And people got sassy with me for suggesting Gillum wasn't likely to outperform Nelson.
I thought either overperforming the other was possible, but we were never going to see more than a 1-2% gap either way.
There probably won't be much of a difference either way, but the argument for Gillum usually went something like "he's going to bring out all of these new minority voters!", conveniently ignoring the leap in logic regarding who exactly these people are going to vote for in the Senate race. The Republican?
Meanwhile, Nelson will of course enjoy 1-2 points worth of exclusive support from racist Panhandle whites who still have a fondness for Nelson but would never vote for a non-white candidate.
Anyway, Nelson wins by 4-5 points and Gillum by 2-3 most likely.
