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Author Topic: CO: Magellan (R) - Polis +5, Keating (D) - Polis +8  (Read 417 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: November 01, 2018, 07:14:40 am »

https://www.denverpost.com/2018/11/01/colorado-governor-poll-polis-stapleton/

Polis (D) 45, Stapleton (R) 40 [Magellan/R]

Polis 50, Stapleton 42 [Keating/D]
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2018, 07:27:25 am »

Has this race ever fluctuated past a high single digit margin?
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2018, 08:17:07 am »

Has this race ever fluctuated past a high single digit margin?

I think we got a high quality poll that showed Polis up by 12. Can't remember which right now, though.
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OneJ
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2018, 08:32:29 am »

Has this race ever fluctuated past a high single digit margin?

I think we got a high quality poll that showed Polis up by 12. Can't remember which right now, though.

It was from YouGov.
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2018, 08:59:34 am »

I am guessing it will go Democrat 52-44. Maybe Polis will get all of Udalls counties plus Larimer and Chafee.
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Bennet or Bust
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2018, 10:53:42 am »

I think Polis wins by 8 or 9. He'll win all of Bennet's counties from 2016 (maybe minus Las Animas) and perhaps pick up Garfield, Chaffee, and/or Mineral.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2018, 11:22:48 am »

I think Polis wins by 8 or 9. He'll win all of Bennet's counties from 2016 (maybe minus Las Animas) and perhaps pick up Garfield, Chaffee, and/or Mineral.

This is my thinking as well. What do you think will happen with the other statewide races? And do you think Polis will win the white vote?
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2018, 12:41:23 pm »

This is easily one of the most boring and predictable gubernatorial races this year.
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2018, 12:47:24 pm »

This is easily one of the most boring and predictable gubernatorial races this year.

Uh, no. Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato assured me it would be a highly competitive pure toss up that could go either way, and I have no reason to doubt their expertise.
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2018, 12:51:13 pm »

I think Polis wins by 8 or 9. He'll win all of Bennet's counties from 2016 (maybe minus Las Animas) and perhaps pick up Garfield, Chaffee, and/or Mineral.

This is my thinking as well. What do you think will happen with the other statewide races? And do you think Polis will win the white vote?

Anyone else have any perspectives on these questions?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2018, 03:08:42 pm »

I think Polis wins by 8 or 9. He'll win all of Bennet's counties from 2016 (maybe minus Las Animas) and perhaps pick up Garfield, Chaffee, and/or Mineral.

This is my thinking as well. What do you think will happen with the other statewide races? And do you think Polis will win the white vote?

Anyone else have any perspectives on these questions?

Bumping up one more time.
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Bennet or Bust
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2018, 03:09:44 pm »

I think Polis wins by 8 or 9. He'll win all of Bennet's counties from 2016 (maybe minus Las Animas) and perhaps pick up Garfield, Chaffee, and/or Mineral.

This is my thinking as well. What do you think will happen with the other statewide races? And do you think Polis will win the white vote?

I think there won't be a single Republican statewide elected official in the state of Colorado in 2019. Wayne Williams will come the closest to winning reelection, but I'm predicting he goes down too.

I'm not sure about how the white vote will go down. How close did Clinton and Bennet come to winning it in 2016?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2018, 03:14:46 pm »

I think Polis wins by 8 or 9. He'll win all of Bennet's counties from 2016 (maybe minus Las Animas) and perhaps pick up Garfield, Chaffee, and/or Mineral.

This is my thinking as well. What do you think will happen with the other statewide races? And do you think Polis will win the white vote?

I think there won't be a single Republican statewide elected official in the state of Colorado in 2019. Wayne Williams will come the closest to winning reelection, but I'm predicting he goes down too.

I'm not sure about how the white vote will go down. How close did Clinton and Bennet come to winning it in 2016?

According to reagente's White Vote/Non-White Vote tables, Trump won whites in Colorado by ~5 points, while losing the state by the same margin. Clinton won a plurality among white women, but Trump beat her among white men by double digits. My guess is that if Polis wins by 8-9%, he might narrowly carry the white vote. Obama won Colorado by 9% back in 2008, and he won the white vote here by 2 points. Of course, demographics have changed since then, but not radically.

As for your other points, I am inclined to agree with you. Polis will definitely win, and I think both Young and Weiser are favored. I'm not sure about Williams, though a Griswold victory wouldn't surprise me. It's unfortunate that the other statewide races have not been polled.

How do you feel about Mitsch Bush and Crow at this point? And do you think Stephany Rose-Spaulding might manage to reach 40% against Doug Lamborn?
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