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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  OR-Hoffman: Brown +3
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Author Topic: OR-Hoffman: Brown +3  (Read 793 times)
Oregon Blue Dog
meepcheese16
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« Reply #25 on: November 01, 2018, 10:57:33 am »

Holding out hope, but Brown is favored for sure.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #26 on: November 01, 2018, 11:04:37 am »

buehler is classic rino, i'm glad he will lose just like rauner. we don't need more rino governors. hogan, baker and scott are more than enough.

We quite literally desperately need more.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #27 on: November 01, 2018, 11:11:44 am »

Holding out hope, but Brown is favored for sure.
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Oregon Blue Dog
meepcheese16
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« Reply #28 on: November 01, 2018, 01:04:17 pm »

buehler is classic rino, i'm glad he will lose just like rauner. we don't need more rino governors. hogan, baker and scott are more than enough.

We quite literally desperately need more.
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The Saint
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« Reply #29 on: November 01, 2018, 01:10:09 pm »

buehler is classic rino, i'm glad he will lose just like rauner. we don't need more rino governors. hogan, baker and scott are more than enough.

We quite literally desperately need more.
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Totalitarian Contrarian
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« Reply #30 on: November 02, 2018, 01:21:34 am »

I mean I think Brown is obviously favored, but people forget that Richardson won the SoS race in 2016 while Trump lost by 11.  There's a recent history of ticket-splitting despite the Dem being a bad candidate that year so I could see Oregon bucking muh fundamentals.
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #31 on: November 02, 2018, 01:30:26 am »

I voted for brown and I am hoping she can pull it off.

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #32 on: November 02, 2018, 01:51:44 am »

So, here is my latest update on Oregon Early Voting numbers...

This is the thread where I post my daily updates of OR returns for the NOV 18 GE...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=301469.msg6504965#msg6504965

Ok--- I know most of y'all are most focused on the hot button elections for US-SEN and GOVs in large States, etc.... but still being the Oregon Election addict I am, feel the moral obligation to share the latest Vote-by-Mail update from the great State of Oregon.

OREGON- NOV '18 GE UPDATE- EV data posted on the OR-SoS site as of 18:00 PST.

Img


+ 124k Votes added since Yesterdays Update....  DEM RAW VOTE margins over REP RAW VOTE MARGINS increase from 85.7k to 98.5k.... (Crazy....)

In terms of % Binary Margins DEMS now only lead by +12.5% D vs +12.9% D Yesterday and + 13.0% D on 10/30 SoS Update.

Now, time to look at the overall Turnout to Date in Oregon by Party contrasted against RV numbers as a % of Total Registered Voters:

Img


So, what we see here is that the Democrats have increased their % of DEM REG Voters compared to REP REG Voters from 35.8% of DEMs having already cast ballots vs 28.8% of PUBS.... MISC are now at 20.2%.

The Graph on the left are REG VOTERS by PARTY as a % of TOT REG VOTERS....

Ok--- on paper these numbers look extremely difficult for 'PUBS to overcome in a Statewide Election (OR-GOV), unless there is a combination of not only "Ancestral DEMS" in places like Coos, Columbia, Linn, Waco, Tillamook, etc voting in extremely high % numbers for Knute, combined with a minimal defection of REG PUBs from Metro PDX, and some of the larger Pop Centers in Downstate, and Knute winning 60% of Indies (Think Metro PDX especially).

Fine....

Let's look at the Total % of DEM Turnout by County of RV/EV (11/1 numbers, but OR always runs in arrears).

Img


Ok--- where are the major gaps in DEM Turnout???

Heavily concentrated in the Willamette Valley, including the PDX "'Burbs" of Washington County, Multco (Heavily PDX), as well as the heavily Middle-Age and Younger parts of the Mid-Valley (Including places with significant Latino % of VAP)...

We see similar patterns of RV/EV DEM Turnout in heavily Latino places in Eastern Oregon, where DEMS are becoming a much larger slice of the electorate (Morrow, Umatilla, Malheur, & Crook).

In parts of Oregon with larger Senior Populations, we see extremely High levels of DEM turnout in the NW Coast, SW Oregon Coast, Grain Country in the Columbia River Gorge, and places like (Lake, Wallowa, & Harney), etc....

So--- overall DEM vs REP TO numbers went from a + 2.5% GAP on 10/30 numbers and are now a   
 + 6.9% D TO GAP based upon the 1/11 numbers.

Meanwhile the only places where the DEMs gained on the TO GAP were a small handful of rural Counties, but did increase numbers significantly in a handful of places:

Multnomah: + 0.2% D > Increase (10/30-11/1)
Washington: +0.1% D > Increase (10/30-11/1)
Benton: + 0.9% D > Increase (10/30-11/1)
Lane: + 0.2% D > Increase (10/30-11/1)
Yamhill: +0.3% D > Increase (10/30-11/1)


Problem for 'Pubs is these "handful of counties account for a significant chunk of the Vote Share in Oregon, and additionally indicate potential weaknesses among Indie Voters in the OR-GOV election, which is why Dem's slapped an additional +10k votes in the bank Yesterday...

All is not lost for the 'Pubs however, we saw movements when it comes to RV REP vs DEM TO in favor of the 'Pubs in Deschutes, Jackson, and Clackamas towards the 'Pubs, so maybe the Turnout Gap might be correcting in these relatively large Pop Centers....

Still, I would much rather be Kate Brown sitting with a +100k Dem lead in the bank, knowing that Knute would really have to run up the score with Indies and 'Pubs, and swing a pretty heft chunk of Ancestral Dems, minimize losses from 'PUB defections in places like Happy Valley, Lake Oswego, and certain precincts in West /SW PDX, North Eugene, East Medford, etc.

More to come....

The Hoffman polling numbers do not appear to be logical based upon the raw data currently available.

At this point, based upon data available I'm thinking it will more likely be a Brown +7-10% Win....








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