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Author Topic: CNN: Gillum 1+  (Read 1396 times)
Hindsight is 2020
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« on: November 01, 2018, 11:11:15 am »

Gillum: 49
DeSantis: 48
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2018, 11:50:51 am »

Their last poll had Gillum +12. Yikes!

Unsurprisingly, it looks like Atlas spiked the football in this race a bit too soon. Gillum is barely ahead, and he's actually doing worse than Nelson in most of the polls now. Should've nominated Graham.
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2018, 11:52:32 am »

Their last poll had Gillum +12. Yikes!

Unsurprisingly, it looks like Atlas spiked the football in this race a bit too soon. Gillum is barely ahead, and he's actually doing worse than Nelson in most of the polls now. Should've nominated Graham.

Tbf, Gillum +12 was always a massive outlier.
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SirWoodbury
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2018, 11:56:23 am »

You know, some people say that Gillum is the one carrying Nelson to the finish line. However, after these last polls, I have come to the conclusion that it is Nelson that is actually carrying Gillum.
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2018, 12:21:59 pm »

Their last poll had Gillum +12. Yikes!

Unsurprisingly, it looks like Atlas spiked the football in this race a bit too soon. Gillum is barely ahead, and he's actually doing worse than Nelson in most of the polls now. Should've nominated Graham.

Tbf, Gillum +12 was always a massive outlier.

That is true.

Here is what CNN writes:

In the new CNN poll, the decline in support for Gillum comes across demographic groups, but is sharpest among non-white voters (Gillum drops nine points among that group), those without college degrees (down seven points) and women (down six).

If that is true then Gillum has a Major Problem on his hands. Especially the Non-White Group should be a Red Flag for Team Gillum.

Maybe the Hamilton thingy does have some resonance with Voters.
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BLOOMENTUM INCREASES
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2018, 12:22:08 pm »

HamiltonGate and his muffed reaction may have had an impact. This feels like a tossup that will come down to turnout.
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2018, 12:32:23 pm »

You know, some people say that Gillum is the one carrying Nelson to the finish line. However, after these last polls, I have come to the conclusion that it is Nelson that is actually carrying Gillum.

Or neither statement is true and the national environment/turnout will decide the outcome of both races? #bold, I know.
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2018, 12:40:05 pm »

Gillum's significant leads in previous polls definitely didn't seem to align with Florida's character.  I think it's going to be a photo finish, but Gillum can take some solace in knowing that pretty much every reputable poll has him up by 1 or 2 points now.  The pessimist that I am, I'm still going to predict DeSantis wins, though.
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Born, raised, and currently residing in Southern California
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2018, 12:56:02 pm »

You know, some people say that Gillum is the one carrying Nelson to the finish line. However, after these last polls, I have come to the conclusion that it is Nelson that is actually carrying Gillum.

Both Florida Races look like will come down to E-Day Turnout. By the end of E-Voting when the weekend is added everything will be at 0-10K give or take.
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2018, 01:02:19 pm »

And people got sassy with me for suggesting Gillum wasn't likely to outperform Nelson.

Roll Eyes
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2018, 01:03:43 pm »

And people got sassy with me for suggesting Gillum wasn't likely to outperform Nelson.

Roll Eyes

I thought either overperforming the other was possible, but we were never going to see more than a 1-2% gap either way.
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2018, 01:05:29 pm »

And people got sassy with me for suggesting Gillum wasn't likely to outperform Nelson.

Roll Eyes

Didn't you know you should take September polls as gospel?
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2018, 01:06:24 pm »

And people got sassy with me for suggesting Gillum wasn't likely to outperform Nelson.

Roll Eyes

I thought either overperforming the other was possible, but we were never going to see more than a 1-2% gap either way.

There probably won't be much of a difference either way, but the argument for Gillum usually went something like "he's going to bring out all of these new minority voters!", conveniently ignoring the leap in logic regarding who exactly these people are going to vote for in the Senate race. The Republican?

Meanwhile, Nelson will of course enjoy 1-2 points worth of exclusive support from racist Panhandle whites who still have a fondness for Nelson but would never vote for a non-white candidate.



Anyway, Nelson wins by 4-5 points and Gillum by 2-3 most likely.
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2018, 01:35:36 pm »

FL is a hive of villainy, DeSantis is a cartoon villain. Logistically speaking, he should win.

Logistically?

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Galletito
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2018, 03:26:51 pm »

Worrisome. But I think Gillum pulls it out in the end, especially considering that even Tr*falgar has him up.
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2018, 04:28:06 pm »

If the last sample was too pro-Gillum, this one is probably too low. He just happened to lose % among women and non-whites, his main demos? Ok...
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2018, 05:34:00 pm »

Their last poll had Gillum +12. Yikes!

Unsurprisingly, it looks like Atlas spiked the football in this race a bit too soon. Gillum is barely ahead, and he's actually doing worse than Nelson in most of the polls now. Should've nominated Graham.

all other polls with bigger gillum leads

one outlier- rip gillum lol
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Galletito
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2018, 05:35:50 pm »

Their last poll had Gillum +12. Yikes!

Unsurprisingly, it looks like Atlas spiked the football in this race a bit too soon. Gillum is barely ahead, and he's actually doing worse than Nelson in most of the polls now. Should've nominated Graham.

all other polls with bigger gillum leads

one outlier- rip gillum lol
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2018, 07:51:33 pm »

This is getting a bit close for comfort. Florida will always be Florida. But DeSantis is still struggling to lead in polls.
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« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2018, 09:32:00 pm »

all other polls with bigger gillum leads

one outlier- rip gillum lol

Nobody said RIP Gillum, but a lot of people sure were saying RIP DeSantis despite Gillum's current lead being pretty tenuous. RCP has him up 2.7, so it's not even an outlier.
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« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2018, 10:58:12 pm »

Gillum will win due to the #Gonzalezeffect
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« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2018, 11:03:47 pm »

As I feared, the geriatrics that make up Florida are getting cold feet over the proepsect of having a Black Man as governor and are coming home to Whitey
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2018, 10:34:22 am »

Graham would not have done better and furthermore I'm glad that her neoliberal corporatist ideology didn't win her the primary and that Florida will have a Governor that will actually care about people and making bold moves and not cowtowing to corporations and health insurance industries! Gillum is fine and will win and people need to stop bedwetting!
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2018, 12:10:01 pm »

I'm hoping DeSantis racks up the I-4 voters. I'm really hoping. Gillum seems like a real corrupt dude.
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« Reply #24 on: November 24, 2018, 02:36:55 pm »

You know, some people say that Gillum is the one carrying Nelson to the finish line. However, after these last polls, I have come to the conclusion that it is Nelson that is actually carrying Gillum.
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