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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  WI Emerson: Evers +5
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Author Topic: WI Emerson: Evers +5  (Read 1493 times)
Scottholes 2.0
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« on: November 02, 2018, 09:34:18 am »
« edited: November 02, 2018, 09:55:33 am by BlueFlapjack »

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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2018, 09:38:56 am »

Consider the source, though.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2018, 09:40:00 am »

Margin could be somewhat accurate, but:

> e m e r s o n
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2018, 09:41:23 am »

Throw it all in there. That's all we can do.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2018, 09:52:06 am »

Margin could be somewhat accurate, but:

> e m e r s o n
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2018, 10:15:37 am »

Consider the source, though.

The only argument this entire election for your Walker prediction has been "ignore every poll but the one that shows Walker doing OK because every other poll shows him losing."

They should use you in poli sci classes as the Gold Standard in how to not interpret polls. Classic confirmation bias if I ever saw it. That is, unless you're just trolling, which is the most probable answer here, in which case you should just go in a Hall Of Fame for assholes.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2018, 10:19:15 am »

Consider the source, though.

The only argument this entire election for your Walker prediction has been "ignore every poll but the one that shows Walker doing OK because every other poll shows him losing."

They should use you in poli sci classes as the Gold Standard in how to not interpret polls. Classic confirmation bias if I ever saw it. That is, unless you're just trolling, which is the most probable answer here, in which case you should just go in a Hall Of Fame for assholes.
C'mon, Virginia. You know better than to defend Emerson of all pollsters. Why is it trolling to doubt their numbers while throwing less doubt to Marquette? 
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2018, 10:22:19 am »

Consider the source, though.

The only argument this entire election for your Walker prediction has been "ignore every poll but the one that shows Walker doing OK because every other poll shows him losing."

They should use you in poli sci classes as the Gold Standard in how to not interpret polls. Classic confirmation bias if I ever saw it. That is, unless you're just trolling, which is the most probable answer here, in which case you should just go in a Hall Of Fame for assholes.
C'mon, Virginia. You know better than to defend Emerson of all pollsters. Why is it trolling to doubt their numbers while throwing less doubt to Marquette? 

It's not about Emerson. It's just about this behavior of deciding what you want and then selectively tossing out anything that challenges that view. It's clear as day with you.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2018, 10:24:31 am »

I really hope we get another poll in this race, but I doubt we will.
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Stephen Curry is Awesome
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2018, 10:25:12 am »

Walker will lose
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2018, 10:32:03 am »

Consider the source, though.

The only argument this entire election for your Walker prediction has been "ignore every poll but the one that shows Walker doing OK because every other poll shows him losing."

They should use you in poli sci classes as the Gold Standard in how to not interpret polls. Classic confirmation bias if I ever saw it. That is, unless you're just trolling, which is the most probable answer here, in which case you should just go in a Hall Of Fame for assholes.
C'mon, Virginia. You know better than to defend Emerson of all pollsters. Why is it trolling to doubt their numbers while throwing less doubt to Marquette? 

She's right, though. The fact that you even dismissed the Marist poll (which as almost as good as MU) is telling.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2018, 10:48:28 am »

I really hope we get another poll in this race, but I doubt we will.

I heard rumor we're expecting a Suffolk poll, but maybe not?
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The Unbearable Inevitability of Nevada going Democratic
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2018, 11:01:54 am »

If only this weren't Memerson.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2018, 11:38:32 am »

If only this weren't Memerson.

Why does Emerson have such a bad reputation on here?
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2018, 12:50:24 pm »

If only this weren't Memerson.

Why does Emerson have such a bad reputation on here?

Not sure?
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Speaker YE
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« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2018, 12:52:52 pm »

If only this weren't Memerson.

Why does Emerson have such a bad reputation on here?

Emerson is landline only. Empty quote this if you have a landline.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2018, 12:59:05 pm »

If only this weren't Memerson.

Why does Emerson have such a bad reputation on here?

Emerson is landline only. Empty quote this if you have a landline.

They use an online component to simulate calling cellphones. Not great, but better than they were.
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IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ
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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2018, 01:46:37 pm »

For the sake of all of us (especially our WI posters) I hope this wonít be one of those all-nighters, regardless of who wins.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2018, 02:54:18 pm »

Sabato's Crystal Ball has this race as Lean D now: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2018-governor/
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President Johnson
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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2018, 02:59:57 pm »

Three losin' Scotts: Scott Walker, Scott Wagner, Rick Scott
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2018, 05:19:15 pm »

Three losin' Scotts: Scott Walker, Scott Wagner, Rick Scott

This is ironic. However, their margins of defeat will vary. Wagner looks set to lose by ~20-25 points, but Walker and Scott will keep their losing margins to within 5 points or so.
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cg41386
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« Reply #21 on: November 05, 2018, 05:25:14 pm »

If only this weren't Memerson.

Why does Emerson have such a bad reputation on here?

Emerson is landline only. Empty quote this if you have a landline.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #22 on: November 05, 2018, 07:06:44 pm »

Three losin' Scotts: Scott Walker, Scott Wagner, Rick Scott

Probably not Phil though.

It's a funny coincidence though if it happens. It's like the inverse of 2014 when every Mark lost, except for Mark Warner who almost lost.
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Dukakisite1988
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« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2018, 07:50:21 am »

I fear some shy Walker voters. Let's see.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2018, 10:36:45 am »

I fear some shy Walker voters. Let's see.
Yep, I'm thinking this is what's going on too. Just like the shy Trump voter effect struck in most of the Midwest.
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