Change Research (D internal): Cruz +0 in TX, Nelson +2 in FL

[OSR stands with Israel]

538 adjusted margin is +1.4 Republican

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/texas/

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 says it has a R+0.8 House Effect

So is that (D internal) thing real or just editorializing?

The (D) or (R) marker should be based on who sponsors the poll, not necessarily the pollster that conducts it.  (This is something that annoys me about people who claim all PPP polls are D; many of them are, but not all.)  In this case, the polls were sponsored by Reason to Believe PAC, whose website describes them as "a grassroots organization dedicated to helping elect progressive Democrats in 2018 and 2020. We are not affiliated with any candidate or individual."  So the (D) marker is appropriate for these.

Regarding their R+0.8 bias at 538: Change Research is a relatively new pollster, and their 538 rating is based on a very small number of polls.  Unlike 538's poll database, which is constantly being updated, they update the pollster ratings very infrequently.  I think the current ratings were generated in May.

[Person Man]

That makes it still really close for both races.

[DataGuy]

538 says it has a R+0.8 House Effect

So is that (D internal) thing real or just editorializing?

FiveThirtyEight does label it a Democratic internal, so they assume by default it's probably biased toward the Democratic candidates. That's why their house effect calculation moves it toward Cruz by 1.4%, although their poll rankings show that Change Research has a mean-reverted bias of R+0.8.

They are very different things, as house effects judge polls against the average of the other polls (in other words, it tries to make all polls conform to the polling average, thus making the assumption that the average is right), while bias measures polls based on their performance relative to actual historical election results. I prefer to use the latter, so in my opinion this poll really is something to worry about for Cruz.

Of course, campaigns do have a tendency to release their very best internal numbers to try to shape public perception of the race, which is why publicly-released internal polls are generally viewed with suspicion.

[wbrocks67]

Change Research is not a D internal.

It's odd to me that people seem to not be able to grasp that TX could be close. It's not that surprising?

[Person Man]

538 says it has a R+0.8 House Effect

So is that (D internal) thing real or just editorializing?

FiveThirtyEight does label it a Democratic internal, so they assume by default it's probably biased toward the Democratic candidates. That's why their house effect calculation moves it toward Cruz by 1.4%, although their poll rankings show that Change Research has a mean-reverted bias of R+0.8.

They are very different things, as house effects judge polls against the average of the other polls (in other words, it tries to make all polls conform to the polling average, thus making the assumption that the average is right), while bias measures polls based on their performance relative to actual historical election results. I prefer to use the latter, so in my opinion this poll really is something to worry about for Cruz.

Of course, campaigns do have a tendency to release their very best internal numbers to try to shape public perception of the race, which is why publicly-released internal polls are generally viewed with suspicion.

Beto will win if people show up. Nelson wins in Independents follow through. Democrats MAY have a problem with people who change their votes at the last minute...even in the voting booth. anecdotally, in college I heard of girl say "I was going to vote for Kerry and then I got in the voting booth and then felt this 'presence' that made me vote for Bush instead". For all we know, she could have just been trying to annoy democrats on election night but you never know. Maybe democrats have a problem with closing or the Republicans are just better closers.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gillum and Beto are upsetting the GOP, in states, that they were supposed to win

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Beto will win if people show up.

Not true.  Beto will lose if Republican people show up.

[Person Man]

Beto will win if people show up.

Not true.  Beto will lose if only Republican people show up.

And they are the only ones who have shown up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brennan and San Antonio Spurs just endorsed Beto. Remember, the winning side always have an upset in elections. 2012, Heidi won, 2016 Johnson won and now it can happen in TN and TX😄

[Suburban Republican]

If Democrats pull an upset on Tuesday night, I guarantee everyone here it will be this race.

[MT Treasurer]

Their TX numbers are accurate, confirming the Beto surge/enthusiasm not only in early voting but on election day as Cruz is swept away in the Democratic earthslide ! Clearly Beto is more likely to win than Hawley, Braun, and Cramer !

The FL numbers are junk poll, no way Spaceman only beats Scott by 2 in a Democratic tidal wave when Scott only won by 1 in two GOP wave years !

[DrScholl]

It's possible for Texas to be this close. The wild card is new voters that might not have been picked up in likely voter screens. Looking at Cruz's feed on Twitter he is campaigning like someone who is in an incredibly close race.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

If Democrats pull an upset on Tuesday night, I guarantee everyone here it will be this race.

Eh, I wouldn't really think of FL as an upset. While a number of people did think Nelson was in trouble early while Scott was running tens of millions of dollars of ads unopposed, that has generally cleared up and I think most people now recognize that Nelson is at least somewhat the favorite, although Scott is not totally out of it.

[Suburban Republican]

I was talking about Texas.

[Calthrina950]

Ted Cruz is still clearly favored, but I now think it likely that O'Rourke will keep the losing margin within five points. It would take a miracle for him to actually pull it off on Tuesday.

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Texas Senator by Change Research on 2018-11-02

Summary: D: 49%, R: 49%, I: 0%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Florida Senator by  Change Research on 2018-11-02

Summary: D: 50%, R: 48%, I: 0%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I have never changed my prediction regarding Texas cause I've always believed in BETO! 🙌🏻 🙏🏻

[President Johnson]

I have never changed my prediction regarding Texas cause I've always believed in BETO! 🙌🏻 🙏🏻

Hope you're right, but I don't think it's going to happen. Beto may come within striking distance though.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I have never changed my prediction regarding Texas cause I've always believed in BETO! 🙌🏻 🙏🏻

Hope you're right, but I don't think it's going to happen. Beto may come within striking distance though.

The development of the percentages in Texas remind me of this:
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2014/polls.php?fips=24

[MT Treasurer]

It’s so sad to see all these junk polls being added to the database and wreaking havoc.

[President Johnson]

It’s so sad to see all these junk polls being added to the database and wreaking havoc.

Beto down by a point (adjusted margin) is still more reasonable than the trashy polls showing Newsom only up by single digits.

[Mr. Illini]

Cruz is going to win this by a point, which will be worse than if he had just won by 10

[IceSpear]

It’s so sad to see all these junk polls being added to the database and wreaking havoc.

You know who we can thank for that...