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Author Topic: GA-UGA: Tie  (Read 679 times)
Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« on: November 01, 2018, 05:24:38 pm »

Stacey Abrams (D) 47
Brian Kemp (R) 47

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RFKFan68
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2018, 05:27:42 pm »

Hm. Abrams has now inched ahead in two separate polls that previously had her down. Hopefully the sleeping giant of non-midterm voters is what gets her to 50%.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2018, 05:28:30 pm »

Dare I say that this race is close?
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Noted Irishman
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2018, 05:31:21 pm »

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KingSweden
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2018, 05:33:43 pm »

Dare I say that this race is close?
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2018, 05:38:27 pm »

Dare I say that this race is close?

Surprise

Are you also going to tell me this race might be going to a runoff?
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North Fulton Democrat
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2018, 05:43:40 pm »

This is presently getting considerable coverage on the WSB-TV/radio stations (the largest in the metro Atlanta market).  Both sides think that someone will get to the 50% next Tuesday and there won't be a runoff.  There seems to be good news on both sides (Abrams winning independents by a big margin and Kemp winning college educated women by a significant margin as well).

This is truly going to be a turnout effort--Democrats have done their best, but Georgia is still a tilt R state.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2018, 05:55:05 pm »

This is presently getting considerable coverage on the WSB-TV/radio stations (the largest in the metro Atlanta market).  Both sides think that someone will get to the 50% next Tuesday and there won't be a runoff.  There seems to be good news on both sides (Abrams winning independents by a big margin and Kemp winning college educated women by a significant margin as well).

This is truly going to be a turnout effort--Democrats have done their best, but Georgia is still a tilt R state.
Uh, what?!  Isn't that demographic supposed to be pro-Abrams?!  I mean, her message seems to be very appropriate for them.

« Last Edit: November 01, 2018, 05:59:23 pm by libertpaulian »Logged
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2018, 06:02:13 pm »

This is presently getting considerable coverage on the WSB-TV/radio stations (the largest in the metro Atlanta market).  Both sides think that someone will get to the 50% next Tuesday and there won't be a runoff.  There seems to be good news on both sides (Abrams winning independents by a big margin and Kemp winning college educated women by a significant margin as well).

This is truly going to be a turnout effort--Democrats have done their best, but Georgia is still a tilt R state.
Uh, what?!  Isn't that demographic supposed to be pro-Abrams?!


Even in 2016, there wasn't that big of a gap based on education in GA. Perhaps the word "white" is also supposed to be there, but even if not, if Kemp is winning two-thirds of white female college grads and, say, 15% of non-white female college grads, that'd mean he's winning anywhere from 47-54% of that demographic (depending on how much education is skewed racially in favor of whites).
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2018, 06:04:47 pm »

^^^ FWIW, Abrams is winning 27% of the white vote in this poll and 32% of white women. I don't see any breakdowns by education, though.

Quote
Voters over 65 favor Kemp, while younger voters under 29 back Abrams by a 22-point margin.

The Democrat also leads among independent voters, who made up only about 10 percent of the electorate, by 53.5 percent to 25.4 percent.

Trumpís approval rating remained steady at 46 percent, while his disapproval rating remained unchanged at 50 percent.

Liberals overwhelmingly oppose him, conservatives overwhelmingly support him, but thereís a starker split among independents: Only 1 in 4 approve of his performance.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/new-poll-race-for-ga-governor-as-close-as-ever/864589580

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libertpaulian
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2018, 06:17:37 pm »

^^^ FWIW, Abrams is winning 27% of the white vote in this poll and 32% of white women. I don't see any breakdowns by education, though.

Quote
Voters over 65 favor Kemp, while younger voters under 29 back Abrams by a 22-point margin.

The Democrat also leads among independent voters, who made up only about 10 percent of the electorate, by 53.5 percent to 25.4 percent.

Trumpís approval rating remained steady at 46 percent, while his disapproval rating remained unchanged at 50 percent.

Liberals overwhelmingly oppose him, conservatives overwhelmingly support him, but thereís a starker split among independents: Only 1 in 4 approve of his performance.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/new-poll-race-for-ga-governor-as-close-as-ever/864589580

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I don't think she'll bode THAT poorly with white women.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2018, 06:21:09 pm »

I don't think she'll bode THAT poorly with white women.

32% among white women is a damn good figure (if true) for Georgia - especially when you remember that like half of them live in communities where whites are more Republican than Latinos are Democratic, and another quarter live in communities where whites are as Republican as blacks are Democratic.

For it to be at 27% in this poll, that means Abrams is winning 23% of white men (let's hope so). Those are winning numbers.
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North Fulton Democrat
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2018, 06:32:14 pm »

And the 32% white woman vote for Abrams is being pulled up by the more educated voter subsection (perhaps they lean Kemp but by a relatively small margin--it was not noted in the news broadcast).

It looks like she will at least match if not exceed the white vote percentage that Jason Carter received. This is an amazing result and something I didn't expect at the beginning of the campaign.  With a strong independent vote and new voter support, she has a chance to exceed 50% on Tuesday.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2018, 06:35:54 pm by North Fulton Democrat »Logged
ThatConservativeGuy
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2018, 06:32:38 pm »

^^^ FWIW, Abrams is winning 27% of the white vote in this poll and 32% of white women. I don't see any breakdowns by education, though.

Quote
Voters over 65 favor Kemp, while younger voters under 29 back Abrams by a 22-point margin.

The Democrat also leads among independent voters, who made up only about 10 percent of the electorate, by 53.5 percent to 25.4 percent.

Trumpís approval rating remained steady at 46 percent, while his disapproval rating remained unchanged at 50 percent.

Liberals overwhelmingly oppose him, conservatives overwhelmingly support him, but thereís a starker split among independents: Only 1 in 4 approve of his performance.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/new-poll-race-for-ga-governor-as-close-as-ever/864589580

Img


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I don't think she'll bode THAT poorly with white women.


You're obviously not familiar with how racially polarized voting is in Georgia...
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Hammy
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2018, 06:49:50 pm »

Still safe R until Abrams can reach 50% (and even then, there's no guarantee those polled will be allowed to vote)
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Prolocutor Bagel23
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2018, 06:56:05 pm »

Lean R.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2018, 07:53:22 pm »

This could end up being a nail-biter.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2018, 09:39:58 pm »

Georgia polls are so boring. Will it be another tie? Abrams +1? *gasp* Maybe even Kemp +2?!
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Let Dogs Survive
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« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2018, 11:15:23 pm »

It'd be pretty surreal if Abrams hit the 50% and Gillum lost after all this.
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