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Author Topic: IN - NBC/Marist: Donnelly +2  (Read 1347 times)
Bevinevitable
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« Reply #25 on: October 31, 2018, 04:24:45 pm »

Is FOX going to do another of their massive polling dumps, or Indiana only?
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« Reply #26 on: October 31, 2018, 04:27:19 pm »

Is FOX going to do another of their massive polling dumps, or Indiana only?

They usually release all at once
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« Reply #27 on: October 31, 2018, 04:36:20 pm »

Marist has been bad all year long. They have D's AHEAD everywhere except TX & TN. I'll have to check their Polls from 2014 cuz if they underestimating R-Turnout the same way back then R's certainly looking pretty good in ND, IN, MO, TX and TN.

Trumps JA with Independents is -4 in Indiana yet Donnelly +23 over Braun with that Group. It doesn't make sense.
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« Reply #28 on: October 31, 2018, 04:37:54 pm »

Marist has been bad all year long. They have D's AHEAD everywhere except TX & TN. I'll have to check their Polls from 2014 cuz if they underestimating R-Turnout the same way back then R's certainly looking pretty good in ND, IN, MO, TX and TN.

Trumps JA with Independents is -2 in Indiana yet Donnelly +23 over Braun with that Group. It doesn't make sense.
I mean yeah, this year will definitely be a repeat of 2014.

Really hope you have plenty to drink on election night
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #29 on: October 31, 2018, 04:38:08 pm »

Marist has been bad all year long. They have D's AHEAD everywhere except TX & TN. I'll have to check their Polls from 2014 cuz if they underestimating R-Turnout the same way back then R's certainly looking pretty good in ND, IN, MO, TX and TN.

Trumps JA with Independents is -2 in Indiana yet Donnelly +23 over Braun with that Group. It doesn't make sense.
You.can approve of the President yet vote D, you know.

Using your logic, Joe Manchin would be getting destroyed by Pat Morrisey right now.
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« Reply #30 on: October 31, 2018, 04:39:26 pm »

Marist is biased. Braun will win.
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« Reply #31 on: October 31, 2018, 04:41:20 pm »

Marist has been bad all year long. They have D's AHEAD everywhere except TX & TN. I'll have to check their Polls from 2014 cuz if they underestimating R-Turnout the same way back then R's certainly looking pretty good in ND, IN, MO, TX and TN.

Trumps JA with Independents is -2 in Indiana yet Donnelly +23 over Braun with that Group. It doesn't make sense.
You.can approve of the President yet vote D, you know.

Using your logic, Joe Manchin would be getting destroyed by Pat Morrisey right now.

I don't dispute that BUT +23 is a little bit too much, don't you think? Same in AZ where they have Sinema +27 among Indies where Trumps JA is clearly on the rise.
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« Reply #32 on: October 31, 2018, 04:44:12 pm »

Marist has been bad all year long. They have D's AHEAD everywhere except TX & TN. I'll have to check their Polls from 2014 cuz if they underestimating R-Turnout the same way back then R's certainly looking pretty good in ND, IN, MO, TX and TN.

Trumps JA with Independents is -2 in Indiana yet Donnelly +23 over Braun with that Group. It doesn't make sense.
You.can approve of the President yet vote D, you know.

Using your logic, Joe Manchin would be getting destroyed by Pat Morrisey right now.

I don't dispute that BUT +23 is a little bit too much, don't you think? Same in AZ where they have Sinema +27 among Indies where Trumps JA is clearly on the rise.
Possibly, given Donnelly beat Mourdock with indys by a lesser margin.  However, Dems are energized this year, and Braun is a less-than-exciting candidate with no real message. Weirder things happen.
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« Reply #33 on: October 31, 2018, 04:49:07 pm »

2016, can you please stop unskewing using crosstabs like indies? This poll had 29% indies among likely voters, which is n=144. That would have an MOE of over 8 points with Indiana's population.
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« Reply #34 on: October 31, 2018, 04:51:44 pm »

Why are people calling a +2 poll a toss up?
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« Reply #35 on: October 31, 2018, 04:52:16 pm »

libertpaulian: 42% college educated, too high?
The Bayh vs. Young race was 47% college, 53% non-college.  Young won college by 6% and non-college by 15%.


If those #s you are quoting are from exit polls, they probably overstate the college #. On the other hand, the college # should be higher in a midterm than in a Presidential year (unless the turnout is really really high).
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« Reply #36 on: October 31, 2018, 04:53:42 pm »

2016, can you please stop unskewing using crosstabs like indies? This poll had 29% indies among likely voters, which is n=144. That would have an MOE of over 8 points with Indiana's population.

It isn't just Indies. Braun gets only 60% of the Evangelical Christian Vote...not even close to right. These Marist Polls have HUGE Flaws no matter how you slice it.
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« Reply #37 on: October 31, 2018, 04:55:26 pm »

Why are people calling a +2 poll a toss up?

Because it’s close enough to a tie that a turnout differential could send it the other way (or, by the same token, see a bigger Donnelly win). Totally reasonable nomenclature
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« Reply #38 on: October 31, 2018, 04:57:47 pm »

Wow, a great pollster showed a race that was believed to be R thanks to bad pollsters and data isnt. So surprised.

Honestly, I am willing to declare that Claire is up too, and we will all be shocked.

Apparently Fox is releasing some polls soon, so lets see what they say....
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« Reply #39 on: October 31, 2018, 04:59:48 pm »

2016, can you please stop unskewing using crosstabs like indies? This poll had 29% indies among likely voters, which is n=144. That would have an MOE of over 8 points with Indiana's population.

It isn't just Indies. Braun gets only 60% of the Evangelical Christian Vote...not even close to right. These Marist Polls have HUGE Flaws no matter how you slice it.
Donnelly doesn't have the gay pride marching, abortion-loving, coastal elite image that Hillary did.  While he won't do well with them, he won't get blown out of the water with Hillary margins, either.  In 2008, exit polls showed Obama winning about 30% of Indiana evangelicals, and he was already tarnished with the coastal elite image in the primary.
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« Reply #40 on: October 31, 2018, 05:11:48 pm »

2016, can you please stop unskewing using crosstabs like indies? This poll had 29% indies among likely voters, which is n=144. That would have an MOE of over 8 points with Indiana's population.

It isn't just Indies. Braun gets only 60% of the Evangelical Christian Vote...not even close to right. These Marist Polls have HUGE Flaws no matter how you slice it.
Donnelly doesn't have the gay pride marching, abortion-loving, coastal elite image that Hillary did.  While he won't do well with them, he won't get blown out of the water with Hillary margins, either.  In 2008, exit polls showed Obama winning about 30% of Indiana evangelicals, and he was already tarnished with the coastal elite image in the primary.

Are Indiana evangelicals more willing to vote D than in the South, because 25% D seems high admittedly.
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« Reply #41 on: October 31, 2018, 05:13:04 pm »

2016, can you please stop unskewing using crosstabs like indies? This poll had 29% indies among likely voters, which is n=144. That would have an MOE of over 8 points with Indiana's population.

It isn't just Indies. Braun gets only 60% of the Evangelical Christian Vote...not even close to right. These Marist Polls have HUGE Flaws no matter how you slice it.
Donnelly doesn't have the gay pride marching, abortion-loving, coastal elite image that Hillary did.  While he won't do well with them, he won't get blown out of the water with Hillary margins, either.  In 2008, exit polls showed Obama winning about 30% of Indiana evangelicals, and he was already tarnished with the coastal elite image in the primary.

Are Indiana evangelicals more willing to vote D than in the South, because 25% D seems high admittedly.

Southern evangelicals are considerably more partisan (also, “evangelical” is a term so overbroad it’s effectively vague)
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« Reply #42 on: October 31, 2018, 05:18:00 pm »

2016, can you please stop unskewing using crosstabs like indies? This poll had 29% indies among likely voters, which is n=144. That would have an MOE of over 8 points with Indiana's population.

It isn't just Indies. Braun gets only 60% of the Evangelical Christian Vote...not even close to right. These Marist Polls have HUGE Flaws no matter how you slice it.
Donnelly doesn't have the gay pride marching, abortion-loving, coastal elite image that Hillary did.  While he won't do well with them, he won't get blown out of the water with Hillary margins, either.  In 2008, exit polls showed Obama winning about 30% of Indiana evangelicals, and he was already tarnished with the coastal elite image in the primary.

Are Indiana evangelicals more willing to vote D than in the South, because 25% D seems high admittedly.
Donnelly got 27% of the born-again vote in 2012.
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« Reply #43 on: October 31, 2018, 06:30:25 pm »

I'll take it. Important Donnelly had better favorability numbers than Braun.

I'll take it also. I was basically writing Donnelly off. It's good to see that he's still in this. If he survives I'm fairly certain we get a D+0 Senate at worst. I'm fine with that at this point.
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« Reply #44 on: October 31, 2018, 06:35:20 pm »

*Fingers crossed*. This will be my race to watch. If Donnelly wins again, Democrats are at D+0, which is satisfactory enough for me.
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« Reply #45 on: October 31, 2018, 10:23:52 pm »

LOL, Donnelly +23 among Indies. The Marist Crap Show continues.

Ya'll can gloat about that Poll BUT FOX NEWS will have apparently IN-SEN Poll as well @6pm.

Well, that FOX poll worked out well for the cause of unskewing...
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« Reply #46 on: October 31, 2018, 10:53:03 pm »

*Fingers crossed*. This will be my race to watch. If Donnelly wins again, Democrats are at D+0, which is satisfactory enough for me.

If the Senate ends up 50-50 then the Democrats should go all out to get Murkowski to either switch parties or caucus with them. Promise her all the federal pork in the world
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« Reply #47 on: November 01, 2018, 07:19:56 pm »

Sorry for the double post by the way, I didn't realize that I did that.
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