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| | | |-+  GA-20/20 Insight: Abrams +4
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Author Topic: GA-20/20 Insight: Abrams +4  (Read 1038 times)
Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« on: November 02, 2018, 09:17:57 pm »

Abrams 50
Kemp 46

614 LVs
+/- 4%

Here's The Poll

Still looking for the actual poll itself, but it's mentioned here.

Worth noting that their Twitter and website haven't been updated in years, and the director of the polling firm (at least when it was last updated) is a former Executive Director for the Democratic Party of Georgia. The organization that commissioned the poll is also ran by former DPG/YDG officers.

Basically, it's probably appropriate to treat this like a Democratic internal.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2018, 10:17:42 am by Fmr. Pres. Griff »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2018, 10:24:38 pm »

So yeah, the race is basically dead even. That's pretty clear at this point.
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2018, 10:26:03 pm »

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Prolocutor Bagel23
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2018, 10:30:31 pm »

Lean R
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2018, 01:35:53 am »


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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2018, 04:50:31 am »

Big if true, probably wrong unfortunately.
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2018, 05:34:26 am »

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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2018, 11:03:25 am »

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WULFRIC PROJECTION:

U.S. House District 6
Democratic Primary Runoff

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Kevin Abel
26,735   53.9%   

Lucy McBath
22,883   46.1   
49,618 votes, 89% reporting (184 of 207 precincts)

Lincoln Assemblyman Peanut
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2018, 11:04:34 am »


Please let her win
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2018, 10:23:22 am »

Finally found the poll (linked in OP).

Some nuggets from it:

Quote
Abrams favorability: 45/37
Kemp favorability: 36/42

And have you already voted early this year, and if not, how likely are you to vote?

66 Already Voted
34 Very Likely To Vote

How do you think Donald Trump is doing as President? Excellent, good, only fair or poor?

Excellent 36
Good 10
Only Fair 5
Poor 48

How do you think Nathan Deal is doing as Governor? Excellent, good, only fair or poor?

Excellent 23
Good 32
Only Fair 21
Poor 15

They also polled downballot:

Quote
Lt Gov:
48 Sarah Riggs Amico (D)
46 Geoff Duncan (R)

Attorney General:
48 Charlie Bailey (D)
45 Chris Carr (R)

Secretary of State:
48 John Barrow (D)
42 Brad Raffensperger (R)

PSC 1:
45 Lindy Miller (D)
42 Chuck Eaton (R)

PSC 2:
44 Dawn Randolph (D)
41 Tricia Pridemore (R)
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2018, 10:33:08 am »

Ugh, it's one of those Good/Fair polls.
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2018, 08:19:28 pm »

Why isn't this poll mentioned in 538? Is there some methodological flaw that disqualifies it?
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2018, 02:16:27 am »

Why isn't this poll mentioned in 538? Is there some methodological flaw that disqualifies it?

I only found it because I just so happened to Google over the past 24 hours new polls of Georgia, and at the time, the only reference was in a Slate article without linking to the poll. I just so happened to discover the full poll linked on Facebook, so it may be that this poll wasn't published/promoted enough to get visibility.
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2018, 04:47:26 am »

Finally found the poll (linked in OP).

Some nuggets from it:

Quote
Abrams favorability: 45/37
Kemp favorability: 36/42

And have you already voted early this year, and if not, how likely are you to vote?

66 Already Voted
34 Very Likely To Vote

How do you think Donald Trump is doing as President? Excellent, good, only fair or poor?

Excellent 36
Good 10
Only Fair 5
Poor 48

How do you think Nathan Deal is doing as Governor? Excellent, good, only fair or poor?

Excellent 23
Good 32
Only Fair 21
Poor 15

They also polled downballot:

Quote
Lt Gov:
48 Sarah Riggs Amico (D)
46 Geoff Duncan (R)

Attorney General:
48 Charlie Bailey (D)
45 Chris Carr (R)

Secretary of State:
48 John Barrow (D)
42 Brad Raffensperger (R)

PSC 1:
45 Lindy Miller (D)
42 Chuck Eaton (R)

PSC 2:
44 Dawn Randolph (D)
41 Tricia Pridemore (R)

Are those down ballot races also subject to runoffs?

And:


But:

Big if true, probably wrong unfortunately.
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2018, 04:55:56 am »

Are those down ballot races also subject to runoffs?

Yep - every race in Georgia at the state and local level (save for presidential elections, or municipal elections that use multi-seat/top # systems) is subject to a runoff if nobody garners 50% +1.
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