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| | |-+  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
| | | |-+  Change Research (D internal): Cruz +0 in TX, Nelson +2 in FL
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Author Topic: Change Research (D internal): Cruz +0 in TX, Nelson +2 in FL  (Read 1735 times)
DataGuy
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« on: November 03, 2018, 10:42:32 am »

Cruz (R): 49%
O'Rourke (D): 49%

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1058740322530820097

Nelson (D): 50%
Scott (R): 48%

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1058738965149233153

Once again, these polls are sponsored by Democrats.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2018, 10:43:05 am »

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DataGuy
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2018, 10:46:07 am »

I started a thread just seconds before you, but mine also includes the poll from FL. Could we merge them?
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new_patomic
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2018, 10:46:11 am »

Do I want to believe? Yes.

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Polarized Elastic Libertarian MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2018, 10:46:14 am »

Another Nelson +2 poll, wtf...
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2018, 10:47:30 am »

I don't believe the Texas numbers but the Florida numbers just reinforce the narrative that Nelson is slightly up but Scott could win if enough Democrats stay home and enough Independents get cold feet once they get in the booth.
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History505
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2018, 10:48:13 am »

Texas race is tightening, that Cruz +10 poll seemed like an outlier compared to other polls showing a Cruz lead of 3-6 points, and now this one showing it even more narrow with a tie.
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DaWN
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2018, 10:48:52 am »

O'Rourke winning would be great but...

a) Internal
b) He's not coming close to winning if Nelson is only up by 2

I believe this can be disposed of
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2018, 10:50:41 am »

Texas race is tightening, that Cruz +10 poll seemed like an outlier compared to other polls showing a Cruz lead of 3-6 points, and now this one showing it even more narrow with a tie.

And the polls from the same people have been all over the place. Some pollster have Tester and Donnely up by a lot, have McCaskill and Rosen doing pretty well and then have people turning their backs on Sinema and Nelson...and vice versa.
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mgop
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2018, 10:50:53 am »

Texas race is tightening, that Cruz +10 poll seemed like an outlier compared to other polls showing a Cruz lead of 3-6 points, and now this one showing it even more narrow with a tie.

lol if anything is outlier, this "tie" junk poll is
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History505
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2018, 10:54:16 am »

Texas race is tightening, that Cruz +10 poll seemed like an outlier compared to other polls showing a Cruz lead of 3-6 points, and now this one showing it even more narrow with a tie.

lol if anything is outlier, this "tie" junk poll is
If Cruz wins, he's not winning by double digits lol.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2018, 10:56:47 am »

I started a thread just seconds before you, but mine also includes the poll from FL. Could we merge them?

Fine with me.  I'll ask a mod.
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2018, 11:11:16 am »

538 says it has a R+0.8 House Effect
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2018, 11:12:23 am »

It's obviously junk but no one can deny anymore it has been a good week for democrats given all the polls showing a tie in races that shouldn't be competitive (TX, TN,...)
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2018, 11:13:26 am »

Sweat Ted....sweat
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2018, 11:14:02 am »

Do I want to believe? Yes.

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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2018, 11:14:33 am »

All of these red state Sen districts are recalibrating after their Kavanaugh highs have worn off. It would be surprising if Beto won but not shocking since he is knocking on the door. Looks like a tight race.
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2018, 11:18:14 am »

Not buying a reverse MI-PRES 2016 yet, especially since reputable pollsters still find Cruz up by 4-6.
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« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2018, 11:20:28 am »

TX will be closer than TN.
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« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2018, 11:23:26 am »

eh
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« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2018, 11:26:13 am »

Another Nelson +2 poll, wtf...

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Trump Is Innocent
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« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2018, 11:43:54 am »

I believe that Rafael Edward 'Ted' Cruz will defeat Robert Francis O'Rourke at a margin of low double digits.

« Last Edit: November 03, 2018, 12:11:24 pm by Brittain33 »Logged

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« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2018, 11:51:50 am »

538 says it has a R+0.8 House Effect

So is that (D internal) thing real or just editorializing?
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« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2018, 11:55:04 am »

Cruz has yet to show that he is anything other than a lapdog for Donald Trump.

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« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2018, 11:56:00 am »

Spaceman will win....

Looks like there is a last mintute trend in Beto's favor. Hope it's enough to carry him over the finish line and oust the obstructionist-in-chief. But I remain doubtful until Wednesday morning.
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