TN-Cygnal (R): Bredesen +14 ... among 18-35 year old Tennessee voters
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  TN-Cygnal (R): Bredesen +14 ... among 18-35 year old Tennessee voters
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Author Topic: TN-Cygnal (R): Bredesen +14 ... among 18-35 year old Tennessee voters  (Read 1759 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 16, 2018, 10:54:04 AM »

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50% Bredesen
36% Blackburn
  4% Others
10% Undecided

http://www.cygn.al/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/42432-Cygnal-TN-Toplines.pdf

That's not bad for Bredesen, considering Harold Ford lost 18-29 year olds by 49-51 in 2006 and the 30-44 year old crowd by a 44-54 margin ...

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/TN/S/01/epolls.0.html

They also asked about Taylor Swift and her endorsement, and while she's popular (but also unknown !) to the under 35 Tennesseans, her endorsement made virtually no difference.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2018, 11:34:01 AM »

In the NYT/Siena poll, this age group was more like Bredesen+2 or something.

Which would mean this poll here would point to a close race again overall ...
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2018, 11:39:59 AM »

This is possibly the best poll Bredesen has had in months.
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Politician
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2018, 11:57:50 AM »

N U T
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Badger
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« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2018, 12:07:59 PM »

No crosstabs or even raw data regarding respondents race. With these numbers, would bredesen perhaps be narrowly leading among White's 35 and under? I'd say it worst he's roughly tied.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2018, 12:43:28 PM »

This looks like junk.
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windjammer
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2018, 12:44:04 PM »

AAAAAAAAAH I'M LOSING MY MIND WHY CAN'T THEY POLL THE OVERALL ELECTORATE?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2018, 01:22:24 PM »

Millennials > Boomers
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2018, 04:10:19 PM »

Is this a good poll for Bredesen?
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History505
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2018, 04:22:06 PM »

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cvparty
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2018, 05:11:40 PM »

i mean it’s a pub pollster having bredesen up double digits w young voters. if the age gap isn’t super big he’s prob tied or even leading
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2018, 06:07:39 PM »

I expect a larger than usual age gap in this race (for TN, which has smaller than average age gaps), but it's tough to tell from a one-demographic poll like that.  I expect that the age gap in TN-SEN will be significantly greater than that in TN-GOV.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2018, 06:11:20 PM »

AAAAAAAAAH I'M LOSING MY MIND WHY CAN'T THEY POLL THE OVERALL ELECTORATE?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2018, 06:12:55 PM »

Stop trying to lend credence to polls of State Senate districts or only one demographic or whatever to push your narrative.
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Badger
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« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2018, 06:28:13 PM »

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2018, 06:31:46 PM »

NY times Polls did quick surveys and they were right after Kavanaugh bounce. Dems are gonna do well on election night😁
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2018, 01:59:21 AM »

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diptheriadan
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« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2018, 02:00:22 AM »

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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2018, 07:39:51 PM »

According to the FOX Voter Analysis ("Enhanced Exit Poll"):

18-34:
Senate- Bredesen +4
Governor- Dean +1

Now, the traditional exit poll shows a different story (Bredesen +39, Dean +16) and a larger gap between the two, and the truth may lie somewhere in the middle of the two characterizations.

Among 18-44 (race/gender groups only broken down this way, and FOX showed very little difference between 18-29 and 30-44 in the Senate- albeit some in the gubernatorial race-, so this may be reasonable):

Whites:
Governor- Lee +24
Senator- Blackburn +3

Non-Whites:
Governor- Dean +70
Senator- Bredesen +73 (Hispanics were only Bredesen +13, but there aren't very many in TN, so this mostly reflects the black vote)



Men:
Governor- Lee +10
Senator- Blackburn +3

Women:
Governor- Tie
Senator- Bredesen +10


So my prediction of Lee far outperforming Blackburn with young voters is kind of true, but not to the degree I expected in this FOX poll (and Blackburn held up somewhat better than I worried, especially due to young populations in trendier areas of Nashville that have little in common with most of Tennessee).
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