We have now had four consecutive polls (NBC/Marist, Fox, Emerson, and CNN/SSRS), showing Blackburn up by low to high single digits. Tennessee is beyond reach for the Democrats at this point, a fact that is driven even further home by the very high Republican turnout that has been observed there. Anyone still entertaining any hopes in Bredesen at this point is sorely misguided.
Yet, it's also low enough to explain why the Republicans are still pumping money into this. The only chance Bredesen has is that his favorable have tended to be higher, but I wouldn't put that any higher than 10%.
I agree. Even at this late stage, Bredesen's personal approval ratings are much higher than Blackburn's, but he is losing because Tennessee is an inherently Republican state, and party identification matters more to many voters there than anything else. Which is unfortunate, given that Tennessee hasn't elected a Democratic Senator in 28 years and that Bredesen is a moderate who would help give some balance to the Senate, while Blackburn is a hardline conservative who would only worsen polarization.
As I stated elsewhere, Blackburn would be the first Republican Senator from Tennessee to not fit the "moderate or establishmentarian" mold, in contrast to Corker, Alexander, Frist, Thompson, and Baker.