NH-GOV Change Research (NHDP internal): Sununu (R-inc) 47, Kelly (D) 46

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No it's not, Dems have NH2 and all female Dem Senate delegation. Upset can happen

[free my dawg]

Still Leans R (I've always taken the Sununu+15 polls as a name recog advantage), but if Sununu loses... wow.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NH 2 and female voters who were lackluster in support of Van Ostern. That's why I put it on my prediction map

[MT Treasurer]

Sununu should just sit back and enjoy the feeling of that noose tightening around his neck ever so slowly.

[free my dawg]

Anyways, shtick aside, I still give the ad to Sununu. You either have to be very offensive or very bad to lose a gubernatorial election in your first term. Benson's the only one to lose in the post-FDR era, mainly because of various corruption scandals and his inability to work with people.

Kelly's focus on issues is a bit of a head-scratcher. Paid leave is obviously a winning issue, but I'm surprised to see her stray from her roots regarding education, or his permanent residence in the swamp.

Chris Sununu is really no different from Brownback or Fallin on education, and the only reason why he hasn't gutted the state's education system for vouchers is because the legislature voted it down. His Secretary of Education appointment, like Trump's, was blatantly political in nature. He appointed Frank Edelbut, his main primary rival, to unify the party. He has zero education experience aside from homeschooling his children. In fact, he was an accountant and a businessman before becoming a state representative who almost upset Sununu in the primary.

He's also a swamp creature. Ignoring the obvious take on dynastic politics, he's a Romney-esque serial flip-flopper. You name an issue, he's changed his mind on it. He is not a conservative, and he is not a liberal. Chris Sununu is whatever is convenient for Chris Sununu at any given time.