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December 11, 2018, 05:22:25 pm
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News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

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| | | |-+  MOScout McCaskill and Hawley Tied. Democrats lead by 11 in Auditors contest.
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Author Topic: MOScout McCaskill and Hawley Tied. Democrats lead by 11 in Auditors contest.  (Read 1161 times)
Jimmie
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« on: November 03, 2018, 08:22:11 am »

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5bdd858aaa4a99c185e72f11/1541244300045/MOScout+Weekly+Poll+11.3.pdf

McCaskill and Hawley at 47% Each.

Galloway leads McDowell 49 to 38.

My final predictions:

Hawley 49 to McCaskill 47

Galloway 53 to McDowell 44.

and I promise next cycle I will broaden my horizons and be able to contribute more outside of Midwestern politics, specifically Missouri and Illinois... Thank you!
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2016 was a one off.....
Polarized Elastic Libertarian MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2018, 08:26:21 am »

Yikes, terrible poll for Hawley. Say hello to majority leader Schumer if this is accurate.
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Jimmie
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2018, 08:28:06 am »

Yikes, terrible poll for Hawley. Say hello to majority leader Schumer if this is accurate.

What are you talking about? I am like for sure that Hawley will win at the end based on logic.
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Polarized Elastic Libertarian MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2018, 08:32:46 am »

Yikes, terrible poll for Hawley. Say hello to majority leader Schumer if this is accurate.

What are you talking about? I am like for sure that Hawley will win at the end based on logic.

If McCaskill and Bredesen are tied at this point, they’re more likely than not to win on election day, and NV+AZ+TN-ND (although I could see Heitkamp winning if the wave is big enough) gets them to 51. That’s assuming that polling is accurate and not underestimating Republican strength, which we obviously don’t know.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2018, 08:36:48 am »

Yikes, terrible poll for Hawley. Say hello to majority leader Schumer if this is accurate.

What are you talking about? I am like for sure that Hawley will win at the end based on logic.
I think he’s referring to the fact Hawley has lead in this poll
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2018, 08:44:21 am »

Last week's Remington poll had Hawley winning by four.
So yeah, a tie now isn't all that great news for him.
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2018, 08:46:00 am »

If Hawley can't even win this race then its time he calls it quits on his political career.
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The Inevitable Kevin Stitt
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2018, 08:54:12 am »

If Hawley can't even win this race then its time he calls it quits on his political career.

Why? No one else in the MO GOP would be doing much if any better. Hawley’s still likely to win, chill
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Jimmie
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2018, 08:54:50 am »

If Hawley can't even win this race then its time he calls it quits on his political career.

Why? No one else in the MO GOP would be doing much if any better. Hawley’s still likely to win, chill

Do you agree with my final margins? Hawley 49 to 47 and Galloway 52 to 44?
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2018, 08:58:09 am »

Yikes, terrible poll for Hawley. Say hello to majority leader Schumer if this is accurate.

What are you talking about? I am like for sure that Hawley will win at the end based on logic.

Depends on what logic you're using. Logic would also tell you that Claire is the incumbent in a D-leaning year, so undecideds would more than likely break for her.
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2018, 09:43:14 am »

McCaskill looks to be getting a bounce at just the right time.
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2018, 10:04:10 am »

McCaskill looks to be getting a bounce at just the right time.

There was some pretty scathing reporting out of the Kansas City Star that Hawley has essentailly been MIA during his entire two years as AG.
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Beto 2020!
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2018, 10:10:06 am »

If Hawley can't even win this race then its time he calls it quits on his political career.

And yet we have people here who unironically believe that Doug Jones is DOA in 2020.
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Mondale
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2018, 10:32:34 am »

If Hawley can't even win this race then its time he calls it quits on his political career.

Candidate quality in action lol. Central casting stiffs like Hawley are only electable when the enviorment favors their party.
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2018, 10:40:50 am »

Net gain of 4 for McCaskill since Remington's last poll in October.

It does seem that whatever 'Kavanaugh Bump' there was here has faded.
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2018, 10:48:04 am »

The Kavanaugh bump (which was real in Senate races, less so in the House), appears to be receding at the worst possible time for the GOP
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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2018, 10:58:22 am »

The Kavanaugh bump (which was real in Senate races, less so in the House), appears to be receding at the worst possible time for the GOP

I'd rather say that McCaskill's efforts defining Hawley as "Empty Suit" and "Carpetbeggar" are quite effiective while he is unable to counter these. McCaskill made herself immune to Mr Trump's appeal to the anti-ímmigration rhetorics by simply supporting him 100 % and delivering this message.

I am still not convinced that she will win in the end yet I acknolwedge her fighting instincts which seem to be intact. She reversed the worrisome trend of late October but it is unclear if this 11th hour effort will be enough. 

Mr Hawley does not appear to be a born fighter, rather "born with a silver foot in his mouth".

I do not know if this poll is accurate, but the trend of Delta=+4 % for Mrs McCaskill cetainly is real.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2018, 11:04:48 am by Aurelio21 »Logged
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2018, 11:09:59 am »

This one's gonna be close, and the trend is good for McCaskill. This might be the last race I make up my mind about in terms of my predictions. I think that if McCaskill does win, that's at least 50 seats for Democrats.
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« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2018, 12:02:14 pm »

Remington underestimated Trump's margin in 2016

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Michigan

Undecideds will break for Hawley and they are likely overestimating McCaskill's performance...Hawley will win by +7
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Brittain33
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« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2018, 12:15:56 pm »

The Kavanaugh bump (which was real in Senate races, less so in the House), appears to be receding at the worst possible time for the GOP

Again, can you even imagine if there were an open SC seat now and a less radioactive Republican nominee, and McCaskill had to answer for how she'd vote on the nominee? She'd be dead meat.
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« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2018, 12:19:51 pm »

I wonder how much Hawley lying about pre-existing conditions is hurting him here. I know voters are dumb, but that lie was the most shameless thing I have heard this entire cycle.
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« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2018, 12:22:38 pm »

Remington underestimated Trump's margin in 2016

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Michigan

Undecideds will break for Hawley and they are likely overestimating McCaskill's performance...Hawley will win by +7

Actually, it is true that Remington has a Democratic bias. According to FiveThirtyEight's pollster rankings, Remington has overestimated Democrats by an average of 1.1% relative to historical election results.
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« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2018, 12:25:04 pm »

Remington underestimated Trump's margin in 2016

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Michigan

Undecideds will break for Hawley and they are likely overestimating McCaskill's performance...Hawley will win by +7

Actually, it is true that Remington has a Democratic bias. According to FiveThirtyEight's pollster rankings, Remington has overestimated Democrats by an average of 1.1% relative to historical election results.

At least for their adjusted polls average, they're saying Remington is biased against Democrats to the tune of... 4.5 points. So they're saying this poll is McCaskill +4.5.

Not that I'm really putting much faith in their adjustments versus the simple average.
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« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2018, 01:27:24 pm »

Nice! So much for McCaskill being DOA for the 87th time.
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« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2018, 01:33:58 pm »

If Hawley can't even win this race then its time he calls it quits on his political career.

And yet we have people here who unironically believe that Doug Jones is DOA in 2020.

McCaskill winning by the skin of her teeth in a big Dem wave hardly bodes well for Jones in a state that is far more Republican, far less elastic, far more racially polarized, and during an unknown political climate when Trump is guaranteed to carry the state by at least 20 points simultaneously.
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