauchlan recommend that Peter Bevan-Baker forms a government even if Dennis King won more seats, and vice versa?

No. Popular vote means jack in FPTP.

I'm fully aware of that, I come from the UK after all, but I was referring to which party his caucus would rather work with, if they are in the kingmaker position.

Oh you mean if the Liberals come third?

Examples in the rest of Canada would indicate that the Liberals would prefer the Greens as an anti-Conservative voice, but a Green party forming government is totally unprecedented, and its hard to use national politics as precedent in a place as small and unpolarized as PEI. In short, I have no idea

Also, the likelihood of coalitions and pseudo-coalitions (like in BC and New Brunswick) seems to be massively over estimated by journalists and political junkies. If we get a minority government, I would still expect that the most likely outcome would be the government securing support for its agenda on a case by case basis and an election within two years.

You got it! The Liberals coming third seems to be quite likely. I wonder if the fact that the PEI Liberals are affiliated with the federal Grits will affect anything. As I'm not Canadian but happen to know New Brunswick well, a confidence/pseudo-coalition government perhaps seems more real.

[brucejoel99]

Here's my overall final prediction: a Green majority government with the PC's retaining its official opposition status (based on precedent).

Greens: 36.4% - 16 (5, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23)
PC's: 31.0% - 5 (1, 2, 4, 6, 7)
Liberals: 28.5% - 5 (3, 24, 25, 26, 27)

Re: the referendum, a narrow majority of the province votes to pass, but it fails to be approved by at least 60% of the districts.

Bonus: District 9 goes Green at the by-election, giving the Greens a total of 17 seats as well as a sweep of Charlottetown.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/kerrywcampbell/status/1120768109814661120

[mileslunn]

Anyone here think a PC majority is possible?  While skeptical, Forum showed them ahead and they were closest to federal results.  Also PEI Tories are very much your traditional Red Tories so its not uncommon for them to do poorly in between elections due to confusion with federal party which is a bit too right wing for PEI, but then as focus turns to province see their numbers go up.