Would Hillary Clinton have won without the comey letter

[Da2017]

Had Comey followed protocol would Hillary have squeaked by to win? She was unlucky to have the spotlight on her in the last week. Whoever made headlines would see their poll numbers.

[IceSpear]

Obviously.

[Da2017]

 

Assuming a 1 to 2% swing towards Clinton

[Liberalrocks]

Obviously yes and with the map above.

[mgop]

trump would won all 538 without all fabrications and hysterical campaign by mass media

[AudmanOut]

Probably .

[AtorBoltox]

Yeah, by about 6%

[Hammy]

No. Her poll numbers were falling before that, and at the absolute most Wisconsin and Michigan might've stayed D. The overwhelming majority of voters had already made up their minds before the Comey letter and probably anyone who used that as an excuse not to vote for her wasn't planning on doing so anyway and would've cited something else instead.

[Tweedledum]

No. Her poll numbers were falling before that, and at the absolute most Wisconsin and Michigan might've stayed D. The overwhelming majority of voters had already made up their minds before the Comey letter and probably anyone who used that as an excuse not to vote for her wasn't planning on doing so anyway and would've cited something else instead.

PA was about as close as WI was, though. If WI flips, doesn't PA also have a decent chance of flipping?

BTW, the race might have gone into the House of Representatives had Trump held PA but lost MI and WI. It all depends on those two Trump electors that went rogue in real life.

[TML]

Maybe.

Exit polls suggest that late-breaking voters flipped WI, MI, PA, and FL to Trump, but we don't know how much of this was due to the Comey letter - I think another factor was Republican voters coming home.

[Hammy]

No. Her poll numbers were falling before that, and at the absolute most Wisconsin and Michigan might've stayed D. The overwhelming majority of voters had already made up their minds before the Comey letter and probably anyone who used that as an excuse not to vote for her wasn't planning on doing so anyway and would've cited something else instead.

PA was about as close as WI was, though. If WI flips, doesn't PA also have a decent chance of flipping?

BTW, the race might have gone into the House of Representatives had Trump held PA but lost MI and WI. It all depends on those two Trump electors that went rogue in real life.

The margin in WI was half of PA. MI and WI also had huge reductions in vote totals for both parties compared to 2012 so it's at least plausable that enough people changed their minds and skipped the Pres vote afterwards to make enough difference to flip the state.  Pennsylvania by contrast had Hillary down about 65k votes from Obama in 2012, but Trump was up almost 300,000 votes compared to Romney, so given the massive change in the R vote, and that I doubt people switched from Hillary to Trump over the Comey letter, and that Hillary was likely to be down from Obama regardless, is largely why I don't think PA would've flipped.

But in the end, one's view of how Hillary would've done without the Comey letter depends entirely on how they feel she would've done without it.

[pops]

No. Her poll numbers were falling before that, and at the absolute most Wisconsin and Michigan might've stayed D. The overwhelming majority of voters had already made up their minds before the Comey letter and probably anyone who used that as an excuse not to vote for her wasn't planning on doing so anyway and would've cited something else instead.

PA was about as close as WI was, though. If WI flips, doesn't PA also have a decent chance of flipping?

BTW, the race might have gone into the House of Representatives had Trump held PA but lost MI and WI. It all depends on those two Trump electors that went rogue in real life.

The margin in WI was half of PA. MI and WI also had huge reductions in vote totals for both parties compared to 2012 so it's at least plausable that enough people changed their minds and skipped the Pres vote afterwards to make enough difference to flip the state.  Pennsylvania by contrast had Hillary down about 65k votes from Obama in 2012, but Trump was up almost 300,000 votes compared to Romney, so given the massive change in the R vote, and that I doubt people switched from Hillary to Trump over the Comey letter, and that Hillary was likely to be down from Obama regardless, is largely why I don't think PA would've flipped.

But in the end, one's view of how Hillary would've done without the Comey letter depends entirely on how they feel she would've done without it.

Um...

WI: Trump +0.77
PA: Trump +0.72

[Hammy]

No. Her poll numbers were falling before that, and at the absolute most Wisconsin and Michigan might've stayed D. The overwhelming majority of voters had already made up their minds before the Comey letter and probably anyone who used that as an excuse not to vote for her wasn't planning on doing so anyway and would've cited something else instead.

PA was about as close as WI was, though. If WI flips, doesn't PA also have a decent chance of flipping?

BTW, the race might have gone into the House of Representatives had Trump held PA but lost MI and WI. It all depends on those two Trump electors that went rogue in real life.

The margin in WI was half of PA. MI and WI also had huge reductions in vote totals for both parties compared to 2012 so it's at least plausable that enough people changed their minds and skipped the Pres vote afterwards to make enough difference to flip the state.  Pennsylvania by contrast had Hillary down about 65k votes from Obama in 2012, but Trump was up almost 300,000 votes compared to Romney, so given the massive change in the R vote, and that I doubt people switched from Hillary to Trump over the Comey letter, and that Hillary was likely to be down from Obama regardless, is largely why I don't think PA would've flipped.

But in the end, one's view of how Hillary would've done without the Comey letter depends entirely on how they feel she would've done without it.

Um...

WI: Trump +0.77
PA: Trump +0.72

Vote margin.

PA: Trump +44k
WI: Trump +23k

Raw vote (not % ) was where my analysis was based.

[Mr. Smith]

Absolutely.

She probably would've flipped Arizona & Nebraska CD-2, add those to held margins in 2 of WI/MI/PA and she wins without Florida...or in some cases without Pennsylvania too.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

No i don't think so. I mean to my belief it wasn't that kind of a huge story and it's effect would be quite minimal. 2016 was all about a vote for change and a vote against Clinton and Washington. And people largely made their mind already about Clinton. I don't think the Comey letter would have changed that. I think at most only the resultf of Michigan could have been changed because it was so close.

[mvd10]

Yeah, probably. She only needed a tiny swing to win the EV and the Comey letter reinforced a lot of the Hillary stereotypes. Blame Comey. Hillary with a GOP senate (not sure whether it actually would have happened though) to stall it all would have been a terrific result, and the 2018 midterms would have been truly amazing.

[TDAS04]

Probably. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Maybe.

Exit polls suggest that late-breaking voters flipped WI, MI, PA, and FL to Trump, but we don't know how much of this was due to the Comey letter - I think another factor was Republican voters coming home.

There were also the Wikileaks emails.

[J. J.]

No. Her poll numbers were falling before that, and at the absolute most Wisconsin and Michigan might've stayed D. The overwhelming majority of voters had already made up their minds before the Comey letter and probably anyone who used that as an excuse not to vote for her wasn't planning on doing so anyway and would've cited something else instead.

This.  Hillary was slipping before the letter, though it obviously didn't help.

[TomC]

The fainting spell at the van probably hurt more. People voting based on the “email scandal” probably had their minds made up.

[SInNYC]

Maybe.

Exit polls suggest that late-breaking voters flipped WI, MI, PA, and FL to Trump, but we don't know how much of this was due to the Comey letter - I think another factor was Republican voters coming home.

According to CNN's exit polls,  the H-T split was:

when	Nation	WI	MI	PA	FL
last few days	43-43	30-57	NA	37-53	46-48
last week	41-49	NA	NA	NA	NA
Oct	37-51	39-54	35-55	54-41	46-47
Sept	46-48	40-50	NA	42-56	46-52
earlier	52-45	52-46	52-46	48-51	50-48

The Comey letter was Oct 28, 9 days before the election, and the second letter clearing her was 2 days before the election; thus, reflected closest in the first two rows. So, Hillary's dive was in October before the letter, and she actually improved a bit after the first letter nationally (no state data). It seems to me it was more because of the usual swing of undecideds against the incumbent (which she effectively was).

Of course, with the election being so close in the big swing states, every little thing makes a difference. But its hard to find a Comey effect in the exit polls especially considering Hillary needed to win all 3 of WI/MI/PA.

Another way of looking at things: the same exit polls show that 5% of voters made their decision in the last week (4% in MI). The H-T split would have needed about 17 more points (more in FL)  in that period for Hillary to have won all 3 of MI/WI/PA.

[Woody]

No doubt she would have won, but that's mostly her own fault.